First look at Alabama

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Georgia-Alabama. Dawgs-Tide. The 2 best programs in the sport over the last 8 years. They get together again on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa with the winner with a leg up in the race to Atlanta. The winner likely clinches at least an at-large bid in the CFP, and the loser loses most of their margin for error for the remainder of the season. The Dawgs are being doubted after a clunker of a performance at Kentucky, and the Tide appears to be being anointed by the media.

Series Record: Alabama leads 43-26-4 and has a 1 game winning streak.

Last Meeting: Bama beats the Dawgs 27-24 in the 2023 SEC championship game snapping Georgia’s 29-game winning streak and ending hopes of the 3-peat. A terrible 2nd quarter forced the Dawgs to play catch up fueled by one of worst “no replay” decisions I’ve seen gifting the Tide a 4th down conversion that becomes one of the differences in the game. Bama won the game on both lines of scrimmage especially late in the 4th quarter allowing the Tide to run out the clock.

Gambling Degenerate Facts: Per FanDuel, Georgia is a 2.5 point favorite with a 48.5 point total. The moneyline has the Dawgs as a -126 favorite.

Interesting Statistic: Georgia Losses in the Kirby Smart Era When Scoring 30+ Points – 1

As it has normally been, the first team to 30 when these teams play will be the one who wins. Georgia has been unbeatable when finding a way to 30 with the only loss being to Tennessee in 2016. Saturday night is not a time for Kirby to get conservative and try to win a low scoring, rock fight kind of game. If Georgia doesn’t get to 30, I don’t like our chances to win.

Early Outlook

It’s interesting … Georgia has lost games to Alabama in the Kirby Smart era when getting off to fast starts. 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2021 are all games where at certain points the Dawgs had the Tide on the ropes at various times and didn’t put them away when given the chance. The 1 glorious win in Indianapolis was the result of a lot of bend but don’t break, keep the game close and finish in the 4th quarter.

Frankly, I don’t like that formula for winning in Tuscaloosa. If the Dawgs have a fast start on offense in them, Saturday would be a good time for that to show up. I do think the defense needs to attack the Bama offense from the beginning and not let up. The respect we gave Jalen Milroe likely led to the eventual loss in Atlanta.

Can the offense get to 30? If so, I believe there will be a lot of people in red & black celebrating in Tuscaloosa. If not, I worry that Bama gets that one play that makes the difference … I admit right now I’m not optimistic.

What’s your current thought before the Saturday night showdown? Let us know in the comments below.

This entry was posted in Alabama: Nothing Going for the State Other than Football, UGA and tagged , , by eethomaswfnc. Bookmark the permalink.

About eethomaswfnc

I've been a Dawg my entire life. UGA was always my dream school where I received 2 Terry College degrees and met my DGD wife. I've been a season ticket holder for over 30 years and love the in-stadium experience over anything from Section HD. My first game in Sanford Stadium was the 1981 Auburn game where we clinched the SEC championship. The best game I've attended in person was the Midnight Miss against Ohio State (nite, nite!). The best home games I've attended were the 1984 Clemson game (the Butler did it) and the 2013 LSU game (that 4th down is still the loudest single moment I've experienced between the hedges). The game I love to win is against the Handbags (FTMF), and the game I hate to lose is the NATS (Tuck Fech).

23 thoughts on “First look at Alabama”

  1. Win the LOS and you’ll win the game. I hope Greene and Truss can play winning football. If Carson has time and the backs have some room we’ll be fine. On defense the key position is ILB. They were a liability last December. If they can avoid mental mistakes and missed tackles and make Milroe uncomfortable we’ll be fine.

    I think we win comfortably. Which is meaningless, but that’s my feeling on it. I think we win because we’re the one’s with the chip and they’re dancing around having fun playing bad football teams thinking they’ve arrived ready to be crowned.

    I also think we have a big coaching experience advantage in this setting.

    Miss Kalyn and Co. ain’t been here. It’s gonna be different. I think we’re gonna clip them, put them in our pockets and take them home.

  2. I saw an interesting statistic last night that Alabama’s opposition has been quite weak on defense, yet there was a struggle against USF that might have revealed some weaknesses (video breakdown posted earlier this morning) and I personally think this is a game that’s not about the offense’s prowess, but is about Kirby’s Magnum Opus on defensive development and recruiting. This will be the defense’s game, in other words, and not the offense’s. While the fumble and Beck’s disappearance for a large amount of the SECCG has been much of the focus of offseason fodder, the game was largely decided by the defensive philosophy of spying Milroe and how that imploded in the 4th quarter. If there’s a group that’s been hungry for this opportunity for months now, it’s not the offense…it’s the defense. They want to get out there and create havoc and do what they can to pound Milroe into the turf for 60 minutes, and Milroe’s offseason comments have been probably tattooed on their brains for so long that they are going to be rabid come Saturday night. I believe they’re more aggressive than last year which means some of the explosive plays will happen for Alabama, but for the most part we’re going to be making Milroe move…a lot. On the flip side, I’m not expecting a sudden massive change in offensive philosophy or prowess, but more about efficiency and a few explosive plays. Bama’s defense has been looking better, but, again, the competition hasn’t been stout and I’m sure we’ve been making adjustments and coaching up the offensive line enough to where we should be ready. My optimism says a one point victory, my inner Munson says the environment and our timidity on offense gets us blown out. I remain optimistic…24-23 Dawgs pull it out on the final drive, Beck to Bell on a skinny post. Praying that comes true.

  3. Beck has to push the ball downfield. We can’t have all our completions at or near the line of scrimmage. I agree last year we WAY overcompensated for Milroe. He can throw bombs but not digs and outs. I hope Derek is right. But live in Bham with these folks and have come by my pessimism honestly.
    I’ll be doing my part Saturday – by which I mean nothing but pacing back and forth in front of the TV – but I’ll be giving it 100%!
    GO DAWGS!

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  5. It’s still Bama and they have owned us lately. I have hope, but my confidence is low as I’m afraid that we will play tight and the offensive calls will be conservative and that will get you beat against the better competition.

  6. Saw a rumor that London Humphreys was ill with mono and won’t be able to play. Between the injuries, illnesses and the refs love of Bama and my inner Munson is getting bigger.

  7. I am in full agreement with your post. I don’t think we win a 1 point game. Let’s face it, Alabama has been our kryptonite for a long time. Yes, we pulled out a miraculous win 17 years ago and again in the first national championship. But those were the exceptions, not the rule. If we aren’t up by two scores when the “not two minute” warning comes in the fourth quarter, I don’t think we win. I hate typing that, but I think it’s true. I’m praying the Dawgs prove me wrong but I’m also not inviting anyone over to watch the game with me. I probably won’t be too much fun to hang around with. Even the dog will likely go to another room. This post brought to by forty four years of listening to Larry Munson.

    • Yep, my wife will be gone before the 2nd quarter if this goes the way I fear. Heck, even if we’re up by 28 early in the 2nd, I’ll still be waiting for the other shoe to drop. I’m going to be one miserable SOB to be around for 3+ hours.

  9. For me it all comes down to how we play Milroe. We gotta get after this guy. I think our offense will move the ball against Alabama, if our OC and QB decide to turn this thing loose. There’s no evidence to suggest Dawgs can’t beat the Tide. I think our guys will get this thing done!

  10. I believe we’ll beat Bama when we actually do. Seems like they’ve turned into the modern day Floriduh

  12. Just a hunch that the OL will play better and so will Beck. My concern is with the DL’s ability to stop the run. Mykel’s availability will be massive. Jalon Walker’s pass rush could be the difference but we need more depth there.

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