So, let’s see how the 2.0+ rule is holding up in the SEC. At season’s end, here’s the final numbers. I included a column for “change since week 4” to see how much the season twisted and turned since I first started pulling this data.
And for final turnover margin.
Notes:
- Georgia beat three teams that ranked above it in Net YPP, and two losses came to teams who owned turnover margin in the conference for the season. No need to remind anyone of the Ole Miss and Alabama debacles, but turnovers were critical in both losses (4 interceptions, 3 fumbles to two interceptions for OM and AL).
- I’ll say this again – although there are sexier candidates out there – Lanning, Cigaretti, etc – I still tip my cap to Kirby for what he accomplished. The stats above suggest Georgia shouldn’t have been in the SECCG, let alone winning it.
- Joey Freshwater, on the other hand, should get the Darwin Award for what he didn’t accomplish in Oxford…losing to #9, 10, and 14 in Net YPP on the list, two of which weren’t turnover margin all stars, either. What a dolt.
- My second nod, as much as I hate to say it, for COTY would be Billy Napier. Florida improved throughout the year, had some good wins down the stretch, and was a boneheaded overtime away from upsetting Tennessee, to boot. And if Lagway hadn’t got hurt…nah, I’m not buying that. Still, Bayou Billy actually proved his worth. Florida was fueled by turnovers, as noted in their improvement in the margin there.
- On the flip side, Pittman’s experiment with Petrino seemed to pay off, if they could’ve played defense and not turned the ball over so much.
- Brent Venables, you need Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma more than you know.
- I don’t think anyone had a more abysmal year than Kentucky. Yeesh.
- Once again, Hugh Freeze should be studied, alongside James Franklin, for gross incompetence. While Franklin made the CFP Playoffs, Freeze’s unit was doing enough to be in the top of the SEC…if only they didn’t turn the ball over so often. There’ll always be the Texas A&M game.
- Explain to me again why Mizzou is such a sexy optic for the CFP Committee? Nothing points to this, including strength of schedule.
- I’ve recently heard that upwards of 30 Alabama players are seeking the portal. To finish top 3 in Net YPP and top 2 in turnover margin, end up with three losses to unranked teams, and miss the playoffs, DeBoer might be joining them.
- If 2.0 was the old standard bearer in the playoffs, it’ll be interesting to see what happens with the three SEC teams. Texas and Tennessee, by the 2.0 rule, would have a better chance than Georgia. One thing that I would argue, though, in the current identity-less era of college football, is that other teams are more prone to mood swings in games, great in one, horrible in the other. Georgia isn’t immune, but they’ve remained the picture of consistency (consistently frustrating) all season long…and have a Championship ring to show for it. Does having a more solid team chemistry equal grit and success in tough games? Tennessee and Texas have been prone to really good games and really bad games…Georgia has been prone to really good halves, and really bad halves, but the games all seem to be the same. Will consistency win? Or will the slow starts and sleepwalking through games finally catch up to Georgia?
YPP is overrated when you look at the disparity in SOS. Georgia played a heap of very good football teams.
On the other hand, Dawg receivers dropped a heap of passes thus hurting the good numbers that come with explosive plays…
A dropped ball gets a zero ypp while a few more completed long ones changes the numbers dramatically.
The drops tendency seems to have fallen off at least some in the late season (or so it seems to me).
And I don’t know this, but is looks like Gunner has a somewhat softer touch on the ball than Carson…who has a cannon. But the receivers will need to get more separation because I doubt Gunner can hit the tight spot like Carson.
YPP strikes me as a lot like ERA in pitching: a decent general measure but one that leaves out a lot of nuance. There needs to be a formula that factors in SoS – maybe add opponents’ strength of schedule to the equation too – road vs home games, etc. Baseball statisticians devised ERA+, FIP and OPS+ as a way to show how players and teams perform vs their peers by the league-wide standards of a given season and there’s no reason football statisticians can’t try to do the same thing. (Maybe they have and I just don’t know about it.)
Agree. Teams like Texas and Tennessee got a lot of their net YPP average playing, and leaving starters in, against Sisters of the Poor State. If they were MLB pitchers, it would be like pitching most of their games against the White Sox.
CFB Nerds have something like what you are talking about with their relative stats that supposedly take into account your opponents and their opponents…I don’t understand it totally but here is their UGA page…https://collegefootballnerds.com/Team/Georgia
The big difference is we have apparently played a bunch of good defenses so our offensive stats are significantly lower than other teams. Hence the 30th absolute scoring offense but the 6th scoring offense when taken in relation to schedule.
Thanks for that. Interesting stuff on that site – it’s a real clocksucker.
Gunner has the “it” factor but I’d rather have Mr Duval co leading us into the playoffs…but fired up to see what Gunner can do with full control of the ship…G-man has the full respect of his teammates and that is one of those uncoachable things that be a difference maker when the shit hits the fan
With Carson we had a less talented team hit with critical injuries. Those painfully slow starts seemed to reflect a team attitude of “We got this so I just need to do my assignment…oh, shit! Just dropped a pass, whiffed a block, missed my read, etc.”. With Gunner the team will hopefully realize they need to immediately step up to help…put my body in front of the DB, catch with my hands, hold the ball high&tight, dominate my blocking assignment. In hindsight, Carson is too good to fail at leadership. We all saw him pout and be frustrated with the mistakes. Wish he’d learn to grab facemasks, slap asses, visit with players on the bench to explain the thinking on the field. Just not his style maybe but he’ll have to do it at the next level to be successful there. I think Gunner will be more rah-rah than chip on the shoulder attitude like Stetson. Hope that’s enough to light the spark coming out of the tunnel for this group.
This metric is off this year. I think it is due to there being no real top QB in the SEC. When the best ones are Dart, and Milroe who are both as prone as Beck to bad turnovers then you have these stats that are not demonstrative (I hope) of team success.
Kirby has shown a new side this year. He was very patient with Beck through that stretch and rallied the team after each loss, and kept them in the fight. To me at least this has been his best coaching performance because despite recruiting rankings and Butkus awards this has been his least talented team but the one that has stuck together the most and played its best when it had to.
I can’t wait to see how this 12 team playoff shakes out. As cyndiaandlarry says above we have played a difficult schedule and that has to work in our benefit as the good teams win and advance.
Is this Kirby’s best with less talented team hit by injuries or Kirby’s worst at team preparation, skill position coaching and developing leadership? I honestly don’t know. In the “did more with less department” the voting edge might go to Beamer. We were favored to win the SECCG and did it ugly. USCe was not even supposed to be in the conversation.
That is a good question. I will go with less talented due to the injuries. I put a lot on position coaches but absent repeated chronic shortcomings i.e. Willie Martinez, the D Line late in the Richt era, I will give that a pass and assume that the players are not as good as they were forecast to be.
Beamer deserves credit for sure. South Carolina over performed their expectations and did so by playing a tough schedule even though they lost to the three best teams they played.
With NIL and the Transfer Portal bringing a bit of parity to the ranks, I think that Net YPP will become the Jeff George of statistics. Yes, you can put up some impressive numbers, but if you don’t win, it don’t mean shite. I’ll take a coach and a team who expects to and knows how to win at the end of the game (or at least by the 8th OT).