Spring Kirby is much more fun to listen to than Fall Kirby. I know some of you really don’t like Pate (I have my problems with him, too), but this is a pretty good discussion across a number of topics.
Many of you have probably watched or listened to this, but if you haven’t, it’s worth your time especially if you’re on a boring work phone call.
Refugees, discuss.
If the Big 10 gets their way on this, the regular season is officially dead.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/47584209/college-football-playoff-expansion-hearing
SEC wants 16, and the B1G wants 24. I’m assuming the desire for 24 is purely a play for Fox by the Yankee conference to force the division of TV rights.
If Sankey doesn’t hold the line on this, he’s pretty much useless. I’ve become resigned to the fact they are going to expand. 16 seems right to give the top 4 a play-in game. The question is how far will they go with games on campus.
Redd Foxx has a word for Tony Petitti.
What do you think? Let us know in the comments.
Thursday afternoon the Granddaddy of Them All, the Rose Bowl, will host #1 Indiana and #8 Alabama with the winner heading to Mercedes Benz Stadium and the Peach Bowl. This game is a matchup of one of the worst college football programs against one of the bluest of blue bloods. Yes, I understand this game isn’t going to be won on tradition, but this is the biggest game in the history of Indiana football. Let’s get to the first look.
Series record: First meeting
Gambling degenerate facts: Caesar’s has Indiana as a 7 point favorite with a -250 on the moneyline and a point total of 48.0.
How should a refugee watch this game: A refugee can watch this game in one of 3 ways. First, you can watch this game with conference loyalty at top of mind given the amount of SEC ragebait over the last month. Second, you can watch this game in the hope of watching Bammer Nation meltdown for a loss that Bammers would believe beneath them. Third, you can watch with the hope that the 2 teams beat each other to a pulp. A combination of all 3 is probably where I am.
Interesting statistic: 109.9 and 221.1 (rushing yards per game)
Alabama’s challenges running the ball have been well documented throughout the season. You are who you are at this point on the calendar. Can the Tide win a game without really any meaningful running threat? Indiana has gaudy rushing stats piled up against the likes of Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, Indiana State, Illinois, UCLA, Maryland and Purdue. In their other 5 games, the Hoosiers rushed for over 4 yards per attempt once (Michigan State).
Early outlook: Is the moment too big for the Hoosiers? Can the Tide put together a game like the game in Athens earlier this season? Whoever answers that question favorably probably gets on a plane back east with a date in Atlanta against Oregon or Texas Tech. The team that doesn’t will be in for a will long winter of discontent.
Ty Simpson was every bit of the Heisman contender for the first half of the season as the eventual winner, Fernando Mendoza. If Indiana can’t get consistent pressure on Simpson, the Alabama receiving corps could make life miserable. On the other hand, if Alabama doesn’t control field position better and make Indiana one-dimensional, Finebaum on Friday could be must see TV.
I’m really on the fence about this one, but Alabama does have the athletes on both sides of the ball that could make life extremely difficult for Indiana and Indiana along get the luck they had in Indianapolis. I think Indiana gets it done but closer than the experts think.
Final Score: Indiana 23, Alabama 20
What do you think? Let us know in the comments.
Thursday at noon the New Year’s Day triple header starts where the season will end in Miami as the #4 Texas Tech Red Raiders (new money) and the #5 Oregon Ducks (old money) meet in Miami for the privilege of moving on to Atlanta and the Peach Bowl. The last time we saw them Oregon took care of business in Eugene against James Madison while Texas Tech blew out BYU for a second time to win the Big 12. Let’s get to the first look.
Series record: Oregon holds a 3-0 edge in the series.
Last meeting: In 2023, the Ducks went into Lubbock and won 38-30. Oregon scores 20 in the 4th quarter to come back to win. Bo Pix (I can’t resist) has a huge game passing for 369 yards plus pitching in another 46 rushing to power the comeback, and the Oregon defense gets a late pick 6 plus another interception on the game’s final play to ice the win. The real difference in the outcome is -4 … the Red Raiders’ turnover margin.
Gambling degenerate facts: Caesar’s has Oregon as a 2.5 point favorite with a -132 on the moneyline and a point total of 52.5.
How should a refugee watch this game: This game has all of the trappings of the “underdog,” non-blue blood program in Texas Tech against Nike U and its flash on South Beach. A refugee should be watching this game with the mindset of pulling for the team which would be a preferred opponent in a championship game balanced with who could bloody either Alabama or Indiana’s nose in Atlanta next week.
Interesting statistic: 2.89 and 2.44 (net yards per play)
Both teams have been effective this year playing complementary football as the stats above show. Both also have played Charmin soft schedules. Oregon got smacked by Indiana in Eugene while Tech lost at Arizona State without their starting QB. This game is likely won by the team who can play the best complementary game on Thursday.
Early outlook: Both teams are stout against the run and are opportunistic (Texas Tech is +17 for the year in turnover margin!). If Oregon protects the ball, I think the Ducks have too many weapons for the Red Raiders to match up with consistently. If Oregon can’t sustain drives, I wouldn’t be surprised for Texas Tech to take the game into the 4th quarter and pull out the win.
Oregon has a bad taste in their mouth after last year’s debacle in the Rose Bowl where Ohio State embarrassed them as the #1 overall seed. Lanning is getting to be known as one of the best coaches in the sport and would be on any Dawg fan’s list of replacements if Kirby ever decides he has had enough.
Old money gets it done in Miami.
Final Score: Oregon 31, Texas Tech 27
What do you think? Let us know in the comments.
Wednesday night the CFP kicks into high gear as the #2 Ohio State Buckeyes and the #10 Miami Hurricanes meet in Dallas for the privilege of moving on to Glendale and the Fiesta Bowl. Neither team won their respective conference. Miami didn’t even play for their championship because of some crazy, convoluted tiebreaker. Ohio State let Indiana off the hook in Indianapolis because they screwed up a QB sneak, missed a chip shot FG, and didn’t feed the beast Jeremiah Smith. Let’s get to the first look.
Series record: The overall series is tied at 2 with Miami holding a 1 game streak in the series
Last meeting: In 2011, the Canes beat the Buckeyes 24-6 in Miami. The Miami defense holds Ohio State to 209 yards while gaining 363 yards including 240 on the ground. 2 1st half interceptions prevent the game from getting out of hand early. Here is anOSU’s passing line:
Gambling degenerate facts: Caesar’s has Ohio State as a 9.5 point favorite with a -360 on the money line and a point total of 42.0.
How should a refugee watch this game: Of course, refugees should be interested in this game. If the Dawgs win on Thursday night, we’ll face the winner in Arizona for a chance to play for a national championship. Ohio State’s offense has struggled to score points against the 2 teams who could match them with a total of 24 points against Texas and Indiana. Is the Ohio State everyone thought would run roughshod through college football going to show up as it did last year? Can Carson Beck play a clean game for 60 minutes against a defense similar to the ones he saw in practice in Athens?
Interesting statistic: 2.87 and 2.83 (rushing yards allowed per attempt)
Both teams have NFL quality front 7s and are extremely difficult to run on. The team that finds some semblance of a running game probably wins. The Buckeyes gave up 166 yards to Texas, 100 to Michigan, and 118 to Indiana. Miami gave up 93 to Notre Dame and 89 to Texas A&M while Louisville gained 119 in their win over the Canes. The troubling stat here for Miami was the 194 given up to Virginia Tech.
Early outlook: The previous section shows my key to the game. Miami’s path to victory means taking some pressure off Carson Beck to win the game with his arm and to use the running game to stay out of 3rd and medium to long. On defense, it means getting Sayin into uncomfortable situations that force him to make plays. Ohio State has shown they can win when they lose the rushing battle (see the Texas game), but they also lost the ground game to Indiana. On defense, the best way to force Beck into mistakes is keep the Canes behind the chains.
I like the team that has the best player on the field, and that’s Ohio State with Smith. Will the Just for Men spokescoach force feed him the ball now that it’s win or go home time? I would, but the Ohio State defense is the reason I like them.
Final Score: Ohio State 24, Miami 17
What do you think? Let us know in the comments.
Another rematch happens tonight when 8th seeded Oklahoma hosts 9th seeded Alabama in Norman to kickoff the College Football Playoff with the winner heading to the Rose Bowl to take on top seed Indiana while the loser heads home from the holidays with a coach headed to the hot seat. These 2 teams had high hopes entering the season. Bama with 2 dangerous wide receivers in Germie Barnard and Ryan Williams and OU with preseason Heisman candidate transfer QB John Mateer were predicted to have high flying offenses. At season’s end, both offenses had not met expectations.
Series record: Oklahoma leads the series 5-2-1 and holds a 2 game winning streak in the series.
Last meeting: In November, the Boomers steal a win in Tuscaloosa taking advantage of turnovers and special teams blunders. Oklahoma was anemic on offense only generating 212 yards while Alabama passed for over 300 yards but couldn’t run the ball with any consistency against the Sooner defense. A pick 6 and a fumbled punt inside your own 20 gets you beat.
Gambling degenerate facts: Caesar’s installed Alabama as a 1 point favorite with a practically even money line and a point total of 40.5.
How should a refugee watch this game: Theis matchup has all of the potential to be the game of the weekend, but GTP refugees should be watching this game with 2 things in mind. First, can Alabama overcome their availability report and get healthy? If so, I can’t imagine that Indiana is looking forward to seeing an Alabama team finding its footing. The Bama team that beat Georgia earlier this season is dangerous, but the question is whether that team even exists anymore. Second, I want to get a good look at what we’re likely to see in Athens next year when the Sooners come to town.
Interesting statistic: 3.56 and 3.69 (rushing yards per attempt)
Both teams struggle to run the ball with any consistency. The first game bore this out as well with the Tide rushing for 80 and the Sooners for 74. Bear Bryant and Bud Wilkinson are spinning in their graves over how not physical both teams are.
Early outlook: First team to 100 yards rushing wins the game. If that team also wins the turnover battle, they might win easily. Can Ty Simpson play as he did in Athens in September? Can Mateer get back to form where he was in the Heisman conversation prior to his hand injury?
I like the home team to get it done and send the Tide back to Alabama and home for the holidays.
Final Score: Oklahoma 20, Alabama 17
What do you think? Let us know in the comments.
Saturday afternoon (night for us) the 5th seeded Oregon Ducks host the 12th seeded Fun Belt champion James Madison Dukes for the right to face Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium. None of the powers that be ever planned for 2 Group of 5 champions to make the field, but then again, no one thought the ACC would be so pathetic where the winner of the World’s Smallest Outdoor Cocktail Party would ever be left out. This match-up really does look like a September rent-a-win game rather than a game with national championship implications.
Series record: First meeting
Last meeting: N/A
Gambling degenerate facts: Oregon currently is a 21.5 favorite with a money line of -2000 and a point total of 49.5.
How should a refugee watch this game: Refugees should watch this game with an eye toward a potential national championship showdown with the Ducks. Are the Ducks good, or is their record a product of a schedule that included an overrated at the time the game was played Penn State?
I’ll be hate watching the game because after a trip to Disneyland a number of years ago, I figured out Oregon fans are the west coast version of the Handbags but without the nattys in their history.
Interesting statistic: +2.92 (Oregon’s net yards per play)
Once again, I don’t know if this is a product of the Oregon schedule, but a greater than a net 2 yards per play tells me they are good on both sides of the ball and they create and prevent explosive plays. I expect we’ll see their explosiveness on Saturday.
Early outlook: I really don’t see a path to an upset in this game without significant help by Oregon through turnovers and special teams miscues.
JMU is likely to be happy to get the playoff check for the Sun Belt and prepare for the return of SBB to his natural environs. Oregon is going to look to make a statement that they plan to use an advantageous path to the best of their ability.
Ducks win and win big, but I doubt their players will be eating chicken wings on the sideline in the 4th quarter.
Final Score: Oregon 48, James Madison 13
What do you think? Let us know in the comments.
Saturday night in the Horseshoe in Columbus is the most anticipated of the 4 1st round CFP games. Some of the most obnoxious, toxic fans in the sport will be represented as Tennessee and Ohio State square off on a cold Saturday night. Ohio State’s offseason national champions disappointed by losing 2 games and not appearing in the B1G championship game, and Tennessee lost to a very mediocre Arkansas team in Fayetteville and a fired up Georgia team in Athens. This game has all of the makings of a great 4 quarter game. Let’s get to the preview.
Series Record: Tennessee leads 1-0.
Last Meeting: Tennessee beat Ohio State 20-14 in the 1996 Citrus Bowl. Ohio State with Heisman winner Eddie George only generates 89 yards of rushing against John Chavis’s Tennessee defense, who has a +3 turnover margin. Peyton Manning has a pedestrian game while Jay Graham runs for 154 yards and is named the game’s most outstanding player. As a result, Tennessee finishes the season in the top 3 in both polls.
Gambling Degenerate Facts: The Harrah’s sports book at the Venetian has Ohio State as a 7.5 favorite with a money line of -278 and a point total of 47.
How Should a Refugee Watch This Game: I’m guessing there are some readers here that are going to pull for Tennessee to win in Columbus whether that’s because of SEC vs. B1G, Southerners vs. Yankees, Bobby Hill over Just for Men, etc. I’m guessing the only Dawg fans who want Ohio State to win are those in the Chattanooga area around Ringgold (Moe Pritchett, looking at you, sir). A lot of us including myself feel like Hope does here:
Interesting Statistic: Tennessee 29.52% Ohio State – 33.73% defensive 3rd down conversion
Given the stoutness of both defenses throughout the season (both only allowed 30+ points once this season to Georgia and Oregon, respectively), I would assume there will be a lot of 3rd downs. The team that gets into 3rd and manageable more often and converts will be the likely winner.
Early Outlook
Yes, it’s going to be cold. In this game, I don’t believe this is going to be a big difference maker as Ohio State has not been built to play outdoor games in December and Tennessee players deal with offseason cold during the winter. I may be wrong about this, but this just doesn’t seem to be the huge difference maker in this game.
Without turnovers or special teams play, I don’t see this game getting out of the 20s. At quarterback, I’m not a big fan of Will Howard. He just doesn’t appear to be the type of player who can put the Buckeyes on his shoulders and will them to victory as other anOSU QBs have done recently. Nico I is going to be playing in the biggest game of his young career, but once again, he hasn’t been the world beater everyone thought he was going to be stepping in for Joe Milton.
At the line of scrimmage, I really like the defensive line of the Vols against the offensive line of the Bucks. If they play well, there are going to be havoc plays available to them. Will they create something for Tennessee?
I’ve gone with favorites up until now. Give me the Vols in a straight-up upset at +222 (I haven’t bet on them). If this happens, will the Just for Men spokescoach be employed in Columbus on Sunday morning?
I still am rooting for this outcome on Saturday night.
What do you think? Let us know in the comments below.
The middle game of CFP triple-header Saturday features the teams in the “We Lost to Georgia” Bowl, the Greater Anderson Cow College Tiggers and the Texass Hamburgers at DKR Memorial Stadium. This game has all the look of a Texas easy win based on the teams’ performance throughout the year … home field advantage, offensive line play, and overall defense. On the other hand, this game isn’t Dabo’s first rodeo in the CFP and Clemson’s defensive line play. Let’s get to the preview.
Series Record: First meeting (I was surprised that these 2 schools had not even played in a bowl game)
Gambling Degenerate Facts: The Harrah’s sports book at the Venetian has Texas as a 11.5 point favorite with a money line of -455 and a point total of 51.5.
How Should a Refugee Watch This Game: We beat both of these teams soundly in the regular season, one on a “neutral” site and one in their backyard. We turned around and beat the Hamburgers again in Atlanta in an SEC championship game for the ages. Texas is one of the 2 teams in this thing that is built in a way to compete with us (IMHO, Ohio State is the other). To me, the Greater Anderson Cow College has the defensive front to do to Texas what we did to them twice … get pressure on Ewers and control the Texas running game. I’ll never consider Texas as part of the SEC, so I’ll be fine if the Tiggers go ahead and take them out of this thing. I would enjoy the Message Board Geniuses’ X feed if that happened.
Interesting Statistic: 0.86/2.25 (net yards per play for Clemson and Texas, respectively)
The difference in this statistic is stark. After drilling into the detail, the Longhorns’ defense is the real difference between these 2 teams. That doesn’t mean I’m saying Clemson’s defense is the weak link, but the Longhorn defense should be the best total unit on the field on Saturday and have been the most consistent unit throughout the season.
Early Outlook
Texas should win this game and should cover the spread if the game goes as the teams on paper would indicate. The problem for Texas is that the game isn’t played on paper. Similar to the 2 games against Georgia, the media and the talking heads are lining up with Texas against “little ole Clemson.” Turnovers (game 1) and drive-killing mistakes (game 2) changed the games. If those equalizers show up again on Saturday, this game will be a 4 quarter fist fight.
Clemson’s path to victory requires them to be able to run the ball effectively, stay in front of (or with) the chains and stay out of 3rd and long … the thing they did not do consistently in Mercedes-Benz Stadium against Georgia. The Tigers really need to turn this game into a low-scoring street brawl to have a chance to steal it in the 4th quarter. I’m not convinced about Sark’s in-game coaching prowess, and a close game in the 4th would only magnify those concerns.
I think the team with the most paths to victory is the likely winner. Therefore, the burnt orange of Texas makes a return trip to Atlanta to take on Arizona State in the Peach Bowl.
What do you think? Let us know in the comments below.
The noon game on first round Saturday pits the SMU Mustangs of the ACC (really?) against the Penn State Nittany Lions of the B1G. SMU makes the World’s Smallest Outdoor Cocktail in the their first year in the conference, falls way behind Clemson, mounts a furious comeback to tie the game, and then loses in heart-breaking fashion … sounds like the Georgia/Alabama game this year. The Nittany Lions once again fall in a meaningful game again as they lose to Oregon in Indianapolis. Let’s get to the preview.
Series Record: Penn State leads the series 1-0-1.
Last Meeting: Penn State knocked off SMU 26-21 in Happy Valley on the way to an undefeated regular season and a New Year’s Day date with Alabama in the Sugar Bowl where the famous Alabama goal line stand won the Crimson Tide a split national championship with USC.
Gambling Degenerate Facts: The Harrah’s sports book at the Venetian has Penn State as an 8.5 point favorite with a money line of -320 and a point total of 54.
How Should a Refugee Watch This Game: As the other 1st round game on the Dawgs’ side of the bracket, I would assume most in this merry band of refugees will be watching to get a real advance scouting look at both teams. Neither team really scares me (assuming Gunner Stockton plays well in the quarterfinal game) because Penn State doesn’t appear to be explosive enough to make me worry they can exploit potential weaknesses in our defense (Oregon is not that good on defense) and SMU lost in Charlotte to a flawed Clemson team that we absolutely manhandled (they are this year’s TCU if you get my drift). As a result, I would love to see SMU take out the team on our side of the bracket that probably has the best chance to knock us out.
Interesting Statistic: 2.74/3.24 (Defensive rushing yards per attempt for SMU and Penn State, respectively)
Both teams have been stout against the run so far this season. Given the weather forecast in State College for this weekend, the team that wins likely is the team that can defend the run most effectively (or the inverse, run the ball most effectively). Kevin Jennings as a true dual threat could be a wild card to the benefit of the Mustangs.
Early Outlook
Can SMU go into the frozen tundra of Happy Valley and walk out with a win? I believe so. I think SMU should go into Beaver Stadium confident they can win. The question is whether they can get the game into a place where Penn State has to put up points and whether they will be able to deal with a Penn State crowd making their first appearance in the CFP.
Penn State should win this game … these are the types of games that James Franklin has won in the past. His teams have been reliable to win games they are supposed to win. The flip side is Franklin’s record in big games is spotty at best. SMU’s defense has been susceptible to the pass this season. Will the weather allow Drew Allar and company to exploit the weakness? If so, Penn State is likely to win and may win comfortably. If not, I think this game is likely to be a slog.
If SMU allows Penn State to get in front as they did with Clemson, they probably can’t mount a furious comeback against the PSU defense in the weather conditions. I like Penn State to get the win on Saturday afternoon … if they don’t, James Franklin is going to have a long winter of discontent in State College.
What do you think? Let us know in the comments below.