One of the primary points of constant debate since the close of the 2024 season has been surrounding the offensive struggles exhibited during the year. Between Beck’s gaffes with interceptions and the lack of production on the ground, there is much to be discussed and analyzed in determining the “root cause problem” of what happened in 2024.

Today, I’m presenting some data on offensive production from 2021 to 2024, but I want to explain the data elements in the tables first.

The first three columns show the opponent, the opponent’s Defensive YPP in the examined year, and the rank of that defense compared to others in the nation. These YPP elements include postseason performance and ranking, but I’m only analyzing the performance during regular season games and not against post-season opponents. Why? Usually the post-season opponents that Georgia has faced increases the overall strength of schedule faced, and I wanted to look at this from just the regular season, instead. The darker the red color here, the worse it is for Georgia, in other words, the stronger the opponent.

I excluded FCS opponents and only analyzed BCS opponents. Averages for the season are found at the bottom.

For each game, I provided the Opponent Points Allowed (OppPtsAllowed) and our points allowed (UGAPtsAllowed). The rest of the data insights include the total number of offensive plays, total yards, then a breakdown of yards and plays for passing and rushing, along with their averages. In this case, the bright green and bright reds represent season highs and lows. The scaled red and green colors reflect better or worse performances against the averages. The darker green, the better the performance, the darker red, the worse.

The final three columns shows the turnover margin, as well as penalty yards applied to Georgia and those to the opponent.

2021 – The First National Championship

This may be a little hard to see, so let’s step it out a little.

2021 was definitely the year of the Georgia Defense. Three shutouts and a regular season average against BCS opponents of 6.9 points allowed. This is the high water mark year for Kirby’s defenses. A few things that stand out, as you’ll see, is that Georgia ran the fewest average offensive plays resulting in the second lowest average yards per game for a Georgia offense. Still, the 39.3 points per game is the highest offensive average points per game in the four year data set.

An additional item of note from the next level is that the 238.9 pass yards per game is the lowest average in the four year set, while rush yards close to 200 per game is the second highest rushing performance by Georgia from 2021-2024. While the passing yards were lower, the 10.1 pass yards per play, notably, was the highest in the four year period. The average yards per rush was second highest. The Georgia Offensive YPP of 7.2 was tied with another team in the four year data set...but can you guess which squad (22, 23, or 24) tied for the 7.2 OYPP mark?

One thing of note here…with a 10.1 average and only 24 attempts per game, this translates to the term “explosiveness”. While fewer, the effectiveness of the catch and run was immense. In other words, the highest stake play on the offensive side that has more negative outcome possibilities than positive was utilized less, but way more effectively. That typically translates to success, amirite?

Additionally, the 38 rush plays per game was the highest mark in the four year arc of data. So, some things that can be taken away from analyzing this insight:

• More running = more clock control = fewer plays on defense if you can manage the field, down, and distance well. That equals an advantage to an already other-worldly defensive unit.
• Explosiveness, while usually equating to touchdowns, translates to more opportunities to remain on the field. Being able to pass for a 10 yard per pass play clip means you’re getting out of third and longs or setting yourself up for short down and distance opportunities, so the little-used pass can be more of a weapon…but when the team is obviously run-oriented, it makes loading the box a zero-sum endeavor and the passes and yards come easier.
• At roughly 62 plays per game, this was the fewest offensive plays run in the four-year stretch. I wonder if that was lowered by more slow-rolling death marches down the field to conclude the games?
• Georgia only had to use 70 or more plays in three games. This was also the lowest, as each year after featured at least five games requiring 70 or more plays, and 2024 features six games of 70 offensive plays or more.
• The defensive YPP raking for 2021 opponents was the second highest average for a season in the four years. I’m sure you can already guess which year was the toughest year in DYPP.

We’re leaving one element out here, and it’s an important one:

There wasn’t one game where Georgia ended in the negative on turnover margin. The average on the year was close to +1, and I’ve said here before that the lack of turnovers generated on defense (despite the promise of defensive “chaos”) has been an area of concern over the past couple of seasons. Coupled with more passes (which you’ll see in later posts) and more turnovers as a result, this is a swing element in the data sets that wasn’t an issue in 2021.

Additionally, the penalty yards for Georgia in 2021 was the second lowest generated in the four years’ time. Surprisingly, as you’ll see, 2023 was our least penalized year. Also surprisingly, 2023 was the year where Georgia’s opponents were likewise penalized the least. What won’t be surprising to see, though, is that 2021 was the LAST year where Georgia was penalized LESS than our opponents.

Of note, this was Lanning’s last year as DC. Georgia’s DYPP from 2021 forward:

• 2021: 1st
• 2022: 14th
• 2023: 5th
• 2024: 35th

Tomorrow: 2022, the Second National Championship Year.

What do you take away from this data? Does Georgia miss Lanning and Monken more than we realized? Is it really the offensive line or is the defensive line? Discuss…