Another win between the hedges … ho hum. The sense of fans here and throughout Dawg Nation is that this team is immensely talented and immensely maddening. I agree with that by the way. Now, we seem to be entering the lion’s den in Austin where Texas is unbeatable. Oh yeah, Texas has lost multiple home games to inferior opponents since the last time Georgia lost a game between the hedges. I’m not saying Georgia is going to win on Saturday night … more on that later, but the amount of negativity around Dawg Nation is more than just Munsoning. Let’s get to the first look.
Series Record: Texas leads 4-1 and has a 1 game winning streak.
Last Meeting: Georgia coming off a close SEC championship loss in 2018 and being left out of the CFP no-shows in New Orleans and loses to Texas 28-21. Turnovers, special teams blunders and bad run fits led to the type of loss Kirby Smart was hired to stamp out in Athens. Kirby learned his lesson which has been applied ever since. If you aren’t planning to play (if healthy), you don’t go on the business trip, and Georgia has been almost automatic in “meaningless” bowl games ever since.
Gambling Degenerate Facts: Texas is a whopping 3.5 point favorite with a -176 moneyline, and the point total sits at 55.5.
Interesting Statistic: 78, 119, 126 – the total offense rankings of Mississippi State (I know, I know), Michigan and Oklahoma(!), respectively
Are these rankings due to the Texas defense or is this symptomatic of a soft as Charmin schedule Texas has played to this point? Yes, we’re only 27th in the nation in total offense right now, but even the most vocal Mike Bobo haters would have to say our offense is the first Texas has faced that has a fully functioning pulse halfway into the regular season. There is no doubt Carson Beck is the best quarterback Texas has faced this season and that this group of pass catchers should provide the most challenge to the Texas secondary. Whether we can take advantage of that is another thing.
Early Outlook
Similar to the Alabama game, I believe the first team to 30 wins. That team is likely the one that controls the game on both lines of scrimmage and avoids the big mistake that puts their team in position to lose the game. For this to be our Dawgs, this defense has to play much better than we’ve seen since the Clemson game. We cannot give up the huge explosive plays that have plagued this defense especially since the Alabama game. Quinn Ewers is a darn good quarterback, but he’s also the first pure pocket passer we’ve seen since Cade Klubnik. Ewers also has much better targets than Klubnik, so there’s that.
I like this Georgia team to rise to the occasion. One thing we learned in Tuscaloosa is that they aren’t going to quit even when things aren’t going their way (cough, cough … Florida State … cough, cough). This team is going to face adversity in Austin at some point. While I am as Disney as Dawgs come, I’m concerned that we won’t get to 30 first and will, therefore, be on the outside looking in.
What’s your thought on Saturday at this point? I’ll be back later this week with a full scope preview. Let us know in the comments below.
I may hate Texas more than Florida and Tennessee combined. Their fans like jort wearing hillbillies on meth, but with more money.
The Yoko Ono of college conferences
I think the Dawgs will give them all they want and then some. Texas has been eating the rat poison all year, and they think they’re invincible. The media is in love with them and don’t think I’ve heard one talking head give us much of a chance. Beware of a bunch of pissed off, overlooked Dawgs this Saturday night.
HBTFD
I believe this is the type of game Coach Dooley feasted on in the past.
I think this game truly tells us who this team is this year. I can handle getting beat if we play a complete game, look like the Dawgs of old, and just get outplayed. But if we lose because we have another first half like Bama or we can’t run block or we get burned in the secondary like against Miss St, then we’re not a playoff-worthy team.
When looking at passing charts, Ewers doesn’t go downfield too much and there is some talk that Texas doesn’t have the deep threats like others, though neither did Mississippi State, right? For all the talk about their offense, they don’t necessarily do things “clean” when they’ve faced stouter defenses, but in those cases the offenses couldn’t stay on the field and Texas wore them down. While our offense has warts, I think they can extend drives and force Texas to outscore rather than allowing them to keep their defense fresh. I’m not even making sense at this point…play clean, no stupid turnovers, and keep the receivers in front of you, and I think we can win.
We know the formula: Stop their running game, score early, make them one dimensional on offense so we can pressure a pocket passer, don’t give up explosive plays. This is the Clemson game but against far better talent. I expect it to be close and with a so few RBs I don’t know we can close them out in the 4thQ playing manball but expect we’ll try. What time is it in Texas?!
Stop all the big plays by TX and UGA can have zero turn overs. Do those two things and we win.
WHB209
I saw that this is the first time since we opened vs. Clem’s Son in Charlotte that we are the underdogs…
Pretty fucking amazing. I thought the line opened at 2.5, so if its moved a point that’s probably a whole lot of oil money on the home team.
One thing Texas has struggled with is winning these big games consistently. We have definitely been in these positions more often, and when its not Alabama, we’re pretty much unblemished since 2019. I don’t know how much you can hold 2020 UF loss against Kirby given the start and then Stet goes out and we have… who was that kid who was too scared to play qb?
I like our chances playing a traditional offense, like we practice against every day. Much like I thought that trip to ND would fall on the edge guys, and they did not disappoint, this week is going to be about 10 and 11 coming off the edge and making Ewers uncomfortable. If they can do that, I think we’ll be ok.
That said, I don’t know that we want to see the back up…. So hit him, but maybe don’t hurt him.
Agreed. Keep Ewers in the game. We don’t want to see Manning. He’s a mobile QB and the backup, both of which are our kryptonites.
I’ve had a PTSD flashback or two about this. Honestly think Sark is better to go with Arch if for anything else to just have the Milroe effect on our defense. I won’t be surprised if we don’t see some QB rotation this weekend, just to keep us off balance.
Beck is one INT short of his total from last year. Texas is second in the SEC at getting INTs.
Nothing scientific here…but for the Bama game I was on edge and uncomfortable…for the texas game I have a calm since of confidence in Kirby’s Dawgs for this one
Take the over. I think the first to 40 wins.
It’s still 8:50 in Texas.
Classic trap game for the Horns: They’ll get caught looking forward to next week when they have to travel to the construction site to face Vandy. Get ready to fold up that protein-stained “Texas Is BACK” t-shirt and put it back in the drawer with the rest of your “special” socks and dog-eared Victoria’s Secret catalogues. Dawgs feast on beef this weekend.
I hate to say it, but I expect us to lose by at least 2 scores. Reason is that Bobo’s offense can’t seem to put up 1st half points against any defense with a pulse (7 vs Bama, 3 vs Kentucky, 6 vs Clemson). That won’t cut it against Texas at their house at night. They have a balanced offense and will score early. By the time Bobo finally gets it figured out in the 2nd half, Texas will be likely up by 3 TD’s and looking to burn clock. Just my 2 cents. I feel like our team has shown us already who they are and this game comes too soon for them to be much different.
I was going to say the same thing. Except it will be everyone’s fault but Bobo’s. its not about the stats his offenses put up. It’s about what they do in games exactly like this. They wander through the productivity desert for much of the game and then come on strong late… most often too late. IF we win this game, I will definitely change my tune about CMB. To me, it would be the first time he’s won this game and that would be a great sign.
Of course, we need the D to step up. If Texas scores every time they get the ball, it ain’t Bobo’s fault. If that’s the case… Schumann!!! So help me if we get up and they are struggling and trot Manning out on the field, I’m gonna throw up. DT QBs are Kirby’s kryptonite.
We just beat everyone when we have the better athletes. When it’s even, we seem to lose. Maybe that’s just the Bama effect. Or maybe Bama is the only team we’ve faced outside 2021 OSU that could match up with us talent wise.
Lastly, and to Bobo’s credit, Beck needs to do his part to start the scoring early and avoid the awful decisions and bad deep balls he’s been mixing in this year. We need him to play like $1M!! Arian, two hands!
/End_Ramble
/Execute_CMBacklash
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I was going to the same as the last 2 posters. I see this as a 2 score game.
Offense has to start strong and score early. Defense needs to start strong and not give up big plays. Do both of those and we win.
Unfortunately, I tend to agree with you and D as in Dawg. When Texas wants to burn clock they can simply run for the edges. We rarely stop those plays. I’m not sure what to make of our defense this year. We seemed to start the year well against Clemson. Since then it seems like we get worse every week. I’m going to be surprised if we don’t get a new defensive coordinator once the season is over. I can’t imagine Kirby is okay with our defense this year. I believe Bobo gets to stick around. We’re starting a new quarterback next year while playing the same brutal schedule. My wife and I are going to spend the weekend on Lake Sinclair with friends (all alumni) and watch the game. She is wondering if we can “call in sick.” We don’t anticipate it will be a fun trip like it normally is. I hope we’re wrong.
I think this game has 3 keys:
1) Win the turnover battle
2) Pressure Ewers
3) Win the lines of scrimmage
Even 2 out of 3 leads to a Dawgs victory.
Love it. Just not confident that we can do any of those three things. That’s right…I’m Munsoning.