More narrative is coming from the Louisville contingency that is trying to reform the wild, wild, west of college football. In this article by Larry Benz, he points out that the Portal may be enticing, but for many, it doesn’t materialize into that greener grass.
In 2023 alone, more than 31,000 student-athletes across all NCAA divisions entered the transfer portal. In Division I — the level where the stakes are highest and the scholarship dollars are largest — the numbers have grown every year since the portal launched in 2018. By 2024, unlimited transfers were authorized. No restrictions. No limits. Enter as many times as you
want. The 2025-26 cycle has arrived with even greater numbers — each year setting a new record for how many athletes declare themselves available, and each year the market absorbs fewer of them proportionally than the year before.
Nobody asked what happens to the ones nobody wants.
31 percent of Division I athletes who entered the portal between
August 2023 and July 2024 never found a new school at the same level.
That is the NCAA’s own data.Thirty-one percent. That translates to somewhere north of 17,000 athletes per year who enter the portal, wait, and hear nothing. Some drop to lower divisions. Some sign with community colleges. Some leave organized sports entirely. And some — like the former three-star recruit at a Power conference school, quoted in Northwestern’s Medill Reports last January — spend a full
year sitting at home, watching their former teammates play on television, while their eligibility clock keeps running and their scholarship has been handed to someone else.
In football, where the stakes are highest and the mythology of opportunity is loudest, the numbers are worse. According to the NCAA’s own data, 40 percent of scholarship FBS players who enter the transfer portal do not find scholarships at a comparable level on the other side. Forty percent. In a typical Division I football program, coaches have 15 to 20 scholarship slots
available in any given year — split between high school recruits and transfers. With over 2,900 scholarship FBS players entering the portal in a single cycle, the math is not complicated. Supply crushes demand. Coaches become extraordinarily selective. And the athletes who entered the portal expecting a scholarship offer discover that they are one of hundreds of resumes on a coach’s desk who has no obligation to call any of them back.Men’s basketball is in even more dramatic shape. In the 2025 spring portal window, more than 2,400 Division I men’s basketball players entered — representing over 40 percent of all DI men’s basketball players simultaneously declaring themselves available. Based on current cycle
data, 30 to 40 percent of those players will not find a new school at the same level. Rick Pitino at St. John’s announced he wouldn’t recruit a single high school player — his roster would be built entirely through the portal. He is not the exception. This is the trend. And the consequence is that the recruiting pipeline for 17-year-olds who grew up dreaming of a Division I scholarship is
quietly being replaced by a marketplace that prefers experienced commodities.There’s a phrase for this in business: a buyer’s market. And in this case the sellers — the athletes — are carrying all the risk.
But we’re doing it al for the kids, amirite? While there’s definitely an upside for the Carson Becks and Damon Wilsons of the world, many of the guys hitting the fence and testing the waters on the other side are finding not only no pasture, but no future. While some may say that’s the breaks, and that’s what you get for being greedy rather than remaining with your commitment, it does give one pause to think that a system that seems to have no structure or organization just allows this to keep happening.
On one side, you’ve got what some see as a balancing between the days of under the table shenanigans that built power programs to now where other programs can do the same over the table and utilize their vast and powerful donor network to buy a championship. On the other, you’ve got people who advocate that this is long overdue and players should’ve been compensated for their performance and revenue injection into the athletic departments and communities.
In the middle, though, is the reality – there is no perfect system. Not unless you really had equity in resources, scholarships, and player compensation – across all sports – which you never will. There have been few examples of female athletes signing mega-NIL deals (I say few, I know they exist) and we likewise don’t see this as much in the Olympic sports at colleges, either. For a system that limited revenue-generating programs from running the athletic department under the umbrella of Title IX, it’s sure odd how the discussion around equal compensation for other sports and genders isn’t louder now than expected.
Between it all – equity, lost opportunities, and a reckless open-market where athletes are seeing their careers stall or end – it doesn’t seem like it’s working for the majority of those it was meant to serve, the athletes. Never mind the students, who the article suggests aren’t even landing scholarships after the portal, but the athlete compensation that was dreamed about isn’t even working as those who advocated for it had expected.
But it does seem to bring in TV revenue, doesn’t it?
And that’s all that matters.
“While some may say that’s the breaks, and that’s what you get for being greedy rather than remaining with you(r) commitment”
Players are greedy? Gimmie a break! What percentage of kids are TOLD to enter the portal by their school/HC? Deion jettisoned the whole team, give or take a couple kids. He’s far from being the lone HC practicing roster management.
If you’re arguing there needs to be rules, I’m with you. But I pay to watch the product (players), not to watch coaches or administrators. The kids deserve the lions share of money. Rules should be made to protect the players interests first and foremost, not the coaches and not the suits.
Bullshit. You just need actual amateurism rules and you enforce them. The biggest problem with enforcement was the right to remain silent. Great rule in criminal courts.
In other areas of life its complete horseshit.
For $cam to be able to lawyer up and shut up made a mockery the whole thing.
If you ask your employee if they stole the office microwave and they show up with counsel, you fire their ass.
The ncaa should be no different.
Set the rules. If there are problems, you investigate and require cooperation. Failure to cooperate and/or be honest and you’re done.
The powers that be didn’t want to do that for the same reason MLB didn’t want to know about steroids.
The fact of the matter is the DP for SMU cost people money. So they didn’t do the same to Clemson, Auburn or Florida. Tho all deserved it.
That being said, I have never suggested that the rules shouldn’t allow for a reasonable and fair stipend for all scholar athletes.
Programs and conferences should and would be incentivized to provide attractive packages to attract top talent.
We’ve known about these issues of gaming the system since at least the 1960’s. College sports, like the rest of society, would rather avoid doing the right thing if it risks costing them a gd dime.
What does that lead to?
Saban issues more medical redshirts in his first few months at bama than had been granted nationally over several years. And he’s feted as a college football hero. I say “ick!”
Meanwhile, CMR is keeping guys on scholarship who may never walk again and is called soft or a loser.
Its an upside down world with very, very few clean hands.
There may be some unsolvable or intractable problems in this world. A fair system in college sports ain’t one of them.
Setting up college sports so you don’t lose antitrust lawsuits is possible. But the moneyed interests would rather the money keep flowing than risk disrupting the flow. And they ain’t getting an antitrust exemption.
Agree
Sorry but dirty recruiting didn’t start in the 1960’s. It goes all the way back to the infancy of college sports. Yale had a slush fund of $100k in the late 1800’s. There was a survey done in 1929 and 70%+ of the college football programs volunteered they were cheating.
The fact is that by tying eligibility to amateurism, the insitution has corrupted college athletics and every change the rules has been a band-aid.
Going back is not an option.
Find a solution that compensates athletes, changes the system so everyone is not a free agent every year and hold administrators, coaches and players to the contract.
There was a time academics prevented a lot of transfers. Is everyone now academically eligible?
On another note I see holier than thou tOSU lost their president due to ethics. I’m shocked another b10/16 official is fired due to ethics.
I have remarked for the longest that “student athlete” is now a joke. I can’t recall the last time hearing of a player being declared ineligible due to academics (maybe the 3rd string punter at a D-III school). There is a much higher rate of athletes with subpar academics than in the general student population. They are being admitted to a school due to their athletic talent, yet they ALL seem to remain academically eligible. If you look at the attrition rate in the general student population, you expect at least that level of academic attrition in athletes if not higher. Let’s all be real here. Only a small percentage of them are still “STUDENT” athletes.
While I know it existed before, COVID really accelerated the “remote learning” bullshit at warp speed. It’s funny in a sad way what Mylan Graham said was the biggest adjustment about transferring from anOSU to ND: “You actually have to go to class in person.”
Jan Kemp must be spinning in her grave (which, by the way, should be in hell).
This is why the portal process has not changed. Coaches can get rid of players they do not want.
The number 1 thru 10 reason a player enters the transfer portal is always about the money. Playing time is a galaxy wide second place reason. We got to the current system because players needed to be compensated, which I agree with. The slant on the report appears to be about the poor little athlete. The sermon that needs preaching is if you took NIL funds walking in the door, you may want to save a few of those bucks in case you make a poor decision, but of course its the systems’ fault. Entering the transfer portal and expecting/demanding to be paid greater than my prior agreement is not a guarantee. Life is hard and not fair all the time, the price of education is costly. There will ALWAYS be a risk, the lack of understanding this basic element is not the systems fault. Here endith the lesson.
Out of state cost of attendance at UGA is around 50k. Just saying.
There seems to be 3 reasons for entering the transfer portal. Money or desperation. The money guys are looking for more money but the desperation guys have found out 1. they are not the second coming of Hershel Walker and won’t see the field at their current school or the coach is going to cut them. I don’t know the stats but all we fans hear about is the player that transfers for more money. How many players end their Division I careers by transferring down to a lower level team? This is a system that seems to throw the baby out with the bath water.
Because of the lack of rules, that’s pretty much how a team has to operate today. To remain competitive you need to reward greedy transfers at the expense of guys that committed to you. All the players see this and act accordingly. What a shit show this sport has become.
I am closer to quitting college football than looking forward to next season. Closer…not done but the momentum is definitely the wrong direction.
Been eeking a bit closer each year for a while now …..it’s coming sooner rather than later.
At least they now have the freedom to make a decision.
Good or Bad, they have a choice.
Can’t ask for more than that.
SCREW the University administration that has always screwed the athletes
At least for Olympic athletes, I think they are getting what NIL was envisioned as for all sports when it was first brought about. Niche brand deals, some extra gear – social media posts. That still happens. If they are big enough (Olympic level) they might get a national thing, or just more $$. I still remember 15ish years ago when the Olympic snowboarder that attended Colorado on a scholarship had to repay all the brand money he made from the Olympics to get his degree. So we’re being stupid on both ends of the spectrum, which checks out for America this Century.