Vegas High on Hogtown: Litigators v Gators

You’d think dispatching two Top 25 teams would have given Ole Miss some credit, but per Vegas and the betters, suddenly, Florida is favored against Ole Miss this weekend.

Why? Well, there’s several factors at play, and I’d argue a lot of it has to do with a short body of work, but since people like playing with data, here’s the breakdown:

  1. Ole Miss versus the Run – Jaden Baugh is one of the leading rushers in the SEC, while Ole Miss is worst in the SEC versus the run at 159 yards per game average, against Florida’s 5th best SEC average of 247.5 yards per game. BUT, Ole Miss has played two teams that are in the top 40 in rushing (LSU with 228 and Louisville with 211) while Florida’s stats were padded by going up against Campbell (no data), Florida Atlantic (second to last in rushing defense in all of NCAA FBS)…but did shred Auburn’s defense, which still sits in the Top 25 in rushing defense among all NCAA teams.

What’s notable is Florida’s pass defense is 78th in the nation, after going up against the 15th (FAU) and 47th (Auburn) ranked units in passing offense. Neither are filled with All-Stars and it’s likely that Florida hasn’t seen an offense like this all season.

2. Recency bias – 2024, Ole Miss comes in as the hot commodity but loses to an unranked Florida team, lead by Billy Napier. I guess someone in Vegas believes Ben Hill has “mystique”.

3. Let Down Factor – again, betting that Florida is a “let down” game for Ole Miss after the LSU game…but are they considering the Auburn game was a big game for Florida? Is Ole Miss a let down game for Sumrall’s group, too? Who knows.

This is a game where people are hedging their bets on stats and assumptions, and I can’t say they’re all totally wrong. The Florida folks haven’t been this high on themselves in a good long while, so Ben Hill Griffin will be hopping and it’s a 3:30 pm kickoff, to boot, so Natty Light, Jorts, and Orange State Optimism will be in high gear.

Some people aren’t buying it…yet…

I’ll be pulling for Ole Miss, and hoping that Florida’s momentum doesn’t build any higher. Nothing worse than an inspired Florida football fan, let alone an inspired football team.

If Florida wins, I hope it’s by the book and it’s the right way. You know how Ole Miss is when it comes to attorneys.

Monday Musings: What’s the Proper Mea Culpa?

Imagine you’ve headed to the ballgame for the weekend, ready to watch your highly funded, highly ranked home team go up against a perceived hapless opponent in conference play with their new head coach in their first road contest.

Imagine at the end, this is what the stadium looks like, and not in a good way.

After the game, this is what Mike Elko had to say after his yearly head-scratchingly odd loss when no one expected it:

At the end of the day, we didn’t have them ready.

This starts with me and I accept accountability.

We’re going to learn from this.

And so on. It’s as predictable as the day is long. Somehow, though, being a highly paid coach with a highly paid and deep roster doesn’t seem to make sense to fans who are being asked to carry a higher contribution and ticket price to experience this, so it falls on deaf ears, at least to me. How anyone in this day and age with a staff of nearly one hundred people using state of the art technology can be unprepared is beyond me.

For today’s Musing – what’s the thing you want to hear from a coach after a crappy loss like this? Does anything make it better…is there anything that could be said that actually makes you believe in the adjustment?

Discuss.

We’re Still #2 – For Now: Week 3 Mumme Poll Now Open

It’s that time again…the learned council of idiots have chimed in with their rankings after three weeks of college football play.

Notably, Florida is ranked, and Oklahoma State, despite beating Oregon a week ago, remains unranked while Texas A&M remains after losing to *checks notes* Kentucky…at home.

It should also be noted that Indiana managed 38 points against the same WKU that allowed 70 against Georgia a week ago…and Notre Dame slogged their way through an ugly contest with Michigan State. Meanwhile, Darian Mensah has seemingly yet to allow a thrown ball to hit the ground and Miami is a scoring machine. Texas Tech barely escaped Houston, and Houston remained ranked.

And never mind that Ole Miss has now beaten two ranked teams, on in the top 10 last week, something no other team in the country has done (off the top of my head, I think). I’m a Georgia homer, but if that doesn’t spell #1 ranking, I don’t know what does.

Then again, here’s the voting:

Anyway, let’s right some wrongs with this week’s edition of the Mumme Poll

MASH HERE

Also this week: weigh in on the most overrated, most underrated, and most likely to head to the CFP in the SEC based on three weeks of play.

Have at it, Refugees.

What a Bargain

Honestly, they’re probably one step away from paying you to come to the game in Fayetteville today.

Nine dollars. Mind you, after the processing and fees, that’s probably twenty dollars, but if you’d told me I could get in to an SEC venue cheaper than a Georgia Tech game, I’d offer up the two hot dogs and two cokes to you as part of the deal.

If you happen to be in the area, it’s likely you can just walk in to the place.

I’m Not Paying for the Crab Legs

What was old is inevitably new again. Especially at Florida State.

Interesting. Why, though? Well, like all things college football today…it’s money.

Norvell remains unlikely to be fired if the Seminoles lose that game, but if the scoreline is ugly enough, it could lead to an immediate change. If that were to happen, the nearly $50 million he would be owed in a buyout would strap FSU financially in its coaching search, and that could give Fisher the upper hand.

Fisher was fired from Texas A&M in 2023 and became the recipient of the largest buyout in college football history, $77.6 million. So Fisher could take a cut-rate salary to lessen the stress on the program and offer an immediate arrival.

Hey, he’s already rich…so it won’t really cost nothing, will it?

Never mind Fisher couldn’t accomplish anything with what was assuredly some of the highest paid rosters out there with a stacked blue chip class of players (who ultimately never panned out)…but he’s affordable!

There’s a reason Florida State hasn’t been relevant since the 63-3 drubbing by Georgia, and it’s not all because Georgia killed their will.

Good luck with that, Seminoles. When you have Publix tastes on an Aldi budget, sometimes you have to look for a steal.

Bring back Jameis while you’re at it.

Reminder: It Could Always Be Much, Much Worse

Jebus, just click on this and read through the replies.Esepcially ones like this.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team’s fanbase yearning so deeply for us to come in and whip their own team’s ass.

Gotta admit, I feel for the Arkansas team players, it’s gotta be something knowing that literally everyone there is rooting against you…and you’re at home.

ROI Don’t Know

This is an interesting graphic.

Color me surprised that Auburn and South Carolina are spending more than Georgia and have nothing at all to show for it, except a new coach and one who could be on his way out.

Ditto for Nebraska, Michigan, and USC. What’s lost here is the individual payouts, where I’d imagine Kirby takes a more balanced approach to spread the wealth while a team like Michigan invested heavily in a QB that has people wondering why they did that.

And then there’s Oregon, Texas and tOSU. Top of the list yet no titles for two of them and Ohio State seemingly lucked into theirs and still can’t buy a decent kicker.

Indiana is lower than eleven teams that has a combined single national title, and one (LSU) that hasn’t even made the expanded CFP. Tennessee has made it once, getting hammered by the Suckeyes 42-9 and didn’t make it in last year at all.

And while Dabo preaches that he doesn’t like transfers, he is investing a lot of money into something…but what it is is beyond me. From another vantage point, consider this:

Which team is most surprising to you, and why?

We’re Not Supporting Your Color Scheme Gimmick, or Your Team

Man, the Pit Boss got out of Fayetteville for good reason. After the Arkansas program encouraged their fans to stripe the stadium, this is the response they’re getting from the fanbase in return:

No, that’s not something I made up…it’s real, and makes me wonder how much traction it’ll gain. I already anticipated a Georgia home game with how we travel, but if folks don’t show…good Lord the optics.

If they’re going with a unique uniform combo for the game, I hope they allow their players to wear their brown pants.

Joey d’Eau Douce Is Playing Tricks Again

Kiffin was one of the first ones last year to have fun with the mandated SEC injury reports, when he initially listed nearly 30 Ole Miss players as “doubtful”. To no one’s surprise at all, he got called out on it and all the doubtful players miraculously played.

Well, it’s 2026, and looks like you teach an old bitch new tricks, can’t you?

Your star QB is doubtful? And White Weeks has been at press conferences this week and looked happy and healthy as a clam.

C’mon, Lane. Ain’t nobody buying this anymore.