Category Archives: SEC Net YPP

Net YPP Week 8 – There’s Something Magical in Alabama

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Well, there were some statement games on Saturday, whether they were the big ones from Knoxville or Austin or some more interesting ones that happened in Columbia or Norman…or, oddly enough, Gainesville.

Net YPP, Week 8:

Turnover margin:

Notes:

  • Hugh Freeze might be the most underappreciated coach in America. How he can manage to have a team that is at the top of the Net YPP list among Alabama, Missouri, and Georgia, while only having two wins on the year is nothing short of amazing. Hats off to you, Dear John.
  • Alabama has been decreasing in YPP for a minute since the Georgia game. Amazingly, they won the turnover battle in Knoxville but their OYPP and DYPP have been reversing trend lately, which isn’t good. Milroe is showing his true colors as a QB, and teams have since learned how to take his legs out of the equation. Maybe Georgia showed everyone, including themselves, the secret sauce in the second half of the Alabama contest, and the gig is up. Whatever is happening in Alabama between the Tide and the Tigers, I’m happy to have a front seat to it and watch with glee. The Iron Bowl is looking to be Auburn’s only chance at a Bowl, and Kalen made the crucial mistake of saying Tennessee was a bigger rivalry than Auburn this past week. That’ll work out well, won’t it?
  • Speaking of wheels coming off the wagon, Oklahoma is in a tailspin of Texas-sized proportions. I’m thinking Venables wished they’d joining the BIG or CUSA at this point. Despite South Carolina’s not-so-great offense, the DYPP for Oklahoma increased slightly, but when this team isn’t getting turnovers, they’re downright terrible. They fired their Offensive Coordinator, though having zero healthy receivers and a starting quarterback who was benched and has now had to burn a redshirt to come in to salvage what’s left of this season will make for some good watching the rest of the way. Not the football kind, but the personal injury kind because I’m betting he won’t be happy with the results of burning the redshirt as well as the rest of the season and how it affects his QB NIL valuation. Who is “him”, exactly? Take your pick.
  • This pains me to say, but Billy has overperformed in Gainesville this year. Florida is trending at the right time, though BVG having his worst game of his short starting career didn’t help (2 picks). DJ Lagway completed only 7 passes…for 259 yards and a pick. He also rushed for 46 yards. Something tells me Florida will be pulling out all the stops for the WLOCP, and we know how Georgia does against mobile quarterbacks not named Manning as of late. Suddenly, the Party has gotten way more interesting than we imagined at season’s start.
  • Regarding what’s the “magic number” for Net YPP this year? I still can’t tell you. Check out the Top 15 right now:

If there’s one thing I can say about the expansion era, it’s that it is lending itself to the cries for a relegation and promotion model where competition is stouter at higher levels than lower. When I peruse the top 15 here, what I see is some teams that have great state, bolstered by an incredibly light schedule. Two service schools are in the Top 15 here, with Navy drawing Notre Dame this weekend so it’ll be interesting to see that unfold.

Beyond that, Indiana (109th Strength of Schedule per ESPN’s Power Index), Clemson (59th), Ole Miss (38th, but already lost twice), Penn State (70th) , Pittsburgh (#103), and San Jose State (#125)? Not the most impressive resume of schedules out there while other teams are slogging it out against each other. Georgia (#1 SOS) has already faced two of these teams and convincingly beat both, yet is 39th on this list in terms of Net YPP. Tennessee, at the bottom of the Top 15, has the 28th SOS. Navy and Army have played the #132 and 133rd SOS, respectively.

Honestly, in making these lists each week, it still shocks me to think that I’m informing measures on updates and there are teams still playing out of conference cupcakes or already having a second bye week in the midst of a relatively light schedule. The computers and perspectives of media, for some odd reason, still heavily favors Ohio State and Alabama, both of whom look like they could make it in to the playoff conversation easily with two losses. On ESPN’s FPI, they have Oregon at 8th and Georgia at 4th, still behind two loss Alabama and the Texas team that Georgia just roped, branded, and slaughtered on Saturday night. Ole Miss, surprisingly, is one behind Georgia with Tennessee a not far behind, and LSU is dead even with Clemson.

That’s a lot of words and numbers to essentially say this: it’s not your standard College Football season anymore. Georgia seems to have taken one of the worst scheduling beatings of all the college football world, outside of say, Florida and Oklahoma, while others are getting to coast through the year. Ohio State has two ranked opponents ahead – Penn State and Indiana – Oregon has one in Illinois, while Texas has Vandy and TAMU left to compete with. Sadly, this will roll on repeat next year and hopefully some balance will be achieved past the 2025 season…or maybe this is exactly what they wanted it to be – guaranteed entry for tOSU and Oregon, a Texas team in the CFP, and a southeastern team or two in there, as well, to ensure the market value and ratings necessary to captivate a national audience and justify the realignment and CFP expansion in its first year.

SEC Net YPP – Week 7 – Wacky Cackalacky

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Some movement occurred over the weekend, and it’s feeling like Week 8 will begin to shed some light on the metric that will help to project your CFP contenders and pretenders. Let’s get to the stats.

Turnover margin:

Notes:

  • Vanderbilt, you’re breaking the mold. A top 5 win, 4-2 record with an inexplicable (in retrospect) loss against Georgia State, they are currently atop the SEC conference standings alongside TAMU. Turnover margin is a difference maker…by the way, Coach Boom was spotted at the Vanderbilt game. Agent Boom, what are you doing? Bring it back to Athens, please.
  • Likewise, considering Georgia has played the #3 team and #5 team on the Net YPP rankings, it’s kind of sort of miraculous that a team that is middle of the pack in this metric and as low in turnover margin has a 5-1 record. Imagine, if you will, if Georgia put it all together for one game, or consecutive games. At this point, I think Kirby’s primary objective is to survive, not style points at metrics.
  • South Carolina, if you didn’t turn the ball over, what could you be? The Vanderbilt of 2024? Ole Miss shellacked the Gamecocks in Columbia, and it’s one of the few games where I feel like the metric played out on both ends to point to the better team. Untimely turnovers and solid offense are costing Beamer some much-needed victories.
  • Speaking of, Ole Miss, with multiple real injuries and fake injuries, leading metrics in both categories, and has two losses. Just a reminder Dawg fans…we could be doing worse. We might be when Ole Miss comes to town.
  • The gap between Florida and Tennessee isn’t as big as one would’ve thought based on pre-season conversations. Tennessee was supposed to be the SEC darlings, and Florida the team that would have a mid-season resignation and fly in Kiffin to save the day. Peep the metrics, Handbags, the grass isn’t necessarily greener in Oxford, as the Laner should be undefeated…but he’s not. And that’s not scheme or ball knowledge, that’s on roster management, which is one of Florida’s problems of practice. If you don’t keep Billy, you need to look elsewhere.
  • It’s not hard to look at this and see why Texas is undefeated and number one. Margin of win and Net YPP both point to the Longhorns being a considerable favorite to make the CFP, but as I referenced yesterday, they’ve only played two of the lowest teams in YPP, so “tested” isn’t a term I’d apply to the Longhorns. Their defense looks other-worldly, but just a reminder – in Week 4, Tennessee owned the best Defensive YPP in the SEC, and that’s prior to playing the #7, #8, and #14 OYPP teams in the SEC. And they lost to one of them that is currently #11 in Net YPP. Ole Miss was #1 in OYPP in Week 4, and has dropped since playing the #6, #7, and #12 teams in DYPP. And they lost the lower of the two of those teams (Kentucky #7, LSU, #12).