First look at Auburn

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The Dawgs head back to the Plains on Saturday to renew acquaintances with the Alabama Cow College in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. The Dawgs look to build on a solid performance this past Saturday against Kentucky by taking down Auburn at night in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Thank goodness the SEC came to its senses to find a way to keep games like this on the “annual” schedule. Let’s get to the first look.

Series record

Georgia has recently taken control of the series 65-56-8 primarily as the result of a current 8 game winning streak and a 19-6 domination over the last 25 meetings.

Last meeting

Coming off a heart-breaking loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa, the Dawgs return to Sanford Stadium on Homecoming (hahahaha!) to control the game 31-13. Carson Beck plays one of his best games of the season going 23 for 29 for 240 yards and 2 TDs. Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier combine for 126 yards on 23 carries and 2 TDs. The key stat from the game was Georgia’s domination of 3rd down as the Dawgs converted over 50% and held Auburn under 33%.

Gambling degenerate facts

The Dawgs are currently a 3.5 point favorite with a 46.5 point total. The Dawgs are a -170 favorite on the money line.

Interesting statistic 33.87% – 3rd down conversion rate

That conversion rate doesn’t look terrible (it’s not good) until you look under the covers. In the 2 SEC games the Tigers have played so far, their offense is 3 for 28 on 3rd down. The Mendoza line would look good for Auburn right now. That shows an offensive line that can’t get out of its own way. The question is whether the Georgia defensive front 6 can take advantage of that to get Auburn behind the chains and then get off the field.

Early outlook

The spread indicates a close game. I think that’s all because the game is at Auburn at night with them coming off a bye week. While the Georgia defense hasn’t exactly played to the standard, they are going against an offense whose only touchdown last week came off a 2-yard drive after an interception at Kyle Field. If the Dawgs can find a way to break the 30-point barrier, this game seems to be a win. If Auburn can pull them down into an ugly game, the Tigers have a chance to pull the upset. It may surprise you, but Georgia has better team defensive statistics than Auburn with the Tigers giving up 2 fewer points per game. I think the Dawgs win and could do it easily.

What’s your thoughts on a Wednesday morning? Let us know in the comments below.

This entry was posted in Auburn’s Cast of Thousands, SEC and tagged , , , , by eethomaswfnc. Bookmark the permalink.

About eethomaswfnc

I've been a Dawg my entire life. UGA was always my dream school where I received 2 Terry College degrees and met my DGD wife. I've been a season ticket holder for over 30 years and love the in-stadium experience over anything from Section HD. My first game in Sanford Stadium was the 1981 Auburn game where we clinched the SEC championship. The best game I've attended in person was the Midnight Miss against Ohio State (nite, nite!). The best home games I've attended were the 1984 Clemson game (the Butler did it) and the 2013 LSU game (that 4th down is still the loudest single moment I've experienced between the hedges). The game I love to win is against the Handbags (FTMF), and the game I hate to lose is the NATS (Tuck Fech).

19 thoughts on “First look at Auburn”

  1. I’m very nervous about this one. Night game, they had an extra week, they are due for a win in the series, we haven’t pressured the QB well , it’ll be loud and it’s do or die for Freeze. I don’t think we cover as we don’t typically. Just hope Woodring sticks the winner in as time expires.
    Aladawg

  2. Understanding the culture at UGA football plus the added DISLIKE for the loveliest little cesspool on the plains, when your HC speaks, “How ’bout those Fuckin’ Dawgs”…I’d venture to say CKS is on the mutha’…#AUBURN SUCKS!!

  3. For my dad’s generation, the big rival was Tech. For my son’s, it was Florida. For mine, it is Auburn. I am guessing that the people who are in school now will feel that way about Alabama?

    • I am at the ripe Old age of 67 and it is now and forever will be the one tooth hillbillies that play at Kneel Land. I despise those mothers. Fat phil was a nightmare. F ’em all.

  4. I’ve never understood why Auburn was getting so much upset love from the beat reporters all offseason. Almost every advantage they have in this game is intangible. At home, at night, extra week to prepare, wounded and desperate for a win, rally around the coach who could be fired. That said, I think the line dropped because both our starting tackles at the beginning of the season could be out. If Hughley slides to LT and Juan takes RT, Glover at RG, I think they can hold up ok, given Gunner’s escapability. I do worry about Gunner getting happy feet again, but Hughley is a good pass blocker. I think we’ll do our 2025 thang and RTDB and take shots. Defensively, Jackson Arnold has one big game a year and he hasn’t had it yet. Mobile QBs are a killer against Smart/Saban defenses. I like Justin Williams and Chris Cole to play a little more due to their speed and maybe spy Arnold. But the DL has got to get to him. The Auburn OL is average, Arnold seemingly has no internal clock. Did he fix it over the off week? I know our DBs can’t hang with Coleman and Singleton, so that’s concerning if we don’t get home. If the Dawgs can handle the noise, they will 24-20. If not, Katie bar the door.

    • I’m curious why we don’t have Allen, Wilson, Cole and Williams on the field at the same time on third downs with Gabe Harris and Q Johnson as stand up ends. Either Miller, Hall or Griffn to anchor at DT. No tellin’ which, if not all 6 stand up guys are coming with speed and bad intentions. We have to get creative. We don’t have the 22 NFL players to just line up the same and know our Jimmies and Joes are better than anything the other guys draws up.

      • Depends on yards to go. You just named 7 guys so that leaves only 4 guys to cover. What if they’re in 11 personnel? If it’s 6 or longer to go you sub out one of those OLBs for a star and I agree. If it’s 5 or less you take out an ILB and put it another DT.

  5. Auburn can’t make 3rd downs and we give them out like candy at Halloween. Something has to give here.

    The game worries me for all the intangible reasons. Both teams have played in tough environments, we won and they lost both. I think our offense does enough to score, and the defense bends but doesn’t break much. Dawgs in a squeaker.

  6. This is our coming out party for the D. Not only does #Auburn Sucks, but Auburn sucks. We will score on 6-7 drives. Auburn…at most…3 drives. Gonna be like last week. We have more talent. Dawgs 35 – plainsmen 13.

  7. I watched the Auburn Oklahoma game and Auburn’s defense is the real deal..or at least it was that Saturday. The Refs handed Oklahoma that win..Auburn is a dangerous game (…but then every game left on the schedule seems to be).
    This has all been said today and I agree..
    The keys to a Georgia win.,
    Be cool against the noise..like you did in Knoxville
    Get pressure on the QB
    RTDB and then run it some more.
    Protect Gunner
    Stay ahead of the chains to avoid obvious long passing situations
    Don’t get called for PI or D holding
    Use Dillon Bell even more (playmaker)
    I think Georgia’s running game…(we’ve got RBs!) will wear Auburn down.

    • I agree with everything you just wrote, Ugly, but you missed two keys. 1) Don’t let them convert 50%+ of their 3rd downs, and 2) Avoid giving up explosive plays in the passing game.

      I also think your “Get pressure on the QB” key might be the most important of all of them.

  8. Auburn’s QB holds the ball forever (and is why he was sacked 10X vs Oklahoma), BUT we are having problems getting pressure on the QBs so far this year, so does that make him look like the greatest QB in college football as the Tennessee and Alabama QBs did when they played us?

    While it’s true that Auburns defense is very good this year, they are struggling on offense, so maybe that’s in our favor. If it’s a battle of FGs and field position, I like our kickers over anyone elses. I just hope our O-line holds up and can stay healthy all game long, otherwise it may be a 3-0 slugfest that will only please my Father-In-Law’s generation.

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