Last week, I broke down some stats from the 2021 season in an attempt to determine “what happened” in the year of our Lord, 2024. I’m analyzing trends and opponent numbers from 2021-2024, and comparing each year to see if it’s a unit, a coach, or an opponent that is to blame in the differences in performance.

What I gleaned pretty quickly was that many of us aren’t into data tables and charts, so I’ll present today’s set in two parts, the TLDR version, and the Deep Version. Here goes:

The TLDR:

• 2022 featured the lowest DYPP ranking (69.1) for Georgia’s opponents in the four year stretch of games.
• 2022 was the third lowest PPG for Georgia in the four year stretch (32.8).a
• In 2022, the Georgia offense averaged roughly 489 yards per game, which is the second highest in the four year stretch and is also a nearly 60 yards per game increase from 2021.
• The Georgia defense was still elite, though not as elite as 2021. The unit gave up an average of 12.4 points per game and had only one shutout, compared to three shutouts in 2021.
• Passing yards per game increased by nearly 60 yards, while rushing yards also increased from 2021 by ten yards per game, so passing yardage is mainly to account for the uptick in offensive production. Given our receivers and the emergence of Brock Bowers as the second coming for Tight Ends, this shouldn’t be surprising. Don’t forget we also had Washington in there, too.
• Offensive plays per game also increased by nearly 7 plays per game. The offense hit 70 plays three times in 2021, but this statistic nearly doubled with six games featuring 70 or more plays per game.
• Despite the uptick in offensive production, pass ypp dropped by nearly three yards while the yards per run increased and the 5.6 yards per run was the highest in the four year set of stats. Overall offensive yards per play decreased by .2 yards per play.
• Turnover margin hit the negative in 2022, and would not be positive again in the four year set. 2021 never saw a game with a negative turnover margin…2022 had only three games with a positive margin, whereas 2021 had six. What’s more worrisome, 2022 had four games with a negative turnover margin.
• 2022 also started a new trend where Georgia was penalized more than its opponents, at a margin of 49 to 44.

The Deep Version

The bullet points are above, so here’s the data:

As you’re looking at this and thinking about 2024, you’re probably wondering where our Vanderbilt was…truth be known, we had a Vanderbilt in the form of Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt would’ve been tougher in 2024 than its 2021-2023 self. An interesting one to look at in these sets are comparable teams, like Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, and Tech, which all get tougher in 2024.

While this sounds nit-picky, the 2021 team never allowed more than 20 points in the regular season, and the 2022 version allowed two or more points three times. One of those times, against Missouri, was a real head-scratcher although Missouri’s defense was the second toughest unit we faced in 2022.

Pass plays increased in 2022, and for good reason. Did you see all the weapons out there that were available? Every receiver out there is currently on an NFL squad, one of which was in contention of Offensive Rookie of the Year in Ladd McConkey and then there’s the tight ends…Bowers, Washington, and Delp. Lord Jesus, wouldn’t you throw the damn ball if you were Kirby and Monken? Despite the receiving talent, the rush yards per game was close to the 2021 average, and average rush yards per game still increased by nearly ten yards.

When thinking of this in 2024 terms, where blame is applied across the board, it’s easy to see here that, when a defense has to “pick its poison” that it makes it offensive coordinator’s dream come true. With the field loose and open, plus having a sixth offensive lineman in one nearly every available play (see my Auburn 2022 breakdown, which showed multiple 12 personnel units and featured Washington on the field nearly every play), it’s easy to pass more while netting more rushing yards per game. Although the average passing yards per play dropped, I’d love to run some stats on how many times the screen pass or a check down to a running back was utilized in this season, which could result in the lower pass yards per play for Georgia.

Although this is a post on Georgia offense versus Opponent defense, I would like to point out that 2022 was the first year without Lanning, and this is a trend that I think is overlooked in what lead to 2024. While the offense took a step up in elite status in 2022, the defense was still great, but starting to show signs of concern. Georgia still had the defensive line disrupter in 2022, which disappeared in 2023 forward, but the turnover margin has been an area of concern of mine for a while.

When an offense starts to rely on passing more (which would continue from 2022 forward), there’s an increasing likelihood that more bad things will happen…interceptions, drops, or fumbles from receivers being tackled in space. Obviously, that happened in 2022 and we are all painfully aware of what happened with this in 2024. To make it worse, though, the defense seemed to lose some elements of aggression, where it started to look more like the bend but don’t break type of defense rather than the “hunter” mentality that Kirby prides in Athens.

Turnovers can make or break teams (see: Auburn, 2024), and I personally believe this element doesn’t get talked about enough. It’s also easier to point fingers at the offense than the defense when things go wrong, with interceptions, dropped balls, and yarder yards earned, but it can’t be emphasized enough that the unit that has taken a similar turn for the worst in the past four seasons has been on defense, yet Smart and Schumann seem to be immune from the same criticism as their offensive counterparts.

Is that because of history? Are the memories of the 2014 South Carolina goal-line debacle so deeply etched in our memories that we can never forgive a coach…or was it 2012 versus Alabama…or 2023 Alabama…and so on. Much has been said about the comparison of Monken’s units versus Alabama versus Bobo’s, and there’s no need to rehash this here.

And what is Schumann’s grade as a defensive coordinator? People can argue that he hasn’t had a Carter/Davis combo on the front line in a couple of years, but Bobo didn’t have a Bowers/McConkey/Washington in 2024, either…but the blame for that lands on Bobo’s head as the recruiter and orchestrator of the offensive unit…but doesn’t the same apply to Schumann…and Kirby?

Up next…2023…Doubt Creeps In.