In today’s trial, we are going to examine evidence in the Case Against Carson Beck, that he has lost confidence in his receivers. I present into evidence a few key facts to discuss in today’s case:

• Beck is attempting 4 more passes per game in 2024 than in 2023
• 5 of Beck’s interceptions have come on first down, another three have come on second down
• In games where Beck throws interceptions, the Georgia offense is scoring more points (see below)

Regarding the first bit of evidence, Beck is attempting roughly four more passes per game this year than last, which could be because of the Mississippi State and Florida games alone. To be fair, those two games were the best possibilities for Beck to toss the rock and get mammoth stats, as both defenses were on the lower end of DFEI this season, so strategy pointed in the direction of moar passing, to which the Beck abided.

In this case, how would a QB lacking confidence in his receiving corps execute such a plan? Let’s face it, his receiving targets – primarily the WRs and TEs – haven’t played optimally, which might lead to seeing that the fourth and sixth leading receivers on the team are running backs (omitting Young, who I can only assume is done with the team…maybe, more on that in another post).

Quick question – who was Beck’s leading receiver last year? Yep, that would be Brock Bowers.

Who was number 2? That would be Dom Lovett, and 3rd was Rosemy-Jacksaint. (Ladd was 4th). Daijun Edwards was the 8th leading receiver as a running back, with everyone above that being receivers or tight ends.

What’s lost in the stats above are targets, which obviously exceed the receptions. I don’t have a number, but I’d imagine most of the failed attempts (targets) are either poor throws, dropped balls, or interceptions. But which of those three stands out the most when it comes to the pass catcher?

Drops.

Who are the most egregious offenders in this case? Notably, Lovett and Smith, but both lead the team in receptions. If confidence was lost in his receivers, then why is Beck targeting these guys so much to where they lead the team? And why would others on the team have a single reception outside of them if the confidence wasn’t there?

Since we are talking targets, we can’t deny that the absence of a Brock Bowers on the field certainly relaxes a defense, which can read and react more to plays and formations when they’re not worried about where number 19 is at in the field. Ditto when Bowers and McConkey were both on the field.

Note the decline in Delp’s performance this year, and consider that Delp’s reps have increased this year and he doesn’t have the luxury of playing opposite of arguably the best TE in college football history. Hartley is still here, and I’m sure his approaches to coaching haven’t changed, so the absence of other playmakers increases the work load but also narrows the focus on defending your zone or your man easier.

That being included, the WR group has similar challenges. The dwindling depth has increased the reps and workload for receivers. That means more targets, more opportunities…and more opportunities for bad. Combine all this together, and the group is seeing the field more and seeing defenders in their space more than they may have last year. The coverage is tighter, the space is less, and the freshness with subbing in and out is decreased for the group.

Yet Beck keeps slinging it. While it would be easier to check down or audible to arguably the best offensive weapon all game long – Etienne – he still throws to his pass catchers and does so at an uptick compared to last year. And even when the passes are errant, somehow, the team scores more. That could be because more attempts inevitably leads to more opportunities for interceptions, which seems to be the trend. Maybe.

Verdict: Not Guilty. I believe there is insufficient evidence that Beck doesn’t trust his receivers and doesn’t want to get the ball to them. Nor does it mean the group is terrible, it’s just they’ve lost the benefit of having distractors to the defense that they had in the past, so the catches are going to come harder than in the past. Maybe it’s the scheme…

Which leads us to the final argument in the Cases against Carson Beck tomorrow…it’s Bobo’s fault, right?