Category Archives: Kentucky: Is It Basketball Season Yet?

Mildcat or Wildcat – Kentucky preview

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We can’t be 25% through the regular season after Saturday night in Lexington, can we? The top-ranked Dawgs open SEC play in the bluegrass at Kroger Field against a Kentucky team reeling from a 31-6 home loss to South Carolina. At the beginning of the day on Saturday, there was talk of College GameDay making its first trip to Lexington, and at the end of the day, many have left the ‘Cats for dead while the Dawgs cruised to a lopsided win over an FCS opponent using a shortened 4th quarter (hey, Lane, maybe you need to learn something from Kirby about sportsmanship). Let’s get to the preview.

When Georgia Has the Ball

Likely much to Mark Stoops’s chagrin, the forecast for Saturday night has turned where there is little chance for rain and wind as the threat of rain appears localized to Friday. That likely means Mike Bobo will be given freer rein over the play calling and let Carson Beck play. Stoops wants this game to be played in a phone booth, and Kirby has obliged on multiple occasions especially in Lexington. Similar to last year’s blowout in Athens, a fast start by the Georgia offense puts the game away early as it is going to be a challenge for the Wildcats to keep up with Georgia in a track meet. Saturday would be a great time for the Georgia offensive line to assert its dominance early to give Trevor Etienne and the backs running lanes and for Beck to have time to pick apart the Kentucky secondary. The Kentucky defense did a good job of controlling the Gamecocks’ running game and will look to improve over the 5.6 yards per carry they allowed the Dawgs in 2023. While South Carolina didn’t throw the ball much, they were effective at 11.5 yards per attempt.

When Kentucky Has the Ball

The ‘Cats were downright awful on offense last Saturday. How does a team that only generated 183 yards of total offense keep the ball for over 32:00? Stoopsball, I guess. Kentucky ran the ball 46 times for an average gain of 3.0 yards per carry, and the passing game was worse. If the Wildcats can’t threaten Georgia with any passing game, there is no path to victory without a lot of help from Georgia in cheap field position caused by turnovers and special teams. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kentucky try to force Georgia to defend the quarterback run game with some easy RPO stuff thrown in … the types of things Brock Vandagriff did at Prince Avenue Christian before coming to Georgia. That appears to be the best formula for trying to stay ahead of the chains, keep the clock moving and limit possessions. I’m guessing Smart & Schumann know Vandagriff’s tendencies and will force him to try to complete passes into tight windows. How long a leash Vandagriff has at this point is anyone’s guess, so I would assume the Dawgs are also putting in some preparation for Kentucky’s #2 QB.

What Will Happen

The Dawgs need to get off to a fast start on both sides of the ball as they did in Athens last year. There is no reason to give this Kentucky team and their fans any hope. The Missouri game in 2022 comes to mind as a game where we allowed an overmatched opponent to stay in the game and took the Dawgs to the brink. Two early turnovers and an explosive play in the run game gave Missouri the boost they needed to get a double digit lead. I’m concerned that Kirby is going to be willing to play conservatively to allow the defense to attempt to suffocate the Kentucky offense and get out of Lexington with an ugly win and play into Stoops’s hands especially if the weather forecast changes to something a bit more nasty. I like the Dawgs to win easily, but giving 24 points on the road to a team not named Vanderbilt seems like a lot to me. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Stoops get a backdoor cover for his friends up in Youngstown. Kirby gets a solid win and a lot to chew on his team about for the next 2 weeks before the showdown with Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

Final Score: Georgia 38, Kentucky 17

What’s your current prediction for a Friday? Let us know in the comments section.

First look at Kentucky

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Saturday night in Lexington can be a scary place for Dawg fans. Typically, that has been because the game has been later in the year when the weather turns colder and the fall leaves show and Keeneland is closed for the season. None of that will be the case as the nation’s #1 team rolls into the bluegrass to take on Kentucky. The Wildcats are stumbling after a 31-6 beatdown at the hands of South Carolina, and they may be playing for their season on Saturday night.

Series Record: Georgia leads 63-12-2 and is riding a 14 game winning streak over the Wildcats.

Last Meeting: Georgia ran the Wildcats out of Sanford Stadium 51-13. Carson Beck carved up the Kentucky defense by going 28-35 for 389 yards and 4 TDs. The Georgia defense suffocated Big Blue’s offense by holding them under 200 yards of total offense and only 55 yards on the ground.

Gambling Degenerate Facts: BetMGM’s line is Georgia -24 and a -5,000 money line favorite with a 45.5 total.

Interesting Statistic: Kentucky Passing Yards per Game – 106.5

Kentucky is currently 130th in FBS (last in the SEC) in passing yards per game only ahead of Western Michigan, Wyoming, Air Force and Army. I’ll admit I thought Brock Vandagriff would be an upgrade over Devin Leary, but he was absolutely atrocious in his first SEC start on Saturday at South Carolina. If this holds on Saturday, I really see no path to a win for the Wildcats without a lot of help from Georgia on both sides of the ball.

Early Outlook

This game feels a lot like the Clemson game. Mike Stoops does not want this game to turn into a track meet where Georgia’s skill players take over the game, and eventually his defense implodes from being on the field too long. I expect the Cats to try to slow the game down, take advantage of a couple of breaks, and have a chance to win late. I just don’t see how they can do that against a stingy Georgia defense without getting cheap field position.

On defense, I expect the Georgia defense to dare Vandagriff to beat them with his arm. If Kentucky can’t find some semblance of a passing game to take the pressure off their offensive line against the Georgia defensive front, this game could get out of hand relatively quickly. I like the Dawgs to win easily but maybe not as easily as the oddsmakers believe.

What’s your current thoughts midweek before the Dawgs and Cats get together on the bluegrass? Let us know in the comments.