SEC Net YPP – Week 11

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It felt like I started this way too early last year, maybe this is too late. Sue me, Goldilocks.

To help you read this, the first column shows SEC teams and their ranking in the latest CFP poll, and next to is the team’s Strength of Schedule (per FPI). The stronger red color suggests a tougher schedule, green is easier. This number is pulled from all teams across NCAA, so Mississippi, with a SOS of 32, is the lowest in the SEC but has the 32nd hardest strength of schedule among all college football teams. Tell me again the SEC just doesn’t mean more?

Anyway, the rest is fairly self-explanatory. The YPP ranks are color coded where green is better and red is worse, ditto turnover margin. The schools are organized from top to bottom based on the respective Net YPP (pulled from CFBStats).

So what does it all mean? The Senator used to opine that the magic number was 2.0 to be a CFP worthy team, but with the current structure, that simply isn’t the case anymore. For the home team, Georgia sits fairly middle of the pack. For all the offensive success we’ve been seeing lately, the Offensive YPP is 8th and despite our frustrations with the defense, they’re fourth in Defensive YPP. Who knew?

Not surprisingly, teams with softer schedules (relatively) are at the top of the pack, with teams with tougher schedules are at the bottom. Gone are the days of stacked rosters and bullying teams around, and though 2.0 was the magic number, our best in the league is Texas A&M with just 1.6.

Who would’ve know Mississippi has the 5th best DYPP? Not me. We’ve got a good one with Texas coming in that should really challenge us…but with a turnover margin of +8, Texas has had some gifts (as well as some spectacular special teams play. Alabama has been helped by 10 turnovers, and once, again, I have to point out that Auburn sucks, because I thought it was just their turnover margin last year, but looks like with even a +8, they still can’t win.

Congrats to Arkansas for having the best offense and the worst defense on the same team, and that -7 turnover margin has cost them a game or 6.

Nationally?

So how does this stack up nationally? Looking at the top teams, who has a 2+ Net YPP?

  1. Oregon – 3.25
  2. Ohio State – 3.2
  3. Toledo – 2.49
  4. Texas Tech – 2.43
  5. Indiana – 2.4
  6. Notre Dame – 2.34
  7. Florida State – 2.08
  8. USC – 2.07

Maybe the +2 doesn’t have anything to do with anything. FSU has a turnover margin of -2, and USC carries a +3…while USC is ranked 17th in the latest CFP, FSU has bottomed out again after recently losing to Clemson.

By the way, Georgia Tech has a 1.55 NetYPP, carried by their offense which has the second highest OffYPP with 7.37 (but surrenders nearly six yards on every defensive play).

18 thoughts on “SEC Net YPP – Week 11”

  1. We’re -2 in turnover margin going up against a team that’s +8 in turnover margin. What could go wrong?

  2. Be interesting to see this chart with the cupcakes removed. Indiana likes to run up the score

  3. The YPP data suggests that the Dawgs are who we thought they were…a good team, but not a great team. Was the Miss State game fools gold? They did rank 15th conference vs the run heading into last Saturday. My guess is that we will see another close 4 quarter game on Saturday. As with every Saturday this Fall, the difference will be our D-line. Can our D-line effect and pressure Arch? If so, we could be in for a treat.

    Thanks for posting the YPP info! Would love to see the return on a weekly basis.

  5. Looks like Kirby has really maximized the results from this team. It’s a flawed team, but coaches have done a good job of keeping it together. Let’s hope it continues.

    • You don’t have to be great. You just have to score more points than the other team.

      We weren’t a great football team in 1980, but we won the fucking games. Often in crazy ways and from behind.

      • True. I was thinking the other day that this team reminds me of the 1978 Wonder Dawgs. The 1980 team had some dude a tailback that seemed to tilt the field in our favor. What was his name again?

        • It’ll come to me.

          Woerner saved us vs. Clemson.

          Scott saved us vs. florida.

          A big hit saved us vs. south carolina.

          The freshman was impactful, no doubt, but other guys made plays.

          Like Hoage vs ND.

          Not a ton of nfl talent out there, but they were a team.

          How many starters on that 1980 team were on pro rosters in 1988?

          I’m guessing 1. You know, whatshisname.

  6. Like I used to tell The Senator when he would post about this topic the only stat that really matters is the final score. Just ask Indiana or Pedo State. That includes things like the current ‘middle 8’ stat. If you win the middle 8, but lose the game does it matter that you won it?

    • The middle 8 is a pretty darn good leading indicator of who is going to win the game. If Kirby thinks it’s a strong indicator tied to win probability, it’s probably something to pay attention to.

      • When I have heard CKS talk in a post-game presser and he mentions the middle 8 it isn’t the only thing he mentions. It’s included with other things like clock control, explosive plays, defense (less so this year, but still), resilience and other things. It’s always more than one thing. I am happy when we win the middle 8, but if we win it and lose it doesn’t mean diddly-squat to me. I have never heard any coach say “Well, we lost the game, but we won the middle 8 so there’s that!”

  7. I would be interested to know what Texas’ net YPP was before about mid-October.

    As for the eight nationally that have a +2 net YPP, notice that none are in the SEC and schedules really do come into play. Indiana and Ohio State have really had the benefit of some luck in who they have played to this point in the season. I admit that I am a little shocked at Oregon.

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