Category Archives: SEC Net YPP

If the Net YPP Thing Holds True…

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Then it looks like it’s going to come down to a B1G celebration (plus Notre Dumb). Remember the magic number was 2, and there are four teams out there with that stat (it’s the last column, by the way).

If it ends up B1G versus B1G, as much as the national B1G pundits would revel in it, it’s just going to open the floodgates on CFP reform and more play ins. “We need parity” is a thinly veiled call for “we need more money”…but it’ll be tried, nonetheless.

SEC Net YPP – Week 11

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It felt like I started this way too early last year, maybe this is too late. Sue me, Goldilocks.

To help you read this, the first column shows SEC teams and their ranking in the latest CFP poll, and next to is the team’s Strength of Schedule (per FPI). The stronger red color suggests a tougher schedule, green is easier. This number is pulled from all teams across NCAA, so Mississippi, with a SOS of 32, is the lowest in the SEC but has the 32nd hardest strength of schedule among all college football teams. Tell me again the SEC just doesn’t mean more?

Anyway, the rest is fairly self-explanatory. The YPP ranks are color coded where green is better and red is worse, ditto turnover margin. The schools are organized from top to bottom based on the respective Net YPP (pulled from CFBStats).

So what does it all mean? The Senator used to opine that the magic number was 2.0 to be a CFP worthy team, but with the current structure, that simply isn’t the case anymore. For the home team, Georgia sits fairly middle of the pack. For all the offensive success we’ve been seeing lately, the Offensive YPP is 8th and despite our frustrations with the defense, they’re fourth in Defensive YPP. Who knew?

Not surprisingly, teams with softer schedules (relatively) are at the top of the pack, with teams with tougher schedules are at the bottom. Gone are the days of stacked rosters and bullying teams around, and though 2.0 was the magic number, our best in the league is Texas A&M with just 1.6.

Who would’ve know Mississippi has the 5th best DYPP? Not me. We’ve got a good one with Texas coming in that should really challenge us…but with a turnover margin of +8, Texas has had some gifts (as well as some spectacular special teams play. Alabama has been helped by 10 turnovers, and once, again, I have to point out that Auburn sucks, because I thought it was just their turnover margin last year, but looks like with even a +8, they still can’t win.

Congrats to Arkansas for having the best offense and the worst defense on the same team, and that -7 turnover margin has cost them a game or 6.

Nationally?

So how does this stack up nationally? Looking at the top teams, who has a 2+ Net YPP?

  1. Oregon – 3.25
  2. Ohio State – 3.2
  3. Toledo – 2.49
  4. Texas Tech – 2.43
  5. Indiana – 2.4
  6. Notre Dame – 2.34
  7. Florida State – 2.08
  8. USC – 2.07

Maybe the +2 doesn’t have anything to do with anything. FSU has a turnover margin of -2, and USC carries a +3…while USC is ranked 17th in the latest CFP, FSU has bottomed out again after recently losing to Clemson.

By the way, Georgia Tech has a 1.55 NetYPP, carried by their offense which has the second highest OffYPP with 7.37 (but surrenders nearly six yards on every defensive play).

No nooners yet

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The SEC released the first batch of game times for early September and a few other rivalry games (https://www.secsports.com/fbtv#schedule) on Thursday. The one surprise I saw is Alabama will host Wisconsin at 11 a.m. Central as the warm-up for what is likely the last UGA-Tennessee game in Knoxville for a few years regardless of the scheduling format in 2026. The flip side is that LSU gets 2 home games at night right off the bat.

As it relates to Georgia, the first 3 games will all be at 3:30. I’m just glad the Tennessee game won’t be at night in Kneeland. No surprise that the last Cocktail Party in Jacksonville for a couple of years will be in its traditional 3:30 slot. A really big surprise is that Clean Old-Fashioned Hate in Mercedes-Benz will be sandwiched between the hatefests of the Egg Bowl and Texas-Texas A&M at 3:30 on Black Friday rather than in its traditional sleepy noon slot at Richt-Smart Field at Vince Dooley Stadium. No excuse for a full-throated Dawg invasion of downtown Atlanta.

What do you think about the announced game times? Let us know in the comments.

Thursday Data Dive – Opponent DYPP, The Second National Championship Year, 2022

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Last week, I broke down some stats from the 2021 season in an attempt to determine “what happened” in the year of our Lord, 2024. I’m analyzing trends and opponent numbers from 2021-2024, and comparing each year to see if it’s a unit, a coach, or an opponent that is to blame in the differences in performance.

What I gleaned pretty quickly was that many of us aren’t into data tables and charts, so I’ll present today’s set in two parts, the TLDR version, and the Deep Version. Here goes:

The TLDR:

  • 2022 featured the lowest DYPP ranking (69.1) for Georgia’s opponents in the four year stretch of games.
  • 2022 was the third lowest PPG for Georgia in the four year stretch (32.8).a
  • In 2022, the Georgia offense averaged roughly 489 yards per game, which is the second highest in the four year stretch and is also a nearly 60 yards per game increase from 2021.
  • The Georgia defense was still elite, though not as elite as 2021. The unit gave up an average of 12.4 points per game and had only one shutout, compared to three shutouts in 2021.
  • Passing yards per game increased by nearly 60 yards, while rushing yards also increased from 2021 by ten yards per game, so passing yardage is mainly to account for the uptick in offensive production. Given our receivers and the emergence of Brock Bowers as the second coming for Tight Ends, this shouldn’t be surprising. Don’t forget we also had Washington in there, too.
  • Offensive plays per game also increased by nearly 7 plays per game. The offense hit 70 plays three times in 2021, but this statistic nearly doubled with six games featuring 70 or more plays per game.
  • Despite the uptick in offensive production, pass ypp dropped by nearly three yards while the yards per run increased and the 5.6 yards per run was the highest in the four year set of stats. Overall offensive yards per play decreased by .2 yards per play.
  • Turnover margin hit the negative in 2022, and would not be positive again in the four year set. 2021 never saw a game with a negative turnover margin…2022 had only three games with a positive margin, whereas 2021 had six. What’s more worrisome, 2022 had four games with a negative turnover margin.
  • 2022 also started a new trend where Georgia was penalized more than its opponents, at a margin of 49 to 44.

The Deep Version

The bullet points are above, so here’s the data:

As you’re looking at this and thinking about 2024, you’re probably wondering where our Vanderbilt was…truth be known, we had a Vanderbilt in the form of Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt would’ve been tougher in 2024 than its 2021-2023 self. An interesting one to look at in these sets are comparable teams, like Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, and Tech, which all get tougher in 2024.

While this sounds nit-picky, the 2021 team never allowed more than 20 points in the regular season, and the 2022 version allowed two or more points three times. One of those times, against Missouri, was a real head-scratcher although Missouri’s defense was the second toughest unit we faced in 2022.

Pass plays increased in 2022, and for good reason. Did you see all the weapons out there that were available? Every receiver out there is currently on an NFL squad, one of which was in contention of Offensive Rookie of the Year in Ladd McConkey and then there’s the tight ends…Bowers, Washington, and Delp. Lord Jesus, wouldn’t you throw the damn ball if you were Kirby and Monken? Despite the receiving talent, the rush yards per game was close to the 2021 average, and average rush yards per game still increased by nearly ten yards.

When thinking of this in 2024 terms, where blame is applied across the board, it’s easy to see here that, when a defense has to “pick its poison” that it makes it offensive coordinator’s dream come true. With the field loose and open, plus having a sixth offensive lineman in one nearly every available play (see my Auburn 2022 breakdown, which showed multiple 12 personnel units and featured Washington on the field nearly every play), it’s easy to pass more while netting more rushing yards per game. Although the average passing yards per play dropped, I’d love to run some stats on how many times the screen pass or a check down to a running back was utilized in this season, which could result in the lower pass yards per play for Georgia.

Although this is a post on Georgia offense versus Opponent defense, I would like to point out that 2022 was the first year without Lanning, and this is a trend that I think is overlooked in what lead to 2024. While the offense took a step up in elite status in 2022, the defense was still great, but starting to show signs of concern. Georgia still had the defensive line disrupter in 2022, which disappeared in 2023 forward, but the turnover margin has been an area of concern of mine for a while.

When an offense starts to rely on passing more (which would continue from 2022 forward), there’s an increasing likelihood that more bad things will happen…interceptions, drops, or fumbles from receivers being tackled in space. Obviously, that happened in 2022 and we are all painfully aware of what happened with this in 2024. To make it worse, though, the defense seemed to lose some elements of aggression, where it started to look more like the bend but don’t break type of defense rather than the “hunter” mentality that Kirby prides in Athens.

Turnovers can make or break teams (see: Auburn, 2024), and I personally believe this element doesn’t get talked about enough. It’s also easier to point fingers at the offense than the defense when things go wrong, with interceptions, dropped balls, and yarder yards earned, but it can’t be emphasized enough that the unit that has taken a similar turn for the worst in the past four seasons has been on defense, yet Smart and Schumann seem to be immune from the same criticism as their offensive counterparts.

Is that because of history? Are the memories of the 2014 South Carolina goal-line debacle so deeply etched in our memories that we can never forgive a coach…or was it 2012 versus Alabama…or 2023 Alabama…and so on. Much has been said about the comparison of Monken’s units versus Alabama versus Bobo’s, and there’s no need to rehash this here.

And what is Schumann’s grade as a defensive coordinator? People can argue that he hasn’t had a Carter/Davis combo on the front line in a couple of years, but Bobo didn’t have a Bowers/McConkey/Washington in 2024, either…but the blame for that lands on Bobo’s head as the recruiter and orchestrator of the offensive unit…but doesn’t the same apply to Schumann…and Kirby?

Up next…2023…Doubt Creeps In.

SEC Net YPP – The Final Numbers

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When taken in totality, it appears that, yes, 2+ is still a major metric. First, let’s examine the final SEC Net YPP:

And final turnover margin:

Notes:

  • Given that Texas made the deepest run of any SEC team, it appears the 2+ metric still stands if you want to have a shot at the National Championship (regardless of how you earned it).
  • On the flip side, it seems like coaching is a factor. Brian Kelly’s team had three NFL Rookies of the Year candidates, finished above the 2.0 threshold, and didn’t make it last year. This year, it’s Joey Freshwater’s team of mercenaries that didn’t. I’m not crying.
  • Auburn should still be studied, for research’s sake. Turnovers are a bitch.
  • While I know that there are plenty of critics about Kirby Smart and his coordinators, my biggest head-scratcher of the Kirby Smart era has always been turnovers. For the aggression on defense and “havoc”, we seemingly don’t force turnovers. The Carson Beck mystery alongside a defense that would bend but not break didn’t help the ‘Dawgs chances at all this year. I still argue that the 2024 ‘Dawgs overachieved, and Kirby should’ve been considered more as a COTY candidate than people give him credit for.

What about the rest of the teams, you say? Let’s look at the CFP contenders in this metric:

The table reflects in “Rank” where each team stood overall compared to other BCS teams. Here’s turnover margin:

So, the overall national leader in YPP won the Natty, and with Texas achieving the magical 2 rating, it appears that Ohio State vs. Texas was the real National Championship game, prior to the Irish predictably crapping the bed and looking barely competitive in the final game.

Notably, the Irish benefitted from turnover margin, as did Clemson and Indiana, which I would argue is the result of playing lesser competition with a better defense. Same could be said for ASU and PSU, but also interesting that no SEC CFP team was blowing this metric up, either.

Looking at the field of 12, tell me Georgia didn’t overachieve. While I understand that Georgia prides itself on being “elite”, the product on the field this year was anything but. It was good, but not 2021-2022 elite like Kirby recruits to achieve. To win a SECCG and even make it into CFP was quite an accomplishment of mental grit and willpower.

Now if we can get the execution to follow, we’ll be alright.

Final Net YPP – The Picture is Fuzzier, Texas and Tennessee Are Better Poised than Georgia

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So, let’s see how the 2.0+ rule is holding up in the SEC. At season’s end, here’s the final numbers. I included a column for “change since week 4” to see how much the season twisted and turned since I first started pulling this data.

And for final turnover margin.

Notes:

  • Georgia beat three teams that ranked above it in Net YPP, and two losses came to teams who owned turnover margin in the conference for the season. No need to remind anyone of the Ole Miss and Alabama debacles, but turnovers were critical in both losses (4 interceptions, 3 fumbles to two interceptions for OM and AL).
  • I’ll say this again – although there are sexier candidates out there – Lanning, Cigaretti, etc – I still tip my cap to Kirby for what he accomplished. The stats above suggest Georgia shouldn’t have been in the SECCG, let alone winning it.
  • Joey Freshwater, on the other hand, should get the Darwin Award for what he didn’t accomplish in Oxford…losing to #9, 10, and 14 in Net YPP on the list, two of which weren’t turnover margin all stars, either. What a dolt.
  • My second nod, as much as I hate to say it, for COTY would be Billy Napier. Florida improved throughout the year, had some good wins down the stretch, and was a boneheaded overtime away from upsetting Tennessee, to boot. And if Lagway hadn’t got hurt…nah, I’m not buying that. Still, Bayou Billy actually proved his worth. Florida was fueled by turnovers, as noted in their improvement in the margin there.
  • On the flip side, Pittman’s experiment with Petrino seemed to pay off, if they could’ve played defense and not turned the ball over so much.
  • Brent Venables, you need Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma more than you know.
  • I don’t think anyone had a more abysmal year than Kentucky. Yeesh.
  • Once again, Hugh Freeze should be studied, alongside James Franklin, for gross incompetence. While Franklin made the CFP Playoffs, Freeze’s unit was doing enough to be in the top of the SEC…if only they didn’t turn the ball over so often. There’ll always be the Texas A&M game.
  • Explain to me again why Mizzou is such a sexy optic for the CFP Committee? Nothing points to this, including strength of schedule.
  • I’ve recently heard that upwards of 30 Alabama players are seeking the portal. To finish top 3 in Net YPP and top 2 in turnover margin, end up with three losses to unranked teams, and miss the playoffs, DeBoer might be joining them.
  • If 2.0 was the old standard bearer in the playoffs, it’ll be interesting to see what happens with the three SEC teams. Texas and Tennessee, by the 2.0 rule, would have a better chance than Georgia. One thing that I would argue, though, in the current identity-less era of college football, is that other teams are more prone to mood swings in games, great in one, horrible in the other. Georgia isn’t immune, but they’ve remained the picture of consistency (consistently frustrating) all season long…and have a Championship ring to show for it. Does having a more solid team chemistry equal grit and success in tough games? Tennessee and Texas have been prone to really good games and really bad games…Georgia has been prone to really good halves, and really bad halves, but the games all seem to be the same. Will consistency win? Or will the slow starts and sleepwalking through games finally catch up to Georgia?

SEC Net YPP – Week 11

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Been a while since I updated this, and it’s looking more and more like the results of the 2.0 threshold remains to be seen. For all the talk around the CFP rankings, look who sits atop the Net YPP for the SEC after Week 11’s games.

As for turnover margin:

Notes:

  • I’ve said it before, but what has happened with Auburn this year should be studied, not by journalists, but likely a sociologist or Harvard Business Institute. They have the numbers to indicate they should be every bit as good as Tennessee, but, man, turnovers. It’s almost as if Freeze does it on purpose. What’s interesting to note here is that Auburn’s season is in the trash, and it looks awful, but based on metrics, if they can play an error free game, they are going to give Alabama a run for their money. Unfortunately for Auburn, I don’t see that, since Alabama now has the highest turnover margin in the conference.
  • Likewise, I’m not sure anyone is really noting the job Kirby has done this year with this team. They clearly are a mental case, yet have beaten three of the teams above them in NetYPP, all the while turning the ball over at an alarming clip and not generating any turnovers themselves. The numbers and the results suggest this is a “transition year”, but if they keep playing like they did against Tennessee and Texas, the sky’s the limit. Looking at the potential CFP field, the worst thing that could happen to Georgia is to have to match up with Ole Miss or Alabama again, best case is they get a string of BIG teams with immobile quarterbacks and a reliance on the run game, which plays well into our team’s strengths.
  • If not Kirby, then Beamer could be a candidate for coach of the year, maybe outside of Clark Lea. Vanderbilt is living off of turnover margin and Carolina is getting stronger by the week, with Sellers evolving into a good to great quarterback and their defensive front absolutely killing it in league play. Vanderbilt has lost the luster a little bit and probably outkicked their coverage with an undisciplined and unfocused Alabama team, so my nod here goes to Beamer.
  • LSU has taken the most notable fall in both categories, wouldn’t be surprised if they decide Kelly isn’t the answer. News flash: he isn’t.
  • TAMU has lost footing in the turnover margin, which isn’t good for the Aggies. With an impending date against Texas upcoming, the defensive ship needs to be righted if they’re looking for an upset against the Longhorns. Texas’s defense is actually their stronger link, which is a bit of a surprise since they looked like they had no secondary during spring scrimmages last year. Ewers and the Sarkisian machine kind of underwhelm and don’t impress me much, considering they struggled to move the ball against an Arkansas team whose defense is only better than Mississippi State in DYPP. I’ll call it – the Texas/TAMU game is a meeting of the two most overhyped teams in the SEC. Bleh.
  • TAMU versus Auburn – why do I think this becomes Freeze’s push to save his job? I think Auburn has a legitimate chance to best the Aggies on the Plains this weekend.

SEC Net YPP – Week 9 – Boomer, Sooner

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Here’s an update to the running Net YPP after week 9’s action. That magic number will reveal itself soon enough, but for now, there’s still plenty of football to be played.

Week 9 turnover margin:

Notes:

  • Slowly but surely, Auburn is going to work their way out of that turnover margin ditch they’re in. Imagine if they hadn’t turned the ball over more than a Bingo Parlor on a Friday night, they’d have a winning program.
  • The four teams that are within the magical 2.0 number – Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Alabama – are, at least on paper, in a position to make the CFP based on the talking heads around the media circuits. When you look at where Georgia’s at, it’s amazing we remain the top ranked team in the SEC. Hey, we aren’t out for style points, so if it works, it works.
  • As Oklahoma’s turnover margin goes, so does their chances for winning football. Amazingly, the ineptitude on offense has gassed their defense, whose DFEI gets worse by the week.
  • Texas A&M is the most overachieving team in the country right now if you look at stats like these. Oklahoma was living high off the mediocre YPP and high turnover margin just a few weeks ago…now you see where they are.
  • Look at Florida. No wonder the jorts-wearers are optimistic this week. Stuff like this is where hope is instilled. The football field is where it gets crushed. I’m certain Kirby’s on the mother, and hates losing to Florida probably more than he enjoys winning…let’s stay focused and put Florida where they rightly belong.

Net YPP Week 8 – There’s Something Magical in Alabama

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Well, there were some statement games on Saturday, whether they were the big ones from Knoxville or Austin or some more interesting ones that happened in Columbia or Norman…or, oddly enough, Gainesville.

Net YPP, Week 8:

Turnover margin:

Notes:

  • Hugh Freeze might be the most underappreciated coach in America. How he can manage to have a team that is at the top of the Net YPP list among Alabama, Missouri, and Georgia, while only having two wins on the year is nothing short of amazing. Hats off to you, Dear John.
  • Alabama has been decreasing in YPP for a minute since the Georgia game. Amazingly, they won the turnover battle in Knoxville but their OYPP and DYPP have been reversing trend lately, which isn’t good. Milroe is showing his true colors as a QB, and teams have since learned how to take his legs out of the equation. Maybe Georgia showed everyone, including themselves, the secret sauce in the second half of the Alabama contest, and the gig is up. Whatever is happening in Alabama between the Tide and the Tigers, I’m happy to have a front seat to it and watch with glee. The Iron Bowl is looking to be Auburn’s only chance at a Bowl, and Kalen made the crucial mistake of saying Tennessee was a bigger rivalry than Auburn this past week. That’ll work out well, won’t it?
  • Speaking of wheels coming off the wagon, Oklahoma is in a tailspin of Texas-sized proportions. I’m thinking Venables wished they’d joining the BIG or CUSA at this point. Despite South Carolina’s not-so-great offense, the DYPP for Oklahoma increased slightly, but when this team isn’t getting turnovers, they’re downright terrible. They fired their Offensive Coordinator, though having zero healthy receivers and a starting quarterback who was benched and has now had to burn a redshirt to come in to salvage what’s left of this season will make for some good watching the rest of the way. Not the football kind, but the personal injury kind because I’m betting he won’t be happy with the results of burning the redshirt as well as the rest of the season and how it affects his QB NIL valuation. Who is “him”, exactly? Take your pick.
  • This pains me to say, but Billy has overperformed in Gainesville this year. Florida is trending at the right time, though BVG having his worst game of his short starting career didn’t help (2 picks). DJ Lagway completed only 7 passes…for 259 yards and a pick. He also rushed for 46 yards. Something tells me Florida will be pulling out all the stops for the WLOCP, and we know how Georgia does against mobile quarterbacks not named Manning as of late. Suddenly, the Party has gotten way more interesting than we imagined at season’s start.
  • Regarding what’s the “magic number” for Net YPP this year? I still can’t tell you. Check out the Top 15 right now:

If there’s one thing I can say about the expansion era, it’s that it is lending itself to the cries for a relegation and promotion model where competition is stouter at higher levels than lower. When I peruse the top 15 here, what I see is some teams that have great state, bolstered by an incredibly light schedule. Two service schools are in the Top 15 here, with Navy drawing Notre Dame this weekend so it’ll be interesting to see that unfold.

Beyond that, Indiana (109th Strength of Schedule per ESPN’s Power Index), Clemson (59th), Ole Miss (38th, but already lost twice), Penn State (70th) , Pittsburgh (#103), and San Jose State (#125)? Not the most impressive resume of schedules out there while other teams are slogging it out against each other. Georgia (#1 SOS) has already faced two of these teams and convincingly beat both, yet is 39th on this list in terms of Net YPP. Tennessee, at the bottom of the Top 15, has the 28th SOS. Navy and Army have played the #132 and 133rd SOS, respectively.

Honestly, in making these lists each week, it still shocks me to think that I’m informing measures on updates and there are teams still playing out of conference cupcakes or already having a second bye week in the midst of a relatively light schedule. The computers and perspectives of media, for some odd reason, still heavily favors Ohio State and Alabama, both of whom look like they could make it in to the playoff conversation easily with two losses. On ESPN’s FPI, they have Oregon at 8th and Georgia at 4th, still behind two loss Alabama and the Texas team that Georgia just roped, branded, and slaughtered on Saturday night. Ole Miss, surprisingly, is one behind Georgia with Tennessee a not far behind, and LSU is dead even with Clemson.

That’s a lot of words and numbers to essentially say this: it’s not your standard College Football season anymore. Georgia seems to have taken one of the worst scheduling beatings of all the college football world, outside of say, Florida and Oklahoma, while others are getting to coast through the year. Ohio State has two ranked opponents ahead – Penn State and Indiana – Oregon has one in Illinois, while Texas has Vandy and TAMU left to compete with. Sadly, this will roll on repeat next year and hopefully some balance will be achieved past the 2025 season…or maybe this is exactly what they wanted it to be – guaranteed entry for tOSU and Oregon, a Texas team in the CFP, and a southeastern team or two in there, as well, to ensure the market value and ratings necessary to captivate a national audience and justify the realignment and CFP expansion in its first year.

SEC Net YPP – Week 7 – Wacky Cackalacky

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Some movement occurred over the weekend, and it’s feeling like Week 8 will begin to shed some light on the metric that will help to project your CFP contenders and pretenders. Let’s get to the stats.

Turnover margin:

Notes:

  • Vanderbilt, you’re breaking the mold. A top 5 win, 4-2 record with an inexplicable (in retrospect) loss against Georgia State, they are currently atop the SEC conference standings alongside TAMU. Turnover margin is a difference maker…by the way, Coach Boom was spotted at the Vanderbilt game. Agent Boom, what are you doing? Bring it back to Athens, please.
  • Likewise, considering Georgia has played the #3 team and #5 team on the Net YPP rankings, it’s kind of sort of miraculous that a team that is middle of the pack in this metric and as low in turnover margin has a 5-1 record. Imagine, if you will, if Georgia put it all together for one game, or consecutive games. At this point, I think Kirby’s primary objective is to survive, not style points at metrics.
  • South Carolina, if you didn’t turn the ball over, what could you be? The Vanderbilt of 2024? Ole Miss shellacked the Gamecocks in Columbia, and it’s one of the few games where I feel like the metric played out on both ends to point to the better team. Untimely turnovers and solid offense are costing Beamer some much-needed victories.
  • Speaking of, Ole Miss, with multiple real injuries and fake injuries, leading metrics in both categories, and has two losses. Just a reminder Dawg fans…we could be doing worse. We might be when Ole Miss comes to town.
  • The gap between Florida and Tennessee isn’t as big as one would’ve thought based on pre-season conversations. Tennessee was supposed to be the SEC darlings, and Florida the team that would have a mid-season resignation and fly in Kiffin to save the day. Peep the metrics, Handbags, the grass isn’t necessarily greener in Oxford, as the Laner should be undefeated…but he’s not. And that’s not scheme or ball knowledge, that’s on roster management, which is one of Florida’s problems of practice. If you don’t keep Billy, you need to look elsewhere.
  • It’s not hard to look at this and see why Texas is undefeated and number one. Margin of win and Net YPP both point to the Longhorns being a considerable favorite to make the CFP, but as I referenced yesterday, they’ve only played two of the lowest teams in YPP, so “tested” isn’t a term I’d apply to the Longhorns. Their defense looks other-worldly, but just a reminder – in Week 4, Tennessee owned the best Defensive YPP in the SEC, and that’s prior to playing the #7, #8, and #14 OYPP teams in the SEC. And they lost to one of them that is currently #11 in Net YPP. Ole Miss was #1 in OYPP in Week 4, and has dropped since playing the #6, #7, and #12 teams in DYPP. And they lost the lower of the two of those teams (Kentucky #7, LSU, #12).