Who knows what’s going to happen tomorrow in Gainesville (correction: Jacksonville)…new coaching staff, a bye week, and our conference game tendencies to get off to slow starts. What remains to be seen though, is whether that signature Georgia grit will hold up in the second half of the game. Take a look at these quarter by quarter expected point differential:
Check out the first quarter for Georgia…a -21 point differential. If there was ever a more telling stat that defines the season thus far, it’s that one…but notice what happens next…the 2nd is +11 and the 3rd is a whopping +51. Looks like the fourth is a bit of a push at -.21, but this shows a team who comes on around the 2nd quarter and owns the third.
Now, comp that with the Handbags…-4 in the first (so not hot starters themselves)…but they are getting absolutely crushed in the 4th at a -54 rate.
Me thinks if we have a slow start, we can make up for it…and if the Gators are that rancid in the fourth quarter, we can expect to see some death marches late in the game.
Here’s hoping that Florida’s numbers hold up…and get worse.
I think Parker Fleming has way too much time on his hands. Oh, I almost forgot, FTMF.
Ok. One of you math majors tell me what kind of 3rd quarter swing that translates to?
If I’m understanding this at the base level correctly, it’s the point differential between what we score versus what they score. A positive means we score more, and negative means they score more. At 52, I’d imagine that equates to a lot of our scoring and our tendency to find a solve and shut down the other team in the second half. Imagine what the number would be if we could’ve kept Ole Miss off the field in the third. We’ve allowed 24 points in the third all season long against us scoring 69 points. How does 45 turn into 51? No idea…these advanced stats folks are confusing some times.
Hopefully this is the game where the Dawgs rediscover their killer instincts and crush the Gators from the opening drive.
Jacksonville?
Dammit!
#FTMF!!