Tonight the Dawgs have a chance to take the next step to another national championship with a win over Ole Miss and move on to play Miami in the Fiesta Bowl. The Rebel sideline is going to look different without Joey Freshwater and his visor. The question is whether the Rebels can change their fortunes from game 1 where the Dawgs overwhelmed the Rebels in the 4th quarter.
Let’s get to the preview.
Gambling degenerate facts: Caesar’s has the Dawgs as a 6.5 favorite with a -250 moneyline and a point total of 56.
Interesting statistic: 2.85 and 4.26 (yards per rush allowed)
I don’t think this has changed from game 1. This statistic is the big difference between the teams. Georgia’s defense has been stingy to run against while Ole Miss has been susceptible to teams with good offensive line play and a QB who is willing to run it himself.
When Georgia has the ball
If Georgia does what they did the first time where the Dawgs never punted, we are going to be happy with the result. The Georgia offense led by Gunner Stockton’s 5 total TDs overwhelmed the Ole Miss defense to the tune of 510 yards, 34 first downs and more than 37:00 of possession. All of that started with an offensive line performance resulting in 133 yards combined for Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens. A balanced passing game with multiple explosive plays made it difficult for the Rebels to get any success against the Georgia offense.
When Ole Miss has the ball
Since the earlier game, the improvement of the Georgia defense is well chronicled, and many point to this game’s 4th quarter as the driving factor in that improvement. Ole Miss had no running game to speak of other than Trinidad Chambliss’s ability to escape the pocket in game 1. Even then, the Rebels didn’t break the 100 yards combined mark on the ground. I expect to see the Georgia defense get after Chambliss as they have in every game since the first Ole Miss game. I don’t expect we’ll see the Georgia defense on their collective heels as they were for the first 3 quarters in Athens.
What will happen
I expect the Georgia defense to bring some things out of the playbook that Ole Miss didn’t see in game 1. Kirby has been money in season rematches since 2017 with the most recent example being the Dawgs’ overwhelming win over Alabama in Atlanta in early December.
The Dawgs get their 200+ yards rushing again and get ready for a war in the desert.
Final Score: Georgia 38, Ole Miss 28
What do you think? Let us know in the comments.
5 straight teams with byes have lost. That would be every damn one. Will it be 7 come kick off?
It might well be.
I’m in full Munson…
and if that trend continues, the whole structure of the CFP should be thrown into the trash can.
Heck..it should be thrown in the trash can anyway.
In the NFL, the BYE for the playoffs means that your team will play in 2 weeks with WEEKLY games going on.
In the CFP, the BYE means that your team will not play for 1 month and the games are NOT weekly…ever (who wants these games in the middle of the week?).
In a nutshell, the CFP games are spaced too far apart as we continue to see the teams with BYEs lose. I thought that the BYE was supposed to be a good thing?
Here’s my opinion for changes to college football:
(1) Move the transfer portal to the spring so that it does not intefere with teams playing in the playoff.
(2) Get rid of the early December signing date and only have the February signing date (like it used to be) so that playoff teams don’t have to worry about it during the season (this will also help reduce the coaching carousel from blowing up during the season).
(3) Play every playoff game on SATURDAYS (FRI/SAT in the event of too many playoff games for 1 day).
(4) The playoffs start the week after the championship games.
(5) BYES (if necessary if/when they go to 16 teams) will mean that your team will play in 2 weeks.
I know that these things will not happen because they make too much sense, but I’d love to see it happen.
This makes sense to me as a fan.
Coaches don’t want to move back to original signing period. They want the new guys in the conditioning program ASAP.
The scholarship limits don’t allow the transfer portal to be one spring window. It’s a great idea but see above for new recruits.
Everything else depends on the people who are paying … the networks. None of them want to step on the toes of the NFL. If it conflicts with the wishes of the NFL, they are not going to do it. To use the car dealer analogy, the college football apparatus is the customer. The networks are the salespeople who are doing the negotiation. Roger Goodell is the general manager you never see that the sales guy has to consult with.
We need to start fast on offense. That’s the one thing the 0-5 teams with a bye couldn’t do. The layoff effect is real and a big disadvantage.
Ole Miss has their own disadvantage on offense. How does a coach prepare his current team while working on recruiting for their new team. It’s been reported that the LSU part of Ole Miss has been doing that every evening.
This is Pete Golding’s biggest game ever. He knows Kirby will be run first that includes short quick passes. That means stack the box and hope you avoid explosive plays. Hopefully Gunner can make that hurt early if so Dawgs roll big.
I’d love to see us replicate our offensive performance from the first meeting, but that’s a pretty high bar. Missed tackles were a problem for our defense last time and may he again due to the long layoff. I think we win 27-20
Our defense will be the difference.
I’d like to see Taylor take the top off tonight… They won’t see that coming.
How I envision it happening:
https://youtube.com/shorts/JVtBK1mk3gk?si=gnmg2iPYaYNrB667
My prediction is unchanged from last time. Dawgs should win both lines of scrimmage, so barring a disastrous turnover situation, they should win. I’m definitely concerned about the layoff, but see how the other two bye seeds do today before we jump off the cliff. Remember that Kirby (the Adjustment King ™️) prepared differently this year, so hopefully that brings the difference in performance we need. Dawgs 34-21.
Concerning the layoff factor..the body of evidence so far is overwhelmingly decisive..it’s real.
The difference in the way anOSU looked in the first and second halves last night is further evidence it could be a thing. (But honestly, Miami was quicker, better coached and stronger and hungrier than the Bukize) Unless the layoff factor is proven to be coincidental in today’s games, we might want to worry a little about tonight’s game.
But if there is a coach that I believe can deal with it..it’s Kirby Smart.
Dawgs 37 – 27
I’m guessing Kirby spent a bunch of the offseason with the staff reviewing the schedule of game prep with the extended layoff.
We didn’t lose last year because of the layoff. We lost because Notre Dame made plays in the middle 8 that changed the entire game and our offensive line was a MASH unit.
Lemme guess. OM scores on their first drive thanks to converting two 3rd and longs and a 4th & short. We open with a quickly stalled drive. We must have signed a contract with ESPN for this to be the script.
But then we roll. Hard. OM is not all that and have far too many distractions to be disciplined and focused to win a championship level game. They’ll be fast and loose at first, but our running game including Gunner takeoffs will grind them down. Defense will be tough though I do worry about missing Gabe Harris. Need someone to get nasty and get after Trinidad. I want to see D pressure all night and good use of 13 personnel. Throw in some offensive explosives and we should be 24-17 at the half, 45-24 on the final scoreboard. GATA!
Ole Miss is a very solid squad. Beating the same team twice in the same season is tough. Add in the Bye Jinx, and I don’t like how this will end for the Dawgs tonight. Ole Miss wins 30-20.
You do realize Kirby is unbeaten in rematches regardless of the team that won the first game?