Georgia and Texas square off later today for the 2nd time in Atlanta with the SEC championship on the line. Just like clockwork the entire college football apparatus has lined up saying Texas will win. They all talk about what Texas learned from the first game, and no one is giving Georgia a chance. I even heard Josh Pate talk about what happens in the playoff if Georgia gets blown out like the result is set in stone and it’s just a matter of how bad it’s going to be. I don’t know if Georgia is going to win, but other than the LSU game in 2019, I’ve never gone into a game in this building thinking the Dawgs didn’t have chance. This Texas team ain’t that LSU team. Let’s get to the preview.

When Georgia Has the Ball

Can Carson Beck continue to take care of the ball as he has the last few weeks and didn’t do in Austin? If so, Georgia has more than a puncher’s chance to win today. Due to the offensive woes at the time, Georgia took advantage of field position created by the defense to score 23 first half points. We can’t rely on those same opportunities to win today. Similar to the Tennessee game, I expect we are going to see Mike Bobo take an early shot to let the Longhorns’ defense know we are going to throw it over their head if they decide to play 8 or 9 in the box.

I can’t write this without talking about how important the offensive line play is this week. This game likely goes only as well as that group allows. Just enough of a running game to force the Longhorns to respect play action. Keep Beck upright in the pocket.

When Texas Has the Ball

Will Sark put Arch Manning out there more than in game 1? Can Quinn Ewers be more effective than he was in Austin? Can Texas run the ball and protect the quarterbacks much better than they did in front of friendly crowd in Austin? If the answers to all of these are yes, we probably don’t win.

The defense has played 3 great games this year: Clemson, Texas and Tennessee. The common denominator in all of those games really was the ability to force quarterbacks to stay in the pocket and make throws with a limited ability to run the ball. Against Clemson, Georgia stopped the run consistently and got consistent pressure but only 2 sacks. 7 sacks in Austin were the difference in the game as Ewers and Manning looked like they were playing big boy football for the first time. 5 sacks on Nico I in Athens against Tennessee. Many of those caused by the fact there was no one to throw to downfield. On the other hand, in our 2 losses, we got 1 sack total.

I think that tells you our winning formula today depends on creating havoc. Can we do it?

What Will Happen

Honestly, I’m at a loss for knowing what is going to happen. LSU 2019 is the only time we have lost in Mercedes-Benz without Alabama being on the other sideline. This Georgia team is better than that 2019 team, and Texas is nowhere near the juggernaut that was that LSU team.

This outcome of this game comes down to line play and how Carson Beck handles the moment. At this point in the season, I have to say Texas has the edge along the lines of scrimmage, but they aren’t going to be able to win a 17-7 type of game as they did last week in College Station. Carson Beck at his best is better than the 2 QBs combined for Texas.

Other than that LSU game, Kirby seems to be at his best when no one gives his team a chance. I believe Kirby knows the value of getting that bye for his team, and he is going to coach that way.

The Dawgs force one field goal in the red zone to make the difference.

Final Score: Georgia 31, Texas 27