Tale of the stats – Georgia 48, Tennessee Tech 3

Last week’s post seemed to generate some discussion, so let’s do it again. Was the home opener the biggest overdose on empty calories of the season last year? Probably, but that’s what I’ve come to expect from Kirby and the Dawgs in these FCS games. The cupcake doesn’t end up tasting great, and you spend the next week complaining about how bad the baker was.

Here’s a link to my preview post:

Team Statistics:

Snoozefest in the Sanford heat

Gamblers should stay away from games like this. Unlike some other coaches in the SEC (cough, cough … Lane Kiffin … cough, cough), Kirby sees these games as what they are a glorified scrimmage where you get your starters game reps, get them out of the game as early as possible, and play the 4th quarter with a 10-minute clock. He understands these FCS coaches really don’t want these games but have to have them to pay the freight for their programs to remain afloat, so he obliges.

The key statistic of the game was the time of possession. TTU slowed the game down to a snail’s pace, and Kirby was more than happy to go along especially once the game was truly out of hand. Early in the 2nd quarter, TTU kept the ball for 11 plays and gained only 34 yards but took just shy of half of the 2nd quarter game clock. During that possession, TTU converted 2 3rd downs of 6 or more with runs (not of the scramble kind). That’s not what we’ve come to expect from Georgia defensively. I’ll also highlight the 9 penalties for 85 yards. Once again, that statistic is symptomatic of sloppy, unfocused play.

Individual Statistics:

This game was one where I expected to see a lot of Gunner Stockton and either Ryan Puglisi or Jaden Rashada. Instead, Carson Beck played 2 successful possessions in the 3rd quarter before heading to the sideline. Games like this are when you try to see what you have in case of injury to your starter and get your 2nd team QB into the game with the 1st team offense. I really thought this was a missed opportunity by the staff to get Gunner meaningful 1st half game reps instead of using this game to pad Beck’s individual statistics for a potential Heisman campaign.

I’m probably being overly critical with what I just wrote, but looking back on the entire season, this failure to get Gunner meaningful game reps throughout the season eventually caught up to us (and no, I’m not blaming the ND loss on Stockton).

Something to Consider for 2025:

I pulled the individual rushing statistics overall for a look at 2025 on offense. In this game, 4 of the players listed above are returning in 2025. Of course, everyone believes Nate Frazier is going to be the next great back in the RBU tradition, and that pressure is something the young man appears to embrace. Cash Jones is going to be expected to contribute as more than a 3rd down option. Hopefully, the Robinson duo can find some of the pre-injury promise that each had shown on the field in their freshman years. As I mentioned last week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some Dillon Bell working with the running backs this spring to provide some additional spark.

I didn’t get the complete tackle chart on my phone screen capture, but the reason I took such a large chunk of data here is that there are a lot of guys on this chart who are returning this year and a few that entered the transfer portal in the offseason. In particular, I wanted to highlight Christen Miller. When healthy, he has reminded me of Devonte Wyatt with his quickness, physicality, and pass rush skill. If this defensive line is going to improve its stock in 2025, Miller is going to be a central piece of that puzzle. Joenel Aguero is the other player from this group that needs to take a big step up in 2025 after fighting an injury-hampered 2024 which forced Kirby and T-Rob to move Malaki Starks down from his free safety eraser role to playing the slot/nickel/star a lot last year. No matter how good Dan Jackson and K.J. Bolden were last year, the defense missed a beat when Starks was not at the back of the defense calling signals and being a sideline to sideline free safety. Back to Aguero, it will be interesting this spring to see if he remains at the star role as a thumper or to move back in the defense to Jackson’s strong safety position.

Evans had a big punt return on his opportunity to set up a quick score. I honestly thought we would get more of that last year, but for whatever reason, he wasn’t the dynamic playmaker we all thought he would be as a kick returner last year. Who is going to step into the punt return role in 2025? My money is on Sacovie White, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Demello Jones get a hard look this spring.

Summary

A win is a win. To use a different food & drink reference, let’s use the classic “Great taste, less filling” from Miller Lite.

I think we can safely say that the cupcake didn’t necessarily taste to expectations and it was less filling (and less satisfying).

What do you think? Let us know in the comments below.

The Dawgs are coming! – UMass preview

This senior class are winners. They have 2 rings, an SEC championship, 3 New Year’s 6 bowl wins and a 50-4 record to date. I know we’ll have a great reception for these guys this afternoon between the hedges. After that, we do have a game to play. Let’s get to the preview.

When Georgia Has the Ball

After last week’s outstanding game, I would love to see Carson Beck come out and have a great but short stint with about 150 yards and a couple of TDs before coming out for Gunner Stockton and others. I expect we’re going to see Bobo and Searels they to get the run game started with Cash Jones and Nate Frazier with the other young backs and offensive line meshing. Assuming no turnovers, I expect the Georgia offense to produce explosive plays, points and yards.

Tomorrow should be about the young guys. I’ll be looking to see if some of the young receivers (Tuggle and White) along with the freshman tight ends get some quality game reps.

When UMass Has the Ball

As I mentioned in my first look post, the Minutemen’s offense has not been potent this season. The Georgia 1st team defense should be able to put the clamps on the UMass offense. I don’t believe there’s an Andy Isabella type of player on this team that can cause some problems especially for younger DBs. What I really want to see is for our defense to start getting ready for the QB run heavy offense I expect to see next weekend against the Jacketasses

Once again, I really am hoping we get a chance to see a lot of Ellis Robinson in the secondary with KJ Bolden and some of the other young DBs.

What Will Happen

The outcome of the game isn’t in doubt. I expect to see the starters in the game through the 1st half, and Beck leaves the game before that. Let’s build on the momentum created from the Tennessee game, get out with no injuries, and focus on destroying the trade school on Friday night.

I think those likely mean the Dawgs don’t cover the 42 1/2.

Final Score: Georgia 48, UMass 10

The weekend that was at Message Board Geniuses – week 3

How much of our playbook did you give them?

After last night’s escape from Lexington, I needed 12 hours or so to think about how the same team that beat the hell out of Clemson could be taken to the brink by a team that lost by 25 at home to South Carolina. We’ll get to our geniuses in a bit, but for now, let’s enjoy a little from the message board universe.

I had to start today with the Hogtown dumpster fire mixed with Busch Light, Axe body spray and eau de paper mill.

https://twitter.com/boardgeniuses/status/1835326918352384034?s=46

Jort Nation can’t decide whether to fire Sun Belt Billy now or force him to earn his buyout by taking the brunt of this season on his record. The Handbags made the AgCult’s offense look functional. They also learned that DJ Lagway may become a great player at the college level but he isn’t one right now. The mostly empty 2nd half Swamp made these 90s eyes cry tears of joy. I hope SBB makes it through the season because it will make the Florida recruiting class so bad the talent gap between us will look like the Gulf of Mexico.

Good times indeed.

We’ll move a little west toward the Redneck Riviera for our next stop in the message board universe.

Losing to Georgia Tech sucked but at least there was plenty of Guinness, Harp, and Irish whiskey for sorrow drowning. Being bullied by Boston College was surprising and shocking. Getting punked at home by Memphis has to be rock bottom. At least that’s what Nole fans have to be thinking. When your unconquered fans are now saying we don’t want any part of a big boy conference and longing for the days of Willie Taggart, it ain’t good in Tallahassee. How low can it go now especially given FSU is tied to Mike Norvell.

Let’s take our little trip now to the surface of the sun aka Columbia, South Carolina for a double feature.

Gamecock fans are delusional, but usually, their delusion is gone by this time of the year. The idiocy of the typical Poultry partisan has never been in doubt. The combination of the 2 in the TwiX above is incredible – the delusion that South Carolina could play for the SEC championship combined with the stupidity of not knowing the divisions are gone now is the USCjr stereotype.

OTOH, the Leprechaun continues to lose Corn Dog Nation. Beating South Carolina by 1 is not the way to prove to the proud Cajuns that you have things under control. Garrett Nussmeier’s awful decision that should have been a game-clinching pick 6 was bailed out by a call that would have never been made anywhere else on the field involving any other player on the field. Does anyone really think Brian Kelly was ever going to be a good fit on the bayou? Add Tiger fans to the list of those who believe they can convince Saban to leave his cushy ESPN job combined with his ability to play golf whenever and wherever he wants and the money Bama is paying him to be around the program.

Let’s move on to the backwoods of the SEC, StarkVegas.

I normally never think about Mississippi State, but this nugget from last night’s beatdown the Bizarro Dogs took at the hands of Toledo made me laugh. When you think MACtion talent is an upgrade, you know you aren’t built to win in the SEC. Those Disney checks still cash very well.

Our trip around the world of CFB now takes us to the capital of the Empire State of the South.

https://247sports.com/college/georgia-state/board/59462/contents/congratulations-236307855/?page=1

I have saved this space for relishing in the pain of others, but I had to give a shout out to Dell McGee for his Panthers’ win over previously undefeated Vanderbilt last night in Atlanta. McGee seems to be doing things right in downtown Atlanta by taking what he learned from Kirby and applying what works for his current situation. Good for him and I hope he can make life miserable for Brent Key.

Let’s end our weekend travels on the Kentucky bluegrass.

Now it comes to our geniuses who know more football than all of us but just haven’t gotten the chance to show it. I was disappointed in how we played Saturday night (I had a growing Munson throughout the day yesterday that only happens for late games I don’t attend) especially across both lines of scrimmage. Yes, I understand we had a lot of guys out on the defensive line, but we had plenty of chances to get backs on the ground for TFLs or short gains and didn’t do it. The offensive line did not play well at all for most of the game. We got outplayed physically on both lines for most of the night. Said differently, Mike Stoops wanted to play the game in a phone booth to shorten the game, and Kirby was happy to oblige.

For our geniuses, “Fire Mike Bobo” is the hammer for every nail that is a problem at UGA. I don’t know if the game plan was bad because the execution was generally putrid last night. The guy from southwest Georgia that takes a potshot at Beck and Jake Fromm can stick it for all I care … they’re both DGDs.

Those are my thoughts on the weekend that was. Finally, this bye week comes at a good time where Kirby can chew some back sides and get this team focused on the task at hand … Beat Bama.

TCOB part 1 – Tennessee Tech preview

I wasn’t sure whether to post the video above or come up with something snarky about Tennessee Tech. I decided on BTO because I do believe that this should be the theme of the season. It goes right along with “Assume nothing” as a battle cry for this season. Battle cry makes me think of this and the fact that I look forward to spending about 3 hours in Sanford Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

Let’s get to the preview.

When Georgia Has the Ball

Will he or won’t he play on Saturday? Kirby has had enough of Chump’s continued questions on the topic. I thought Trevor Etienne should have played this past Saturday based on what’s in the public domain about the situation (and, surprisingly, Mike Griffith agrees). If he doesn’t play this Saturday, I have to assume that there was more to the spring story than was let on or he has a nagging injury where Kirby wants to hold him out. I expect the offensive game plan to be vanilla ice cream … tasty but unexciting. Establish the running game, sprinkle in a controlled passing game, and let superior athletes make plays in space. If the Dawgs don’t break 500 yards of offense and 40 points on the scoreboard, I’ll be disappointed in the day. We saw a little of Gunner Stockton with the 1st team offense in the Orange Bowl, and I hope we get a generous dose of that on Saturday to see Stockton as a future leader of the Georgia offense.

When TTU Has the Ball

We are going to see a lot of base defense on Saturday against a team that is likely to run a lot of spread concepts. Don’t be surprised if the Dawgs only get 1 or 2 sacks against what will likely be an overmatched TTU offensive line with a QB who is told to get rid of the ball as quickly as possible. The only exotic stuff we’re going to do will be a few of the things we showed against Clemson. If this game goes as expected, we’ll see a lot of bodies on the defensive side of the ball rotate in often. One of the biggest that I want to see is Jamaal Jarrett and whether he is fully ready to join the defensive line rotation. He is a large human being, and I doubt TTU has anyone who can block him if he’s interested. If the Golden Eagles score more points against us than Clemson, I’ll be disappointed in the defensive effort.

What Will Happen

On College Football 25, this game would likely require a 3rd digit on the scoreboard, but real 18-23 year old men behave differently than their video game equivalents. I expect us to be sloppy (even Kirby didn’t seem happy about Monday’s practice) on both sides of the ball, but eventually, the pure athleticism takes over. I expect the game to be out of hand by the middle of the 2nd quarter and for the coaches to agree to a running clock in the 4th quarter. As I mentioned with my first look, no significant injuries as we enter SEC play next Saturday night in Lexington.

Final Score: Georgia 52, TTU 3

First look at Tennessee Tech

There’s not much to say about the game on Saturday against FCS opponent Tennessee Tech. The outcome is not in doubt as the Dawgs will win easily. Of course, we thought that in 2016 when Nicholls State came calling after the Dawgs won the opener in the Dome against an ACC opponent. The big objectives for Saturday is get guys well, have no significant injuries and get younger players experience for later in the season.

Series Record: Georgia leads 2-0. Who knew we played Tennessee Tech in 1943 and won 67-0?

Last Meeting: The Dawgs under the leadership of the Ginger Ninja Joe Cox won 38-0 in 2009 running out to a 31-0 halftime lead where even fair catch specialist Logan Gray got snaps at quarterback. Willie “Two Thumbs” Martinez’s last Georgia defense held the Golden Eagles to about 110 yards of total offense and only 1 play in Georgia territory.

Gambling Degenerate Facts: As of earlier today, even Vegas didn’t have any lines on the game. ESPN FPI gives the Dawgs greater than 99% chance of winning. Fech geeks respond:

Interesting Statistic: Third Down Defense Conversion Rate 53%

TTU allowed MTSU to convert 3rd downs at an alarming rate for a defensive coordinator’s ongoing employment. Frankly, that statistic is the reason the Blue Raiders escaped Murfreesboro with a victory over the Eagles. I don’t anticipate the Dawgs will need many 3rd down conversions while the 1st team offense is on the field, but this is something to watch especially as the 2nd and 3rd teams take the field.

Early Outlook

If we play well on offense, we will be able to name the score on Saturday. I expect to see Carson Beck put up some numbers in the first quarter plus and quickly give way to Gunner Stockton to get live snaps with the remainder of the first team offense. If Ryan Puglisi is available, we should see him at some point in the second half.

In a game like this, I don’t expect to see anything from the defense but basic vanilla schemes that have been on film for years now. There will be nothing that has a different look from what we have shown on film from the Clemson game. I expect that we’re going to see a lot of the defensive talent from the #1 rated recruiting class.

On both sides of the ball, I expect that the game plans will be as bland as instant grits.

Did I say anything about no injuries?