Saturday night, the pressure of the season ratchets up to 11 as the Dawgs travel to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama in a top 10 showdown. Georgia has not been tested to this point rolling through its schedule 5-0 and not being behind for a minute this season. Alabama has had to come off the mat a couple of times in games against Kentucky and Florida State coming back from 1st half deficits. Both teams are extremely talented with future NFL players all over the field. This game appears to have the look of a 4-quarter battle royale where the first to blink potentially loses. Let’s get to the first look.
Series record / last meeting
Alabama leads the series 45-27-4, but Georgia has a 1-game streak in the series. In the last meeting, the Dawgs avenge their only regular season loss with a 28-7 physical pounding of the Tide in the SEC championship game. The Georgia defense got after Ty Simpson’s ass and held the Tide to negative yards rushing. Georgia took advantage of turnovers, special teams and field position to generate easy points and to send the Tide faithful to the exits midway through the 4th quarter. In the months following, Alabama fans could not accept the absolute domination claiming Georgia won only because of Alabama mistakes
Gambling degenerate facts
According to DraftKings, after opening as a 3 point favorite, Georgia is a -1.5 point underdog with a point total of 55.5 with Bama as a -122 money line favorite. Essentially, Bama is favored due to home field advantage.
Interesting statistic:Â 49.12% (Alabama’s 3rd down conversion rate)
Alabama has been extremely efficient on offense and has been good at staying on the field. 3rd down was the difference in game 1 in Athens last year, and if the Dawgs have their best chance to win on Saturday night, the defense needs to be able to get off the field and get the ball to the offense with good field position. The Florida State game is an interesting data point for Saturday night where the Tide only converted 1/3 of their 3rd downs. The Georgia defense is a step up in competition from the Seminoles.
Early outlook
It’s time for Georgia to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa. If Georgia wins 3rd down, I really do think we are all going to be happy on Saturday night. If not, we will be staring down the remainder of the SEC gauntlet knowing that Texas doesn’t play either Georgia or Alabama and Bama will have the tiebreaker over us to get to Atlanta. That also means Georgia has 1 strike against us in the season-long battle to get to the CFP.
If the Dawgs can contain Keelon Russell, I do think the Georgia offense has one particular advantage to exploit in this game. The Georgia offensive line can control the game and keep the Alabama offense on the sideline.
I hate to say it, but right now, Bama wins a close one due to home field advantage and the real Bama privilege. Dawgs, please make me eat those words.
What’s your thought right now for Saturday?
Given the rivalry between the Alabama freshman class and UGA undergraduate admissions, what was your safety school? My answer is I didn’t have one.
Let us know in the comments below.
Are Metchie and Williams at full speed for the game?
I believe Kirby is a much better coach than Deboer, but what I’ve seen from Bama this season has my Inner Munson skeered. My heart says the Dawgs, but my head says Bama. Stupid brain.
I’m not feeling this one. Our defense has been leaky against much worse teams. Offense hasn’t faced a lot of adversity. Would love for the Dawgs to be “man enough”.
EE, I’m sorry buddy, but “a one game streak”. Really? 🙂
“Georgia hasn’t been tested to this point”?????????????????…GO DAWGS!!
What did the alabamia cheerleader say after having sex in the back seat of an abandoned vehicle…..
“Daddy, git off me, you’re crushing my cigarettes”….
Foreplay in Ala , six pack of BuschLite and he says get in the truck bitch!!
Our defensive performance against Vandy did not elevate my hopes of winning the 3rd down battle. Not sure we have the D-line to slow down the Alabama running game. Also, I am still not certain what our O-line is at this point. They are calling for heavy rain on Saturday. Who does that favor? This game could go either way. What I am certain of is this game had very little meaning beyond CFP seeding. We are a long way from the winner take all mentality we once knew.
The Krytonite to Kirby’s defense has always been a mobile accurate passer.
3rd and Schumann is much more important than which box of crayons Bobo uses.
As stated above the rain should help the good guys. Both on the field and in the stands. It’s hard to maintain that stadium noise in the rain.
All things equal I give bama the edge until Kirby finds an away to break the Tuscaloosa bad luck. If it takes a flood game to get a happy ending bring it on.
I only applied to Georgia. This is a mindset game. The team that is focused and doesn’t blink wins.
fun stats –
bama
total off. yds per game 473
yds per carry 4.9
rushing per game 186 yds.
uga
total def yds allowed per game 244
yds per carry 1.9
rushing per game allowed 57 yds
points per game
bama 49
uga 13 allowed
have a game chris cole
To quote Saban, “SEC schools hosting at night NEVER lose”.
Today is the anniv of the Pulpwood game. My Inner Nolan Smith II We a 7-5 Team ain’t no superstitious but is a lil stitious this might just be the omen we need to go ahead and show up for this game.
Staring at Nick Saban across the sidelines was a problem. Now they’re staring at Kirby. I think we roll! Defense will be downright nasty. Offense will be methodical. Dawgs 31-17…
…except for the weather. If it truly pours we win a low scoring tight one but MUST contain their QB from converting 3rd & 4th downs with his feet on explosive plays.
This one’s like nailing jello to the wall.
They took a beating in Atlanta last December. Some teams respond well to that. Some teams fold when things start going sideways. Who are they? Who knows?
Really hot offenses, can go really cold when faced with some adversity. Can we give it to them? Will the weather help? Who knows?
It would be great if the crosswinds took away the deep part of the field and the game had to be played solely at the los, but the weather is harder to predict than the behavior of 19 and 20 year olds. So again, who knows?
We gotta sco, sco and sco some mo and we gotta make 12 hesitant…and hit him. Can we? Will we? Who knows?
Interesting that the betting public moved the line that much early. Would be more interesting to see whether the sharps move it back towards the good guys before kickoff.
The guys who set the lines usually know what they’re doing.
Here’s the variable that I hope comes into play:
Is Miss Kaylyn’s team man enough to beat Georgia?
Something tells me this team is built different and that what we’ve seen in these warm up games isn’t the full picture. I predict a reverse 2008 black out.
Dawgs by a bunch.
My heart says Dawgs win a close one. Don’t ask what my head says. My backup plan was there was no backup plan. Go Dawgs!!