This image from last weekend’s game…with the villain clearly pictured
Until we look at the picture another way:
Pot meets kettle, in a picture.
Modern College Football, In a Picture
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Tag Archives: #culture
Go Gators: Mumme Voters High on Hogtown, Too
We should all hang our heads in shame.
Others receiving votes: Duke, Boise State, App State
In regards to our thoughts on the bonus questions:
Most Overrated – Texas A&M at 30%, with Texas not far behind at 25%. 14% of you said LSU, and another 12% said Oklahoma (we will find out soon enough, won’t we?)
Most Underrated – Mississippi State at 42%, with Florida and Kentucky getting the next highest nod at 16% each.
Most Likely to Make the CFP – Y’all went with a narrow field, only selecting Georgia (70%), Texas (21%), Ole Miss (7%) and a lone vote for Alabama (2%).
Also, we clearly don’t like the B1G, at all. And I agree and understand.
Wednesday Wondering: Did Watching Football Peak in 2017?
At least, maybe, for Dawg fans?
The National Championships were great, don’t get me wrong. 2022 Peach Bowl was cinema. But I’m not sure it ever got better than this.
Im not sure I’ll witness a game like that again in my lifetime, though the 2022 Ohio State game was close. But that felt more like a “we escaped”. The Rose Bowl was pure, unbridled joy and happiness. It signaled that the long 40 years of frustration might actually be turning into something unfamiliar…Hope.
What a time to be alive.
Discuss.
Your September 23rd Reminder that Auburns Sucks
I’m just going to leave this here:
Not sure if that’s more of an indictment on Auburn or if it’s speaking to the Jorts Wearing Optimists in Hogtown’s false positives about Florida being back.
Rooting very very hard for Trinidad and Company to tamper down the Gators this weekend.
Special Incentives
Shot:
Chaser:
Kirby is probably being a little tongue in cheek, but if it yields more special teams plays like that, how can one complain?
Of course, I’d like to see a few more of these, too:
How much do they make for each one of those?
A Bunch of News About Nothing
A few items that came out on Monday. First, as expected, Georgia and Clemson “mutually agreed” to cancel games scheduled for 2029-2033.
Why? Well, that’s why I called this a bunch of news about nothing. They can say what they want, bottom line is the expanded CFP doesn’t compel Georgia to take chances, and Clemson really, really doesn’t want that Georgia smoke. No one would say it, though.
Secondly, Kirby updated the status of Nate Frazier.
On Monday, Smart spoke with reporters and he was asked about Frazier again.
“Yeah. Nate, I think’s going to be fine. It’s going to be day-to-day. Uh, expect him to be able to play,” Smart said.
What his injury is exactly is unknown, but that is a common occurrence with the Georgia Bulldogs. Smart usually hands out as little details as possible when it comes to his injured players. The program is pretty vague about them.
Frazier ran for 75 yards and a score before exiting the game on Saturday. Through three games, he has amassed 202 rushing yards and five touchdowns on just 24 carries. He has been the most efficient runner for the Dawgs.
Why is this nothing? Kind of feels like there’s two fields of responses to this: he’s going to be out a while, or he’s day-to-day.
To be clear, Dante Dowdell was in an ATV accident that apparently was near death and caused him some serious disabilities, and Kirby spoke about it like he might’ve sprained his wrist…until more details came out.
Nate Frazier could be dealing with a slipped disc, fractured tibia, and a broken heart, and Kirby isn’t going to tell you about it. Will Frazier really be available Saturday…who knows.
Gunner and His Expected Points Added
Tom Fornelli rolled this out on socials yesterday:
What is this? It’s EPA (Expected Points Added) per dropback.
Well what the hell is Expected Points Added? It’s for Moneyball fans, I suppose, but here’s a breakdown of what it means, thanks to an article from 2022 on Dawgs Central:
EPA is one of the stats which we will reference a lot on this site as we break down not only the X and O’s of the game, but add to the context with some advanced stats. It stands for “Expected Points Added” and all you need to realize is that is give a number to each and every play’s result based on:
- Down
- Distance
- Field Position
An offense wants a high number for a play and opposite is true for the defense. A play has an “expected value” based on the conditions of the play. A 3rd and 11 from your own 19 isn’t expected to add as much “value” as 2nd and 3 inside the opponent’s red zone. An offense that can convert a 3rd and 11 on a consistent basis will have a higher average EPA and will likely be one of the more explosive offenses. Ohio State ranked #2 in Offensive EPA in 2021 and 1st in Points Per Game (46.3). That is the picture of efficiency. Georgia had a EPA average of .302 which was good for 17th in all of FBS (10th in Power 5) and 11th (38.7) in Points per game. That points to efficiency, high valued plays tend to put points on the board. Teams which you wouldn’t expect to see, but had both high average EPA and PPG.
In other words, Gunner is adding value on plays where he has to drop back. While it might not be pretty, and limited and a lot less than we’d like to see, even with the given struggles with Arkansas he’s adding value on drop backs. Maybe that’s why Bobo called a play action on first and goal from the 1, so shut my mouth. I also doubt Mike gives two craps about stats, so maybe a staffer whispered it to him before he called it.
We love each other and we don’t judge.
If that remains after facing a stout Oklahoma team remains to be seen.
Anyway, in searching around for 2026 team stats, I was able to find a few additional stats:
- Georgia is second in team EPA with a .55, second behind Miami and slightly ahead, um, Florida
- Georgia’s defensive EPA (which you want to be more negative) was only -0.4, and 54th among all defenses. Oklahoma’s defensive EPA is -.33, good for 6th in all of CFB.
- Oklahoma’s offensive EPA is barely .05, or 95th in College Football.
What does it mean?
Well, Georgia’s defensive EPA is being impacted a good bit by a few places where they find themselves in bad field position late in games. Given the short body of work, most of Georgia’s lackluster defensive EPA could be attributed to a lot of minutes by the 2s and 3s.
Oklahoma’s offensive EPA is being hurt by both (a) lousy offense and (b) stalling in places where they should shine. Given that EPA goes up the closer you are to the opposing goal line, the low number reflects that Oklahoma can’t move on the bad side of the field, and what’s worse, they can’t capitalize on short fields, either.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s defense could be the real deal, or they’ve played lousy offenses. New Mexico is 75th in Offensive EPA, while Michigan (who Oklahoma lost to) has one that is 86th. Michigan’s defensive EPA is right around Georgia’s at 49th, and New Mexico, thanks to a hapless Oklahoma performance and a solid, veteran defense, is 5th. Don’t overlook the fact that New Mexico has a quasi-NFL defense one the starting side.
In other words, you could likely expect Georgia-Oklahoma to look a little like Michigan-Oklahoma, though I believe Georgia’s got a better quarterback and offensive weapons than does Michigan. So do we worry about this weekend, or are we as good as the stats say?
Yes. We’re Georgia fans, so we worry.
No matter what the “stats” day.
Tell Me Again Not to Complain About the Entertainment
Good God almighty, what has ESPN done?
Alabama vs South Carolina could be one of the premier games of the 2026 SEC season, as could Florida at Missouri…and your evening entertainment for the SEC on October 3rd is a toss up between Arkansas and TAMU or LSU vs McNeese State?
I’d rather have MSU and Bama at 3:30 and a nightcap of Florida at Missouri. Frankly, they could not televise the LSU game and I don’t know if anyone outside of Louisiana would miss it.
It’s 2026, and I still DGAF about Arkansas or A&M. What is this?
Vegas High on Hogtown: Litigators v Gators
You’d think dispatching two Top 25 teams would have given Ole Miss some credit, but per Vegas and the betters, suddenly, Florida is favored against Ole Miss this weekend.
Why? Well, there’s several factors at play, and I’d argue a lot of it has to do with a short body of work, but since people like playing with data, here’s the breakdown:
- Ole Miss versus the Run – Jaden Baugh is one of the leading rushers in the SEC, while Ole Miss is worst in the SEC versus the run at 159 yards per game average, against Florida’s 5th best SEC average of 247.5 yards per game. BUT, Ole Miss has played two teams that are in the top 40 in rushing (LSU with 228 and Louisville with 211) while Florida’s stats were padded by going up against Campbell (no data), Florida Atlantic (second to last in rushing defense in all of NCAA FBS)…but did shred Auburn’s defense, which still sits in the Top 25 in rushing defense among all NCAA teams.
What’s notable is Florida’s pass defense is 78th in the nation, after going up against the 15th (FAU) and 47th (Auburn) ranked units in passing offense. Neither are filled with All-Stars and it’s likely that Florida hasn’t seen an offense like this all season.
2. Recency bias – 2024, Ole Miss comes in as the hot commodity but loses to an unranked Florida team, lead by Billy Napier. I guess someone in Vegas believes Ben Hill has “mystique”.
3. Let Down Factor – again, betting that Florida is a “let down” game for Ole Miss after the LSU game…but are they considering the Auburn game was a big game for Florida? Is Ole Miss a let down game for Sumrall’s group, too? Who knows.
This is a game where people are hedging their bets on stats and assumptions, and I can’t say they’re all totally wrong. The Florida folks haven’t been this high on themselves in a good long while, so Ben Hill Griffin will be hopping and it’s a 3:30 pm kickoff, to boot, so Natty Light, Jorts, and Orange State Optimism will be in high gear.
Some people aren’t buying it…yet…
I’ll be pulling for Ole Miss, and hoping that Florida’s momentum doesn’t build any higher. Nothing worse than an inspired Florida football fan, let alone an inspired football team.
If Florida wins, I hope it’s by the book and it’s the right way. You know how Ole Miss is when it comes to attorneys.
Monday Musings: What’s the Proper Mea Culpa?
Imagine you’ve headed to the ballgame for the weekend, ready to watch your highly funded, highly ranked home team go up against a perceived hapless opponent in conference play with their new head coach in their first road contest.
Imagine at the end, this is what the stadium looks like, and not in a good way.
After the game, this is what Mike Elko had to say after his yearly head-scratchingly odd loss when no one expected it:
At the end of the day, we didn’t have them ready.
This starts with me and I accept accountability.
We’re going to learn from this.
And so on. It’s as predictable as the day is long. Somehow, though, being a highly paid coach with a highly paid and deep roster doesn’t seem to make sense to fans who are being asked to carry a higher contribution and ticket price to experience this, so it falls on deaf ears, at least to me. How anyone in this day and age with a staff of nearly one hundred people using state of the art technology can be unprepared is beyond me.
For today’s Musing – what’s the thing you want to hear from a coach after a crappy loss like this? Does anything make it better…is there anything that could be said that actually makes you believe in the adjustment?
Discuss.