Today’s question – who do you see (currently) as locks for the College Football Playoffs? Here’s a hint:
Hard to see how any of these three are not going to make it…but who are the other nine? Some initial thoughts:
Strong likelihood:
- Oregon – likely runs the table and doesn’t play in the B1G championship game, but is Oregon and a B1G team that will likely get in.
- Alabama – still some questionable games but are undefeated in the SEC and playing at a pretty high level. If they keep at the current pace it’s easy to see how the FSU debacle can be forgiven even if they lose in the SECCG.
- Texas Tech – well, they paid for it, didn’t they? Only one ranked team on the remainder of the schedule, and it’s BYU, in Lubbock.
Contenders:
- Georgia Tech or Virginia – Tech has an easy run of games to end the season and Virginia has been the upstart surprise ACC team this year. One of these two will appear in the ACC championship game and until Crystalballs can prove that he can get out of his own way to coach a full season of competent games, anything is possible.
- BYU or Utah – the Holy War this weekend is big in determining this their fate. The CFP will shove in as many B1G teams in, so these guys control their own destiny in what will likely be just one CFP Big XII rep.
- Georgia, Tennessee, TAMU, Oklahoma, LSU, Vanderbilt – why isn’t A&M a likely? Show me a complete season in College Station first and I’ll believe it. I don’t see Texas leaving Athens with a win and a loss to Florida is hard to overlook, too. Several teams have one conference loss but still carry strong records to vie for a seat at the table.
- Memphis or South Florida – Did you know these two play next weekend? Did you know they were both ranked? Both have the strongest resumes of the G5 group, though Dan Mullen has a case for the Running Rebels of UNLV, too.
Shouldn’t be in, but probably will…
Notre Dame – if they beat USC, that’s all the committee will need to justify cramming the Irish unjustifiably into another playoff.
Won’t be in, but the fan base will bitch that they were robbed:
Probably the same group of SEC teams listed above, for the very reasons listed above. Someone was hurt, the refs screwed us, and so on, will be the pain point for any team from this group that doesn’t get in.
Auburn – hypothetically only has one loss. Also hypothetically has nine national championships. Hypothetically won one the right way with Cam Newton. And so on.
Nebraska or USC – both play each other and USC has the strongest argument, but it’s hard to see Riley’s team beating both Notre Dame and Oregon. If they beat the Huskers, and win one of those two it’s hard to see them being left out, but if they drop two they’ll make the case for having the “quality losses” that got Indiana last year.
What’re your thoughts?
Left Ole Miss off the SEC contenders group. Although perhaps intentional?
Whoops. You’re right. Fingers crossed they’re a non-contender by Saturday at 7:30 pm.
But, but, but the SEC plays cupcakes in November!
Still can’t believe the SEC went to nine games. It is good for the fans, but stupid for the conference in relation to the playoff. Totally unnecessary.
Good for the conference’s and the schools pocketbooks with the extra $$$ from Disney
Outside the 4 conference champions and the G5 qualifier, it will be who ESPN thinks will generate the best ratings. They learned their lesson with a non-conference champion SMU over Alabama last year.
ee knows! It isn’t a real championship playoff. It is a television series like Survivor. Set it uo to keep the contestants the viewers want.
Assuming we finish 10-2 with no appearance in the SECCG and ND finishes 10-2 with no opportunity to play in a championship game and there’s 1 wild card left, who do think gets it, Gaskill?
My bet would be ND, and the committee chair will spin it like nobody’s business. All the while Bob Iger and the ESPN brass are smiling at the other end of the marionette strings.
There are more folks in America who would watch Notre Dame. Ergo, it gets in. The spin would be that ND was 10-0 in it’s last 10 games and we were 8-2 in our last 10 games.
Oh, I should have challenged your premise. If ND is 10-2 it will get a higher seed than 12. In other words, it will not be competing with anyone for the last bid.
The last wild card will be higher than 12. That will be the G5 auto bid.
Kalen, since that opening loss, you’ve kept it tight …
LOL!
And perfect analogy for the end of season tournament.
Nothing to see here, please move along…GO DAWGS!!
How CONVENIENT!
Who cares as long g as the Dawgs are in
It’s like Alabama is never going to go away.
We’ll keep getting our swings.
They damn sure have better luck with qbs than we do….
How long can that last? In this day and age?
That’s the most painful part. It seemed to be slipping away and nope it’s really not.
I’ll add Ole Maid and Mizzou to that list. The beauty of this weekend is that it will eliminate at least 3 teams on the list.
This was Herbie’s dream.
The SEC needs to insist on strength of schedule being the determining factor for teams with similar W-L records getting in.
Indiana… my ass.
I watched Indiana vs Oregon. Either Indiana is for real or Oregon is not. We know Penn State is not
There are exceptions, but I learned a long time ago that the B1G is, by and large, the Yankee version of the ACC with more dedicated media partners that actually believe the hype they generate.
There isn’t a program in the B1G that would have 5 wins if they played Georgia’s schedule…save possibly anOSU.
The bottom 2/3 of that conference is ridiculously bad. Actually..a lot worse than the ACC.
“anOSU” Outstanding! Thank you for that.