I had been doing this on Thursday, but I’m also at a point where I wanted to wrap this up and complete the series on offensive analysis regarding the offensive progress from 2021-2024. From the previous data dives, we saw that 2022 and 2023 were both stellar years on offense, and I don’t think I need to elaborate much more on the experience that was 2024.

Key Findings:

• Out of the four years analyzed, 2024 faced the toughest opponent defensive yards per play, and it wasn’t close. The highest average rank prior in opponent defensive ypp was in 2021, at 67.1 on average, and 2024 was on average a 51.3 ranking.
• Speaking of opponent defensive yards per play, Georgia faced 5 of the top 25 DYPP defenses in 2024. Prior to, they had only faced two, in 2021, which was game one against Clemson (#4 in DYPP) and 2023 Kentucky (#16 in DYPP).
• In 2024, the five top 25 DYPP teams were Alabama (#21), Auburn (#19), Texas (#2), Ole Miss (#4), and Tennessee (#12). Georgia lost to two of those teams, but won four games against the other three.
• While the average pass yards were the second highest in the four year stretch, the run game took this biggest hit, falling to the lowest season average at 124.8 per game, down from the previously lowest average of 188 in 2023.
• Penatly yards per game for Georgia was also highest in 2024, at 52.8 per game.
• Turnovers were a big deal. In Georgia’s three regular season wins against these top 25 DYPP teams, the turnover margin was +2. In the two losses, it was a -5. In Georgia’s prior seasons against Clemson in 2021 and Kentucky in 2023 it was -1. Georgia played a super tight game against Clemson and let it all hang out against Kentucky. When you have a wealth of generational offensive talent at your disposal like Carson had in 2023, you can throw a pick or fumble the ball and still win comfortably.
• Georgia’s defense didn’t help on their side of the ball, either. Allowing an average of 22.1 points per game, the highest in the four years, this metric increased every year from the remarkable 6.9 points per game in 2021. The Georgia defense never allowed an opponent in the regular season to score more than 20 points even one time; three times in 2022, six times in 2023, and six times again in 2024. Notably, in 2024, the defense surrendered more than 30 points three times (Alabama, Mississippi State, and Georgia Tech). It was the first time the defense surrendered more than 30 points in games in the four year data study.

Georgia YPP versus Opponent YPP

It’s scary to think what might have happened if Tech, Mississippi State, and Kentucky all had better defenses. In the case of the Kentucky and Tech games, let’s say that the defensive strategy matched well with the offensive weaknesses. Limiting the run game, taking away the short pass game, and keeping Beck flustered paid off in what were closer than necessary games.

Likewise, color me surprised at the success we were able to generate against Texas, Auburn, and Tennessee. None of them were pretty, although there were times in each where the offense looked highly effective then would about-face and look grossly inept. Interceptions, dropped passes, and attempts for loss does that to a team that doesn’t have the X factor player on the offensive side of the ball. When in doubt in the past, McConkey or Bowers could be relied upon to provide the catalyst to a comeback or to wake a sleeping giant. Georgia didn’t have that, and it showed.

The Georgia points per game (32.8) was the lowest in the four year span of time, with the previous versions only scoring below 20 points twice (2021 Clemson, 10 points, and 2022 Kentucky, 16 points). Georgia hit this mark twice in 2024 alone, against Kentucky with 13 points and Ole Miss with 10. Problem is, on paper, anyway, Kentucky’s defense wasn’t as strong as that result looks.

We were a Dan Jackson play away from achieving that mark against Georgia Tech, as well. And that was against the 87th ranked DYPP team in the nation.

The Offensive Breakdown

The offensive yards per game mark of 418.6 was a sharp fall off from 2023, which yielded the four-year high of 490 yards per game. That sounds drastic, until you consider that the yards per game metric in 2021 was only 438.

What’s telling is the breakdown in the change in offensive strategy revealed through these numbers. For the first time in the four years, there were more pass plays per game than run plays, and the rushing yards per play average of 4.04 was a full yard lower than 2023’s of 5.26 yards per play. A near yard and a half average difference is a big deal in a game of inches.

While the rush yards per play looks concerning, so, too, should the pass yards per play. Sure, when the run game isn’t working you’re likely to go to more screens and quick hits, which would bring the pass yards per play average down, but at 7.8 yards per play it was down from 2023’s 9.3 pass yards per play. By contrast, 2021, where the fewest pass attempts per game occurred, yielded a 10.1 yards per play.

What the issue with this is, if you’re doing more of something and having less of a positive effect in doing it, you’re not making up for the loss of production from the other side of that metric. If rush yards dropped, the make-up for that would be an increased in pass yards or at least a number similar to the prior year’s. The net effect is the lowest yards per play for offensive possessions in the four year set, and nearly down a full yard from the lowest oypp of 7.0 in 2022.

The Additional Factors

I mentioned before that games shouldn’t have been as close as they were against some teams, and this is where the additional factors play a roll. Georgia’s most penalized games were against Kentucky and Auburn, and the lack of penalties against the opponent impacts this, as well. Nothing can kill momentum and flow quite like a penalty; well, except for turnovers. Think back to Alabama, Mississippi State, Florida, and Ole Miss, and you likely don’t have fond memories. Although two of those were wins, I think we can all agree the outcome of the Mississippi State game left lots to be desired, and even a satisfying win against the Handbags was closer than it needed to be, chiefly due to the interception epidemic that Beck was undergoing at the time.

I’ll try not to mention the Texas game here, as we are aware that there are numbers in those penalty yards that we can all disagree with. What I would like to note is that in Georgia’s second matchup with Texas, following an eight overtime win against Tech and a likely very, very tired Georgia team, the penalties were notably tipped in Georgia’s favor, with 49 yards in penalties for us, and 94 yards in penalties assessed to the Longhorns. I would argue, given what Texas was doing to us and the magic of Gunner Stockton aside, if Texas shoots itself in the foot less we likely don’t win the SECCG and maybe even get knocked out of the playoffs (trust, someone on the CFP Committee was dying to find a way to wiggle in Alabama or Ole Miss).

What Does It All Mean?

Well, when you find yourself standing in the middle of an intersection where injuries, the hardest 2024 schedule imaginable, losses to graduation and the draft, and team chemistry all come together, you’d typically be looking at, at best, a .500 type of schedule. I don’t have to tell anyone around here that there were plenty of years in the 90s where maybe two of those factors were at play in a season and we yielded way worse results, so the fact that Georgia only lost two games in the regular season and won the SECCG is nothing short of a miracle. Hell, if you’re going to write a coffee table book about a two-loss season, at least having a ring to it makes it worthy of printing, but the fact that Georgia faced every factor imaginable listed above and still did it means we need to start thinking about who we can cast as Kirby Smart in the movie.

While we can (and have) try to arrive at who or what was at fault – the offensive line, the receivers, Beck, Bobo, etc.. – it can’t be argued enough that we hit a defensive juggernaut of a wall, and didn’t have the depth and talent that 2021-2023 had on offense. While the offensive line was experienced, defenses, improved as they were in 2024, didn’t have to play any fifth-dimensional chess wondering what to do with Georgia’s offense when they faced them. Taking away the run seemed to be an easier endeavor, and trusting that your secondary can handle Georgia’s depleted receiving room with man-to-man makes the numbers game a problem up front. Five guys can only block so many people, and not having a unicorn in the tight end room like Bowers and especially Darnell Washington effects more than your passing options, it limits the run efficiency and we can’t deny that Georgia spent too much of the season relying on a TRUE freshman running back to carry the load.

Additionally, while I’ve called out the defensive regression on the other side of the ball, alongside the lack of a stout defensive line that was the hallmark of the 21 and 22 teams, I can’t help but think that an offense that spends less time on the field and more time on the sideline (remember when Thorson used to joke that he couldn’t stand Beck because of the lack of work he had to do…those were the days) means a defense is getting gassed and can’t play at as high a level, either. One definitely impacts another, but it’s hard to narrow down that this or that was the critical factor that lead to Georgia’s regression in 2024, at least statistically.

Still, with as many warts as the team had, one can and should point to the schedule and see that as a key contributor to the offense’s statistics. What would be more interesting to see is how the 2022 offense would’ve done with the 2024 schedule, or even the 2023 offense versus the 2024 schedule. But everything – strength of schedule, penalty yards, turnover margin – that are the intangibles were not pointed in the ‘Dawgs favor.

And guess what…we get to do it all over again next year. That’s the potentially bad news. The good news is, we have guys who have now lived it, experienced it, and maybe, just maybe, that will be the intangible that will yield improved success in 2025. If not, well, let’s just say it won’t be a great year to be a coordinator in Athens.