Yesterday, I presented some data and possibilities for the remaining “contenders” to make the SECCG as well as the CFP 12. Since the scenarios are boundless and technically there are several more teams that could theoretically make the SECCG, I’m attempting to dispel the idea that we should pull for LSU to win out and sit out the SECCG.

Here, there’s no guarantees, because there are other one loss teams they would need to lose to move into the SECCG, so let’s see how that might play out. Reminder, here’s the SECCG participant tie-breaker considerations:

“LSU Wins Out” Scenario 1: TAMU wins out, Tennessee or Georgia wins out – Since TAMU beat LSU, then that would TAMU is in over LSU since they beat LSU head-to-head. Heres where it gets weird. If LSU wins out, that means they beat both Arkansas and Alabama (and later Vanderbilt), both of which are teams Georgia and Tennessee lost to. By element B, a two-loss (though only one loss in the SEC) LSU goes to the SECCG over a one-loss Georgia or Tennessee. This is where Georgia is sitting at home watching the SECCG while Big Game Brian coaches the same team that lost to USC in a rematch game. Georgia likely gets a 5 seed, at home, versus a #12 seed. Or do they?

This is my core problem with that. Imagine being ranked in the top three of the country and not getting a first round bye, or even a chance to play in the SECCG. The first SECCG in the new expanded league, at that. You’re either comfortable with that or you’re not, but that would be the optics. Granted, I think that might add fuel to the disrespect fire that Kirby warms his heart by, but it also means facing a rested and well-prepared opponent in round 2, who would’ve had a good bit of time to prep for one of two possibilities, and if that opponent rhymes with Boregon, that could be some real serious shit to deal with. Nothing like facing a hyped up Group of 5 or a disrespected Power 4 conference championship loser as a 12 seed, followed by a well-prepared conference champ. While I get some people believe in the “rest up and get healthy”, you can do that after the SECCG, and you get time to prepare for your opponent in round 2 (provided you win, which I believe Georgia would if we faced TAMU). You have intel and film on two possibilities and can adequately ready for it, to boot. And you have the CFP bye week to rest already, then a week after to prepare for the winner from round one and solidify strategy.

“LSU Wins Out” Scenario 2: Texas wins out, Tennessee or Georgia wins out – Tie-breaker, bitches! Let’s say Georgia, Texas, and LSU all are left with one conference loss. This is the simplest of scenarios. Georgia gets in over Texas, as Georgia beat Texas head to head (decision element A), but that leaves Texas and LSU to consider using element B. Texas would be in (deservedly so) as their highest ranked common opponent would be TAMU, which LSU lost to, but Texas beat. Georgia faces Texas in a rematch. In Atlanta. The rematch the Longhorns have been screaming for occurs, they get to play their “complete” game (apparently they didn’t put it all out in the table in game 1, though they did throw it all over the field), and lose 45-0. I hear they will install netting around the Texas seats like in MLB stadiums behind home plate so the asshats can’t throw things on the field. Fun times.

If Tennessee were to win out, now it gets interesting… you’re looking at another scenario where common opponents are used…neither of the three played head-to-head, so you start looking at common opponents. Tennessee beat Georgia which beat Texas. LSU beat Alabama which beat Tennessee. Texas beat TAMU which beat LSU. Move to element C…win versus the highest ranked common opponent…this would give the advantage to Texas and Tennessee, who would be in based on the highest ranked win, which would be Georgia and TAMU over a three loss Alabama. Texas versus Tennessee in the SECCG. Just burn the Benz down, please. Battle of the “who is the real UT” would be nauseating and I hate this scenario already. Matthew McConaughey versus Morgan Wallen. Yeesh.

“LSU Wins Out” Wilder Scenario 3: TAMU loses to Texas, Texas loses to Arkansas, Tennessee loses to Georgia, Georgia loses to Ole Miss – LSU is in with one conference loss (seems absurd, but it’s a reality), but here’s where it gets interesting, in the weirdest of ways. This would mean you have a two loss Ole Miss, two loss Texas, two loss TAMU, two loss Georgia, and two loss Tennessee. All four of those teams would’ve lost to each other in head to heads, so when looking at records against common opponents for qualifier B, which is hard to find when comparing across four opponents, suddenly you arrive at the most important SEC teams in breaking a four-team tie breaker for entry into the SECCG:

Florida and Mississippi State

Given the scenario above, it kind of makes this weekend’s game a little more significant, does it not? As it would for TAMU and Ole Miss, who gave Florida after Georgia does. But it gets worse from here.

According to level C, if I’m reading it correctly, it still looks at record against the highest ranked common opponent, which would likely be Florida, and if all teams beats Florida the record is the same, so we move to D. This incorporates the cumulative conference win percentage of all the conference opponents for each team. It’s hard to say what that would be by season’s end, but let’s hypothesize that the strength of schedule here kicks in, where we know that Georgia’s strength of schedule likely puts Georgia near the top of this list given the opponents (and likely knocks out Texas), but let’s say that Georgia is tied in this regard with Ole Miss. You move to level E, which now examines the scoring margin between the two teams against conference opponents. This is where things like a one point win against Kentucky and not blowing the brakes off of Texas and Mississippi State could bite us in the ass.

Note: I think my brain defragmented writing this last scenario, so feel free to check my work and direct me where I’m wrong here.

I also realize there’s another option in this scenario…

TAMU Wins Out, LSU loses, Georgia wins Out – Here, Georgia faces TAMU in the SECCG. As I said before, I think we would beat A&M, but what if we lost? Then you’re looking at a 5-8 seed at worst, but you played the extra conference game and you’ll have to play a first round game, to boot. No rest for the weary and in this case a CCG loser is faced with playing the max schedule of 17 games.

Well, whoop-de-do! What does it all mean, Basil? In short, and it sounds like press conference coach speak, but the thing Georgia needs to focus on is just winning. Keep grinding, keep winning, be the SEC Champ as we knew we should be even with the addition of the Big 12 prima-donnas, and get a first round bye. Leave nothing to doubt, and firmly plant your foot on the throat of the ever changing landscape of college football and make sure they know that Georgia is the king of college football and that there’s no new Sheriff in town, Kirby’s on the mother fucker.

Go ‘Dawgs!