Reader suggestion for this came from cyndiandlarry, so I’ll give my best “what if” scenario for CFP chaos. A few parameters to consider:

• The Committee said conference championship games would NOT hurt a CFP contender’s chances for being included in the playoffs.
• CFP rankings seem to have considered head-to-head results, as my colleague at work seemed to point out that CFP rankings releases have put the winner of head-to-heads above the loser in prior rankings, even if they are side-by-side.
• The CFP Committee seems to make things up as they go.

That said, let’s get into the hypotheticals:

Hypothetical #1 – All the favorites win.

Okay, this means that Ohio State (-4) wins, Georgia (-2.5) wins, Virginia (-4) wins, and Texas Tech (-12.5) wins. This would also need to include the conference champ from the AAC or the Sunbelt. Currently North Texas is a narrow favorite over Tulane and James Madison is a huge favorite over Troy.

If this is the case, you’re looking at this likely outcome:

#1 – Ohio State, #2 – Georgia, #3 – Texas Tech, #4 – Indiana

Sure, Indiana could be #2 or #3 since they see this as the latest one-loss team and losing to the glorious Bucknuts, but the top 4 would be this group of teams. Would they consider the strength of record (SOR) and strength of schedule (SOS)? Yeah, they should…doesn’t mean they will. Beauty contest, and all. That’s three conference champs in the top 3, but what about the rest?

#5 – Oregon, #6 – Ole Miss, #7 – Texas A&M, #8 – Oklahoma…then this is where it gets interesting. There’s no doubt the Committee and their B1G lean can’t stand the idea of FIVE SEC teams in the playoffs. Would they drop Alabama out, especially if it’s not a close win?

Hypothetical #1a – Alabama loses big.

If Alabama lays an egg, they drop out, pushing Notre Dame up to #9 or potentially sneaking Miami in at #10 at #9 and keeping Notre Dame at #10. Notre Dame draws viewers, and without Miami, the CFP Committee loses viewers from the Florida market (trust me, they’re probably thinking of this). I don’t see Texas sneaking in, especially since potentially both North Texas and Texas Tech would already be in, so there’s no need for the Texas viewership at that point.

Hypothetical #1b – Alabama loses a tight one.

In this case, Alabama drops to 10 and Notre rises to 9. Sorry Miami, quit doing Cristobal things and this wouldn’t be an argument.

That leaves #11 at Virginia and #12 as North Texas. Even in James Madison slaughters Troy, they’re ranked lower than both Tulane and North Texas, so James Madison is likely out, unless Duke wins…say, that reminds me.

Hypothetical #2 – All the underdogs win

This is where it gets interesting. In this case, I see the top 4 being as follows:

#1 Indiana, #2 Ohio State, #3 Alabama, #4 BYU

Now that’s an ugly look. Alabama makes a giant leap up and is ahead of BYU based on SOR and SOS, and also because Alabama is currently ranked higher than BYU. So what about the rest?

#5 – Oregon, #6 – Georgia, #7 – Texas Tech, #8 – Ole Miss, #9 – TAMU, #10 – Oklahoma or Notre Dame, #11 – Tulane, #12 – James Madison

#12 is the wild card…James Madison has one loss, and is currently ranked ahead of Duke (who is currently not ranked in the CFP rankings). Would the Committee leapfrog Duke ahead of James Madison just so the ACC would have a representative. No doubt, they’d love to avoid a conference lawsuit from the ACC, but this scenario has Notre Dame dropping out, which would likely be a formidable litigator than the whole ACC combined.

Why James Madison and not Duke? The current structure calls for the five highest-ranked conference champs, not five being four PF and the highest G5. If Duke doesn’t leapfrog James Madison, the ACC is eliminated. The Irish, though, I could see being kept at #10 and pushing out Oklahoma, who also has two losses and are likely playing on borrowed, time, anyway. This would avoid the five-team imbalance of the SEC in the playoff, and give the de facto ACC rep (in every other sport, any way) as Notre Dame to try to keep up appearances.

Hypothetical #3 – Texas Tech Wins, North Texas Wins, Virginia Wins, Georgia loses, B1G is inconsequential.

If this happens, here’s your Top 4:

#1 – Ohio State/Indiana, #2 – Texas Tech, #3 – Ohio State/Indiana, #4 – Alabama

Georgia, in this case, would finish no worse than sixth. They could finish at 5 (if it’s close), which would push all the contenders down a level. The #11 is Virginia’s and #12 is whichever G5 finishes highest in the final poll. That leaves the coveted #10 spot up for debate, which I covered in Hypothetical #2.

While the Committee is not viewing the change in head coaching at Ole Miss as an issue, it makes one wonder, if Ole Miss gets killed, what furor will arise over the exclusion of Miami, Notre Dame, or even BYU should BYU lose a narrow game against the final #2 team in the polls.

Hypothetical #4 – Miami and Vanderbilt play a secret game in Hawaii this weekend.

Who cares, they’re both likely out, anyway.

So what’s likely to happen?

Most likely outcomes:

1. The B1G maintains two teams in the top 4.
2. The SEC has no fewer than four teams in the CFP, with locks for Georgia, Ole Miss, TAMU, and Oklahoma. Alabama really, really needs to win, or lose a tight one.
3. Miami, Texas, and Vanderbilt outside looking in.
4. Notre Dame is praying for all the favorites to win, really needs BYU and Alabama to lose, but the Irish are likely in.
5. The ACC needs to cancel the officiating live look-ins, and do everything they can to help Virginia win, it’s their likely only hope.
6. TAMU, Ole Miss, or Oklahoma will fuel the fire that the SEC is overrated and didn’t deserve to be there.

JP’s Predicted Final CFP:

First Round Byes:

1 – Ohio State, 2 – Texas Tech, 3 – Indiana, 4 – Alabama (sorry, I’m not jinxing us by predicting a win)

First Round Games:

5 – Georgia, 6 – Oregon, 7 – Ole Miss, 8 – TAMU, 9 – Notre Dame, 10 – Oklahoma, 11 – Virginia, 12 – North Texas

Georgia hosts a first-round game against North Texas, wins, and gets ROUND 3 versus Alabama in the second round.

Third time’s a charm, right?

I guess we’ll find out on Sunday for sure. Make sure you take your beta-blockers, especially if you’re a fan of the ACC.