With the big reveal coming tonight at 7pm on ESPN, I wanted to take a stab at speculation in helping to determine who will make the first list of the selections in advance. I must admit, I’m a Fabris Pool dropout and by no means consider myself a college football expert, but given the drivel I see daily on Twix and socials, I think I’m about as qualified as anyone else out there…so here goes. JP’s CFP 12 selection, brought to you by Outlaw Light Beer. Because just when you thought you couldn’t get cheaper worse than Natural Light, Outlaw Light says “hold us”.

First-Round Byes

#1 – SEC Officials (SEC Champions) – Let’s face it, there’s not been a more talked-about group in college football this year. No matter the outcome, if it involves Alabama or Georgia or even Texas, you better believe that something shady and worthy of replay angles that are shakier and blurrier than the Patterson-Gimlin film will be a factor. SEC Officials are undefeated this season, which is more than we can say for Auburn football.

#2 – The Portal Masters (B1G or possible BIG XII Champs) – Let’s face it, either Texas Tech or Indiana is going to find a way to get a bye, and when everything else is laid to waste after pointless conference championship games, injuries, and attrition, one of the portal masters is going to be sitting here. I’m thinking, realistically, it’s Indiana.

#3 – Head Coaching Contract Buyouts (SEC Championship Runner-Up) – You could make for a potentially great coaching staff if you could convince all the fired coaches to get together and coach a team for the playoffs, but I doubt they’d get out of their own way to do it. Some great offensive and defensive minds are out there, just sitting around with nothing else to do, until they get called into action as a superhero group, which we could call the Revengers. However, since most of them couldn’t beat teams likely to make the CFP, anyway, what good would they be?

#4 – Ohio State (B1G Champions of Life) – Let’s face it, they were pre-determined to be here, regardless of outcomes, so might as well put them here. It’d be Notre Dame, but I think this spot belongs more to the Suckeyes. When Texass lost in the Greatest Game Ever Played on a Saturday noon slot in 2025, the Horns lost their right to claim this spot in the CFP.

Home Field Advantage – #5 Through 8

#5 – Heart Palpitations and Schizophrenia (Georgia Bulldogs) – Someone will be here without having to play in a conference championship and after losing a game that no one understands including the players themselves. I’m putting Georgia here because they keep finding a way to pull it out in the fourth, even if they do a terrible job of putting it in themselves throughout the first half.

#6 – Some Religious School or Something (BYU or Notre Dame) – Take your pick, it’s likely the Catholics or the Mormons are going to be in with a home field game by season’s end. Like a bad reading on your blood pressure, Notre Dame continues to creep higher and higher and no one is particularly fond of that fact. BYU, on the other hand, might be one of the best teams in the country but no one would know because College Gameday hates the BigXII or maybe Pat McAfee’s profanity and half-nudity isn’t welcomed in Utah. Note to self – look for homes in Utah.

#7 – A Team Coached by Someone Who is On Everyone’s Hot Boards to be their Next Coach (Ole Miss, Oregon, possibly Texas) – I’m thinking Ole Miss, but CFP logic never makes sense to me so I could just as easily see Texas here if they somehow win out. Mississippi doesn’t have the TV market but with several fanbases across the country watching Joey Freshwater continue to audition for what they believe is their head coaching vacancy, all eyes would be on Oxford. ESPN approves.

#8 – An ACC Pity Selection – I don’t see an ACC team in the top 4, and I struggle to see one even having home field advantage after Haynes King realized he needed 21 other people to play football in Raleigh this past weekend, Mario Cristobal did Mario Cristobal things, and a conference that’s allowing Virginia and Louisville to be relevant again doesn’t necessarily scream “advantage” in any shape or form.

Last Four In

#9 – We Thought We Would Be Champions This Year, But… – Pencil in Texas or Oregon here. Oregon isn’t going much further after losing to Indiana and claiming one quality win against…Penn State? Whatever Dan Lanning was huffing prior to his post-game interview was for nothing, as it really seemed like a big deal at the time. Texas would love the home field, but I don’t see them making it through the rest of the season without one more loss…but that likely will come at the hands of Georgia or TAMU, and the committee will be okay with three loss Texas playing in the CFP.

#10 – Someone Else from Texas – Could be the Longhorns here, could be Texas Tech, could be TAMU if they implode, could be North Texas. Take your pick, the state has more college football teams than some states have Chick-fil-A’s, so there’s gotta be another Texas team getting in here, somehow, some way.

#11 – Someone You Swear Would Never Have Been Here at the Start of the Season. Or the Century – Virginia? Louisville? Georgia Tech? This could be another ACC Pity Selection, but color me surprised that any of these three are in the conversation at this time. Pittsburgh? They’re 7-2 with a freshman quarterback, have beaten exactly 0 ranked teams and lost to the one ranked team on their schedule in Louisville. But isn’t that the story in the ACC? Also, this could be Vanderbilt for all we know.

#12 – Group of Five Somebody – I don’t know who it’ll be, but my only interest would be in who Georgia would play. Let’s call it Memphis, or maybe South Florida. This could also be the slot for another coach that could’ve been in at #7 above, but is a Group of Five coach so they can’t be ranked that high.

First Four Out

Miami – Carson Beck will end his career making 0 Playoff appearances (correction: as a starter). Could work out the same for Cristobal if he’s not careful. They have some decent wins, but their hope of backdooring into the CFP without a conference championship appearance just dimmed with the loss to SMU.

Vanderbilt – Lea gets a lot of credit for bringing in a hot hand in Pavia while using NIL funds to maintain a core of experienced players en route to a highly successful – by Vandy standards – season in 2025. What doesn’t get talked about enough is Lea’s inability to wrangle in Pavia and keep him from becoming the head case versions of Manziel and Mayfield. And what’s with all the fawning over Pavia’s mom? Creepy.

THEO VON ACTUALLY BAGGED DIEGO PAVIA'S MOTHER AFTER THEIR BET.

😭😭😭

THERE IS NOTHING LIKE COLLEGE FOOTBALL.
pic.twitter.com/BzSKEI4RBP https://t.co/1npMVJKAtj

— MLFootball (@MLFootball) October 26, 2025

Oklahoma – I expect this will be okay for Oklahoma and Venables, as he will probably get the call back to Clemson and the hell out of the SEC if Dabo steps down here soon…or if they fire Swinney, whichever comes first.

Louisville or Virginia – I think simply by the perspective that the ACC is wretched, someone of quality from the conference will be on the outside looking in. Could be both teams.

B1G Anybody – Kind of surpr/ised to see it, but the B1G doesn’t really have a lot of teams I see getting a nod unless something massively controversial happens, like putting USC or Michigan in the top 12, but that ain’t happening. For a conference with 97 teams across the coast, the quality of teams in the Greatest Conference on Earth really is getting quiet right about now.

What do you think…who do you got in the CFP for tonight’s selection?