I’ve been seeing a lot of the predictive talk out there about what may or may not happen in the games leading up to the SECCG and CFP. With the announcement of the first CFP coming next week, it’s interesting to pause at the slightly-more-than-halfway point of the season and think about the scenarios that may play out over the remaining weeks of the season.

Today, I’m presenting some analytics, and I’ll use Georgia’s data table to explain what you’re looking at with the numbers and colors and so forth in the other six data sets. Here’s Georgia’s:

• Straight Up FEI vs. FEI – Using FEI, this shows the team’s aggregate FEI compared to the listed opponents. Green is used here to show the team with the higher FEI score.
• When Georgia is on Offense – Compares Georgia’s Offensive FEI to the Opponent’s Defensive FEI.
• When Georgia is on Defense – Compares Georgia’s Defensive FEI to the Opponent’s Offensive FEI.
• When Georgia is on Special Teams – you get the picture, right?
• Sagarin and Connelly’s SP+ – Using two reliable data sets, Sagarin’s Predictor is found based on the Predictor score for the team compared the others’. The difference is used to anticipate the point spread in a possible head to head. Connelly’s is based on his Week 9 SP+ score, and difference between the two opponents’ scores. Green suggests a comfortable predicted margin, yellow is a tight margin, red is a predicted loss. Orange, in this case, is one where the Sagarin and Connelly spreads don’t match (this only happens in the Georgia vs. Ole Miss game).
• Team FEI vs. Opp. Ave FEI – This shows the team’s FEI relative to the average of the opponent’s FEI. This was color-coded across all teams. Dark green represents a relatively high FEI ranking, the darker the red reflects a relatively low ranking compared to other. In cases where the color is pink/white/or light green, the numbers are closer to the mean.
• The same is done with the final two columns, where the average spreads are calculated based on the remaining games. The darker the green, the wider the predicted margin of victory for remaining games would be.

Here’s the rest of the theoretical contenders:

One-Loss Teams and Remaining Schedules:

Theoretically Easiest Pathway to CFP/SECCG – Tennessee – I believe Tennessee has the best chance to finish out with only one loss. Their biggest problem – Georgia, in Athens. A fanbase that will be starving to finally have a marquee game in Athens will be on full throttle, no matter if this is a 7:30 pm kick or a 7:30 am kick. Whether Georgia is unscathed by that point remains up for argument, but if Tennessee can get over the hump and defeat the Dawgs, they are a sure in to the SECCG and likely the CFP conversation should they sustain a loss in an appearance in Atlanta. If Tennessee loses, they should still be in the mix of conversation around two-loss SEC teams when the committee goes to the table for the final time. Note I said “easiest”…outside of Georgia, they’ve got a cupcake schedule so they really only have to win one big game. Of course, we say that every year, don’t we.

No Room for Error – Texas – Texas, on the other hand, looks good and optimistic on paper; however, the remaining games are all challenges outside of the soft-scheduled padding they used to get these metrics before meeting Georgia in Austin. Remaining games against Florida, Arkansas, and Texas A&M are all a lot harder on the playing field than the data might seem. When Arkansas’s QB in on point, they are a real, real problem, and let’s not forget that Texas’s vaunted defense still hasn’t seen a humming offense yet. While they should finish with only one loss by the Dawgs, whether they do or not is another question. If Texas takes an L anywhere in the remaining games, they’re not only out of the SECCG but likely out of the CFP picture, too. The soft schedule should be considered when deciding on the 5-12 seeds…but there again, who knows if fans will throw water bottles on selection day just to watch the first ever reversal of committee decision to allow Texas to head on the playoffs.

Should Make It, But I Could See Them Getting Screwed – Texas A&M – One thing about TAMU that is keeping them down in the polls is perception. When you look at the remaining games for the Aggies, one would think “beat Texas and you’re in”, but let’s say Texas loses before meeting the Aggies to Arkansas or Florida, and LSU drops a game to Alabama, then another to Florida a week later. If Notre Dame stumbles on their schedule, A&M’s signature wins don’t look so stellar. If all that happens, and the Aggies make the SECCG against Tennessee, Georgia, or Alabama, I can see the committee favoring one of those teams that didn’t make it to the SECCG over A&M. As an example:

• Two-loss Alabama versus TAMU, Alabama wins, TAMU gets second loss. Two-loss Georgia would likely get a pick before A&M.
• One-loss Tennessee versus TAMU, Tennessee wins… the committee would have to argue between two-loss Alabama and two-loss Georgia over TAMU, with TAMU being the likely third option. And they might even go with Alabama AND Georgia leaving TAMU outside looking in.
• One-loss Georgia versus TAMU, Georgia wins…same argument as above ensues. What would be interesting here is looking at the losses – TAMU would’ve lost to Notre Dame and Georgia, Alabama lost to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, and Tennessee lost to Georgia and Arkansas. TAMU would certainly seem to have the better optics, but I’ve seen stranger things happen.

That’s assuming, of course, that Texas is A&M’s lone challenge, which they’re not. Outside of Ole Miss they have the toughest road to hoe per Sagarin and FPI, and trust when I say that South Carolina in Columbia isn’t an easy out, especially with Carolina’s ungodly defensive front giving whoever TAMU’s quarterback is going to be this Saturday.

Most Likely to Make the CFP with Another Loss – Georgia – Between strength of schedule and gauntlet they’ve already endured, Georgia could take another loss and easily still be considered to make the field of 12, especially if said loss is to Tennessee. Additional consideration should go in to the fact that three of Georgia’s final games are heated rivalries, and two of their final five are against teams that are in the upper realms of Sagarin, FEI, and SP+. No doubt Georgia wants to win out, but in doing so, at what cost? Four out of FIVE remaining games will prove to be tough battles…would Georgia be walking wounded headed into a SECCG? Would we benefit from having the week off to recoup?

Doesn’t Stand a Chance – LSU – Granted, they have two losses, but only one in conference. When you look at their data, LSU has the narrowest average spreads of all remaining contenders, and there is also less of a gap between theirs and their opponents’ FEIs. Games against Alabama and Florida I think are likely losses, and Vanderbilt or Oklahoma could always shake things up, but I don’t see how LSU survives. Another loss and it’s all over, with that loss to a .500 USC really sticking out like a sore thumb against their resume.

The Two-Loss Teams – Who is most likely to win out?

When it comes to the metrics across the board, both Sagarin and Connelly seem to match in their assessment of Alabama’s remaining games. If they get past LSU this weekend they should be able to coast through the remainder of the schedule. Although DeBoer made the error of saying the Auburn game isn’t the biggest rivalry anymore, I don’t think locker room banter is going to be enough to make the Auburn contest a nail-biter, but stranger things have occurred. Alabama has the best chance to win out, albeit it they’d need several chips to fall to be in the SECCG, but a two-loss Alabama team would very likely be in the CFP 12, whether we like it or not, thanks to their win against Georgia.

Lane has to be scratching his head and asking what he did to deserve this. Well, honestly, everything, Lane. Ole Miss has to travel to Arkansas and Florida, gets Georgia at home to a coach who likely despises every moment he had to spend on a sideline with him during his years in Tuscaloosa, and you cap it off with a Friday night game against Mississippi State, who has progressively been more of an annoying problem each week since the season started. The final score in that one could easily be something in the realm of 63-60. I don’t see Ole Miss surviving that four game gauntlet without at least one loss, possibly more. Their predicted spreads are incredibly tight relative to the rest of the teams save for Texas A&M, who has the benefit of only losing once this year.

Best Chance to Be in the SECCG: Texas, Tennessee, or Georgia

Best Chances to Be in the CFP 12: Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Georgia, or Alabama

Most Likely to Make Neither: LSU, Ole Miss

Most Likely to Be “Snubbed”: Texas A&M, Alabama

Coming Friday – Part 2 – The Scenarios, Oh the Scenarios…who faces who and where if the dominoes start to fall?