Alabama-Georgia square off with the SEC title on the line on Saturday afternoon at Mercedes Benz Stadium. As always, the stakes are extremely high for both teams. A Georgia win likely puts the Dawgs into the CFP as the #2 seed into a quarterfinal in New Orleans. An Alabama win secures their berth in the playoff with the possibility of securing a first round bye.
Let’s get to the first look.
Series record
Alabama leads 45-26-4 and holds a 3 game winning streak in the series.
Last meeting
The Tide ends Georgia’s nearly 5 year home winning streak with a 24-21 win in Athens in September. Alabama jumps out to an early lead behind a Heisman-worthy performance by Ty Simpson. Georgia comes storming back in the 2nd half behind a running game that generated 230 yards on the ground. A questionable 4th down decision by Kirby resulting in a failure to score late dooms the comeback. Bama runs out the clock to get the win.
Gambling degenerate facts
Georgia is a 2.5 point favorite with a point total of 47.5. Georgia is a -135 favorite on the money line.
Interesting statistic: 3 (number of games Alabama has averaged > 4 yards per attempt
The Alabama rushing offense has not been good this year. Even in the win earlier, the Tide barely averaged 3 yards per attempt on the night, and that wasn’t due to sacks. If the Dawgs’ rushing defense can hold Alabama under 100 yards on Saturday, I like our chances to win.
Early outlook
I don’t know what to expect. The Georgia offense was doing great things until it didn’t on this past Friday. The Georgia defense, even when it has been dominant, has found ways to spit the bit against the Alabama offense.
Can Georgia hit the reset button of poor starts from the last 2 games against Alabama? If so, I believe the Dawgs will win on Saturday. If not, I think we’re likely to be kicking ourselves again.
If a team gets to 30, it’s game over either way as I don’t believe either team is built to come back against the other. The teams with the QB who plays better regardless of the stats wins on Saturday.
Right now, I can’t bring myself to predict a win.
What’s your thought on Saturday? Let us know in the comments below.
I think people are making way too much out of the Tech game.
Agreed
I disagree only because of how bad our offense was after Bobo went down. He is the QB of the OL and makes the protection calls. Gunner was very uncomfortable without him and the run game disappeared.
I’m hoping Morris will take over with the protection calls and we put Glover at Center. He has already been in the fire this season. Tolliver isn’t ready and got abused against Tech.
You’re right. Hit the panic button. lol.
Bamas center is out. I wonder if they can figure out how to score without him.
Hopefully his replacement is a master of ole blocking. I saw way too much of that against tech in the second half not to be worried.
I can’t bring myself to predict a win either. I do remember Indy, though!
I predict we’ll score early. We’ll be down 20-10 at the half and it will have looked like Bama had our playbook for three quarters. End of third quarter score will be 27-17. Bama wont score again. We score with 4 minutes left to be down 27-24. We stop Bama on 3rd down with 2 minutes left but the refs call a BS defensive holding and Bama runs out the clock. Half of us will blame Bobo. The other half will blame everything not named Bobo.
Sorry, folks. I wouldn’t have predicted a win over UF in the 90s either. There is something to be said about having a team’s number. Just ask our rivals. I understand Kirby is >>> than Goff/Donnan, but, unfortunately, Bama is >>>> than Kirby right now, especially with the unpredictability of Bobo’s offense and our tendency in big games to wait until other team scores to turn it up.
There is absolutely zero chance Bama doesnt show up looking like Saban is still on the sideline. Im sure Texas understands how we feel.
By the way, On3 has us down to 5 in the 26 recruiting rankings thanks partly to Scared Jared. Thats the highest SEC team! When was the last time that happened??
Losing Curtis doesn’t seem like an issue to me other than to feed the message board “Kirby can’t hold onto a 5 star recruit” fodder.
We have 3 scholarship QBs on the roster. At least one was going to transfer next year if we got Curtis. Maybe they think about staying now and biding their time.
If our recruiting ranking went down because we lost DL or OL or RB or WR or whatever, then that would be cause for concern. But Curtis wasn’t going to play until ’27 at the earliest. And even that wasn’t guaranteed.
Until we start winning NC’s with only 5 star QB’s. I won’t worry about it as much as I do with getting dominating lineman. Then skilled position players. NIL has made it much easier to recruit a proven QB from lower levels if needed. I’m glad we’re not pinning our hopes on a true freshman QB. Maybe he asked Gunner are your leaving your dream job a year early.
In Indy Kirby had an NFL team. The uncertainty around center is multiplied by the kid bama has playing DT that will be in the nfl. I have no idea what to expect except Kirby loses to bama. Again.
Bamas center is out as well.
Let’s fucking go!
I’ve eat. I want you to eat, I want you to eat…You point at the score board and laugh at their undisciplined ass…we will not be hunted…Iron sharpens iron.
How about these fucking dawgs!
We can run the ball. We can stop the run. They have no running game.
We will win this game.
I like your thinking, our Brussels Dawgs.
I actually think that if Bobo can play, Georgia has a better shot winning this game than the last one, for one reason. And that is Gabe Harris’ and Quintavius Johnson’s improvement in pass rush and setting the edge this year. They were milk cartons in the early season, but not lately. I do agree it’s too high a hill to climb if Bobo can’t play, though. It’s a little easier to scheme around a backup guard, but it’s really hard to keep the offensive train rolling with an inexperienced center against top competition.
Very doubtful Bobo will play. I haven’t heard of anyone who covers Georgia who expects he will play.
Yeah, hoping for a miracle for sure. It’s the source of my pessimism about the game.
Bobo should just go full Ronnie Lott and lop off that broken foot. I’m sure someone in Biomedical Engineering can 3D print him a bionic replacement.
Bamas center is hurt as well.
Good point, but their redshirt senior guard I think replaced him, which is a lot better than a freshman. Either way, my eyes are on Jam Miller and the other RB. If they can’t play then that tips the scales to the good guys.
Shame on us if thats the only backup. Cant complain from the yacht.
Yep, we missed on a lot of guards for a couple of years. Thank goodness for Donnie Glover and Juan Gaston, but neither can snap.
Run the damn ball with authority and the pass game will be fine when needed. All out pressure on Simpson even if it means giving up some chunk plays. We can’t sit back and let them dictate things this time. Play to win instead of playing not to lose
24-20 Gumps. I really hope I’m wrong but until we start beating them with some regularity, I just can’t pick us.
I don’t have a damn clue. Until we can start beating them at least 50% of the time, Alabama is my new 1990’s Florida.
I came here to say the same thing.
Our defense as of late gives me hope. I agree with LtDannyJr above, we need to attack even if it means giving up a busted play. Don’t let Bama dictate the game. Kirby needs to flip the script.
I will beleive we can beat Bama the next time we beat Bama. I think it’s a game UGA is chasing and never leads and the first team to 24 wins. 27 – 24 in a game that’s not as close as the score. Sadly.
(Kdawg05)
Grok says we win 24-20
I’ll be tuned in for whatever but, we’re Alabama’s bitches until we’re not. Fix it, Kirby…
What does Kirby always want to do? Be physical. On offense we’ll try to run first. That’s going to require +4 ypc to work which includes the wr screens and Gunner running. Might happen early but bama can choke that off. If we’re behind the sticks on 2nd & 3rd down we’ll now need an OL that works, find our missing TEs and have Gunner be accurate on the move. Possible, but….
It’s clear on Defense you put pressure on Simpson their offense sputters. That means someone has to be blitzing. Not our best DNA but we got after King last week so it’s doable. Yet Kirby likes the whole bend not break thing…which loses to bama every time. And if we do get someone in the backfield they need to actually grab Simpson, not just wave an arm by him. Don’t need to sack him but do need to keep him pressured in the pocket. Horn and the explosive play is going to be the real problem. We just can’t let receivers run around free while in zone like we do…a lot.
There are no conspiracies nor collusions but Birmingham NEEDS bama to win to get their playoff money. You will not witness holding on bama and you will only see PI on us. The inevitable fumble will be ruled bama’s ball. Just saying.
That stated, I think Kirby now trusts his young D pups and turns them loose. Bobo fixes Gunner this week and the kid balls out with the quick intermediate throws and a strong running game both using 13 personnel for a very satisfying but close win…Dawgs 27 – Gumps 20.
I’m surprised Simpson isn’t on some kind of concussion protocol after last Saturday. Auburn rocked his ass a couple of times and he kept getting up. That one play at the goal line could have been called for targeting. Auburn defender hit him dead in the chinstrap with his helmet. Tough dude.
Agree…thought it was the kind of play they at least look at for targeting. We must GATA.
Dawgs win this one in fine fashion.
The running game is going to be the difference..
that and the Dawg defense.
I do worry about the officiating.
4th and long and the Bama receiver cradles the ball it as it bounces off the ground into his hands for a first down… and isn’t reviewed. This kind of shit every time we play them.
Straight up and fair, the Dawgs are the better team.
“I do worry about the officiating.”
I do, too. Call it both ways and I think we will be fine.
https://share.icloud.com/photos/07f6e5qh-JPEWj77bHtdasBKQ
I don’t think we can run the ball effectively without Drew at center. It will also affect our pass pro. Unless Tolliver has magically developed into a top level center since Friday afternoon, I’m afraid we’re in for a long day at the office. This game will be won by our defense, if it is won at all. Gunner will be throwing 90% screens and underneath to mitigate their pass rush. If we suck on 1st and 2nd downs, he’ll be running for his life.
Other than that, I like our chances!
Bama is going to stack the box to stop our running attack and bring pressure on Stockton. Gunner is going to have to throw on roll outs..and he is predictable to run to the right..and Bama knows that and Bobo knows that Bama knows that.
That’s what Bobo is going to have to scheme around.
I think he can do that.
Let’s not forget that Alabama has some pretty significant injuries of their own to deal with.
Dawgs win if officiating is fair…
Frazier breaks a long run for an early TD.
D pretty much holds off Bama’s running game and pressures the QB into mistakes.
Dawgs eat the clock on the last drive with a 10 point lead and a Bama defense that has been battered by Dawg running backs.
Your lips to God’s ears friend.
Alabama has won 10 of the past 11 games against Georgia. Kirby is 1 of 7 playing his former employer. The one win came when Stetson put the team on his shoulders and willed us to win. Mike Bobo was not our OC. I am not optimistic. I really wish A&M had taken care of business. Playing in the SECCG is precisely where we do not want to be.
We are goin to kick the living shite out of them fat ass elephants and leave Phyllis from Mulga and Roll Tide Willie cryin in their beer!
I think Phyllis from Mulga croaked a couple of years ago.
Gotta score 30. The only time we have beaten them in the last 5 million games was in Indy…not coincidentally we scored 33!
Dat Boi Swinney actually gave everyone the blueprint: JUST KEEP SCORING! YOU CANNOT SIT ON A LEAD AGAINST BAMA.
Lsu, Texas, and Tennessee followed it, and so can we. Or we can piss and moan about screens, the refs, Saban, Agent Kirby and all the rest.
Hang 42 on em and keep them out of the playoffs.
I’d like to think we learn from our previous mistakes. A couple of dropped passes/missed assignments and we’re playing Ole Miss again, instead. I like Kirby in rubber matches, and even with the injury at center, we’ve seemed to find a way to rotate and piece together a decent patchwork line when it’s been called on. Alabama has shown who Alabama is, nothing seems to be new except a late emerge in their running game, which is less of a function of playcalling and possibly more about health of their backfield. The defense has been stepping up and likely has a bone to pick with Simpson and Company, but the offense is going to have to figure out a way to counter a great Alabama defense.
Noah Thomas is emerging as of late, I think they’re going to stretch the field as much as possible; but we had over 200 yards rushing in the first tilt. Alabama will be keying on stopping the run but if we bring in 12 and 13 personnel and keep them off balance, it could make a difference. If the TEs are active and getting the ball, I think we have a great chance at winning this game.