I’ll start this off with this interesting quote from Alabama Defensive Coordinator Kane Wommack:
And I’ll raise it by showing you what’s going on and what’ll likely happen this weekend:
One thing is certain for Saturday, it’ll be night, and it’ll be wet.
So what does it mean? And how will it effect the gameplan and game play?
Well, for one, let’s start by looking at the two teams and how they rank/fare on both sides of the Ball:
Georgia Pass Defense: 42nd in NCAA, 187 yards per game, 9.72 yards per completion
Alabama Pass Defense: 106th in NCAA, 234 yards per game, 13.3 yards per completion
Georgia Rush Defense: 3rd in NCAA, 57.4 yards per game, 1.91 yards per rush
Alabama Rush Defense: 10th in NCAA, 78.6 yards per game, 2.47 yards per rush
Georgia Pass Offense: 39th in NCAA, 266 yards per game, 12.56 per completion
Alabama Pass Offense: 24th in NCAA, 287 yards per game, 14.81 yards per completion
Georgia Rush Offense: 26th in NCAA, 213 yards per game, 6.49 yards per rush
Alabama Rush Offense: 43rd in NCAA, 186 yards per game, 4.85 yards per rush
Granted, Alabama’s competition has been significantly better than Georgia’s. Wins over Kentucky, Mississippi State, Florida State, East Carolina, and South Carolina gives Alabama a rich portfolio against a host of different offensive looks and defensive sets.
One thing that sets the two teams apart in stats is Alabama’s turnover margin of +7, but they also are second in the NCAA in turnovers gained at 13 to Georgia’s 10 (with a margin of +6).
The big thing that everyone’s talking about is Keelon Russell, and his big play ability. And, of course, after their dismantling of Mississippi State (that also resulted in 4 Bulldog turnovers and Kamario Taylor being knocked out of the game), it seems that each week has a new flavor of the week and Alabama is it.
It’s unfortunate that it’s raining, because it seems that Gunner would be able to have some success through the air against Alabama’s secondary, at least based on the numbers. I’ve wondered here about Kirby’s gameplans the past two games, where it seemed like we were turning it lose late into games and passing more than running. Maybe he was setting Gunner up to be loose and take shots against Alabama, but if the weather makes the game go to the ground and between the tackles, I like our chances even more.
For one, I believe we have enough tight end talent where if the game was shrunk to a short field and lots of 13 personnel sets that would allow for short shots and dinking and dunking down the field. Alabama has also been wretched on the ground in the DeBoer era, where running almost seemed to be an afterthought.
Alabama has Daniel Hill, who has 51 rushes for 247 yards and four touchdowns. That’s under fifty yards per game, though Georgia’s only rusher in the same category is Nate Frazier, who averages 52.8 yards per game and has been held out for two weeks. Something tells me Nate will be back this weekend, out of pure necessity.
Four of Georgia’s leading rushers are averaging over five yards per carry – Frazier at 8.1 ypc, Phillips at 8, Walker at 6.7, and Stockton at 6.1. Bowens is averaging 3.5, though I’d argue that has a lot to do with situational football and using him as the short yardage back. Alabama has three – Brown at 5.0, Crowell at 7.8, and Russell at 5.0
The difference, on one hand, will come down to poise and the quarterback who is more willing to take a hit and get tough yards, and I’ll give Stockton the nod on that one. The offensive line is a “on paper” strength for Georgia, as is the tight ends room, so the theoretical idea here is the weather will benefit the Dawgs.
One other X factor – special teams. I’d imagine punting and place kicking will be in high use on Saturday, and we know Woodring is a ringer, but Alabama also has Conor Talty, who is 8/8 on field goals this year, including 4-4 from 40-49 yards with a long of 45. Woodring is 4-4 with a long of 49. Punt stats are a little hard to find, but Alabama also has one of the best kick returners in the nation in Dijon Lee, who averages 29.2 yards per return. Sacovie White-Helton is doing well as a kick return specialist, and Alabama uses Ryan Coleman-Williams, who also isn’t bad. If Lee can flip the field in a kicking contest, Alabama would get an edge and we could see a game go from a predicted 38-35 slugfest to a 15-12 game reminiscent of the 1996 Texas Tech game in Athens.
One can hope that the weather stays away and gives us a good matchup, but I also kinda wonder if the rain wouldn’t benefit the Dawgs more. If I had to guess which coaching staff has a deeper playbook on the run game, there’s no doubt in my mind that Georgia has the edge in this area.
Run the ball, stop the run, and damn the weather.
Given the murderers row we’ve faced so far, I’m surprised our stats aren’t better all around.
Early half time leads, may have an effect on UGA football’s 3rd quarter slow starts, moving forward, CKS has their attention….GO DAWGS!!
Our first teamers really have only played about 3 games worth. Stockton hasn’t had to finish a game yet. Stats seldom tell the story.
Watching the forecasts on this one from the gulf coast. Too early guesses show the tropical storm lingering offshore long enough it would spare gametime, but conditions could get rough as the night goes on and for a ride home. If the schools asked for an earlier kickoff time for safety, I wonder if the money whores like ESPN would agree or care?
Rain & Bama game….NIGHTMARE!
2015, Athens, Beatdown, Fire Mark Richt.
It doesn’t matter — BAMA BY A MILLION!
Love this outlook! Our D is better, our TEs make a huge difference. I believe the Senator would opine that turnover margin will decide a game like this. I’d agree.
Does this Nick Kelly fella write for The Babylon Bee?