You’d think dispatching two Top 25 teams would have given Ole Miss some credit, but per Vegas and the betters, suddenly, Florida is favored against Ole Miss this weekend.

Why? Well, there’s several factors at play, and I’d argue a lot of it has to do with a short body of work, but since people like playing with data, here’s the breakdown:

1. Ole Miss versus the Run – Jaden Baugh is one of the leading rushers in the SEC, while Ole Miss is worst in the SEC versus the run at 159 yards per game average, against Florida’s 5th best SEC average of 247.5 yards per game. BUT, Ole Miss has played two teams that are in the top 40 in rushing (LSU with 228 and Louisville with 211) while Florida’s stats were padded by going up against Campbell (no data), Florida Atlantic (second to last in rushing defense in all of NCAA FBS)…but did shred Auburn’s defense, which still sits in the Top 25 in rushing defense among all NCAA teams.

What’s notable is Florida’s pass defense is 78th in the nation, after going up against the 15th (FAU) and 47th (Auburn) ranked units in passing offense. Neither are filled with All-Stars and it’s likely that Florida hasn’t seen an offense like this all season.

2. Recency bias – 2024, Ole Miss comes in as the hot commodity but loses to an unranked Florida team, lead by Billy Napier. I guess someone in Vegas believes Ben Hill has “mystique”.

3. Let Down Factor – again, betting that Florida is a “let down” game for Ole Miss after the LSU game…but are they considering the Auburn game was a big game for Florida? Is Ole Miss a let down game for Sumrall’s group, too? Who knows.

This is a game where people are hedging their bets on stats and assumptions, and I can’t say they’re all totally wrong. The Florida folks haven’t been this high on themselves in a good long while, so Ben Hill Griffin will be hopping and it’s a 3:30 pm kickoff, to boot, so Natty Light, Jorts, and Orange State Optimism will be in high gear.

Some people aren’t buying it…yet…

Jon Sumrall being informed Florida is favored this week at home against Ole Miss:

“Who has us favored against these guys?”

Vegas point spread.

“There’s lot of good drugs out there, huh?”

😂 pic.twitter.com/Kv4axbQVv1

— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) September 21, 2026

I’ll be pulling for Ole Miss, and hoping that Florida’s momentum doesn’t build any higher. Nothing worse than an inspired Florida football fan, let alone an inspired football team.

If Florida wins, I hope it’s by the book and it’s the right way. You know how Ole Miss is when it comes to attorneys.