Thursday at noon the New Year’s Day triple header starts where the season will end in Miami as the #4 Texas Tech Red Raiders (new money) and the #5 Oregon Ducks (old money) meet in Miami for the privilege of moving on to Atlanta and the Peach Bowl. The last time we saw them Oregon took care of business in Eugene against James Madison while Texas Tech blew out BYU for a second time to win the Big 12. Let’s get to the first look.
Series record: Oregon holds a 3-0 edge in the series.
Last meeting: In 2023, the Ducks went into Lubbock and won 38-30. Oregon scores 20 in the 4th quarter to come back to win. Bo Pix (I can’t resist) has a huge game passing for 369 yards plus pitching in another 46 rushing to power the comeback, and the Oregon defense gets a late pick 6 plus another interception on the game’s final play to ice the win. The real difference in the outcome is -4 … the Red Raiders’ turnover margin.
Gambling degenerate facts: Caesar’s has Oregon as a 2.5 point favorite with a -132 on the moneyline and a point total of 52.5.
How should a refugee watch this game: This game has all of the trappings of the “underdog,” non-blue blood program in Texas Tech against Nike U and its flash on South Beach. A refugee should be watching this game with the mindset of pulling for the team which would be a preferred opponent in a championship game balanced with who could bloody either Alabama or Indiana’s nose in Atlanta next week.
Interesting statistic: 2.89 and 2.44 (net yards per play)
Both teams have been effective this year playing complementary football as the stats above show. Both also have played Charmin soft schedules. Oregon got smacked by Indiana in Eugene while Tech lost at Arizona State without their starting QB. This game is likely won by the team who can play the best complementary game on Thursday.
Early outlook: Both teams are stout against the run and are opportunistic (Texas Tech is +17 for the year in turnover margin!). If Oregon protects the ball, I think the Ducks have too many weapons for the Red Raiders to match up with consistently. If Oregon can’t sustain drives, I wouldn’t be surprised for Texas Tech to take the game into the 4th quarter and pull out the win.
Oregon has a bad taste in their mouth after last year’s debacle in the Rose Bowl where Ohio State embarrassed them as the #1 overall seed. Lanning is getting to be known as one of the best coaches in the sport and would be on any Dawg fan’s list of replacements if Kirby ever decides he has had enough.
Old money gets it done in Miami.
Final Score: Oregon 31, Texas Tech 27
What do you think? Let us know in the comments.
Coach DanLan, must feel like he’s all up in the catbird’s seat. Knocked the rust off but gets to light fires under hindquarters for letting some bums back door cover like they were at Davis’s Mom’s house before playing a team a tad over-seeded. Sort of feel like Dante Moore will make some plays. I think the Ducks roll and possibly pop a cap in the the whole TexasTech is changing college football narrative. We will probably in hindsight thank him for it.
I’ll roll with this take. Oregon in better position to create further havoc in their side of the draw.
Remember Ducks struggled in Eugene v really good defense (Indiana). QB deficiencies, defensive deficiencies v stout defense (all america’s across the board) & mistake free offense. I like TT here. Low scoring but not even close.
TT – 20
Ducks – 9
That’s a fair take right there. I do believe TT needs the game in the 20s to win.
I agree, TEX. I think Texas Tech rolls in this one, winning by 2 scores. Their defense is legit.
I kind of agree with this but I don’t know why. I think it is because Oregon struggled on offense against an Indiana team at home and had difficulty running the ball, beating Penn State by 6 in late-September wasn’t all that impressive, somewhat struggled against Wisconsin, barely beat Iowa by 2, beat USC but gave up yards and points, and didn’t really have much on their schedule. On the other hand, TT didn’t have much on their schedule either other than crushing Utah and beating BYU twice handily. I don’t know. But my gut feeling is TT.
Tech is very similar to Indiana roster-wise. Talented DL, good LBs and DBs, good WRs and RB. Only difference is IU has a better QB than TT. How that makes it shake out in this game is a tough call, as these teams are so close I can’t bet it. Intangibles are a wash as well, other than Oregon having played 2 more playoff games. I could see this just being about turnover differential.
Having not seen TT play anyone other than BYU. I don’t know if that defense is as good as advertised. Watching Oregon play twice I’m not sold on them either. It’s a really interesting matchup I’m looking to.
This is a prove if your legit game for both teams.
I still can’t quite get used to Oregon being considered old money. When I was young, Oregon tucked. They were who you scheduled for homecoming. You kids get off my lawn.
* sucked. Damn autocorrect.
I agree, but compared to TT, they are old money. 😉
Phil Knight is really old, and it’s all his money. So…yeah.
Do not care. Whatever.
Go Illini, throttle them Vols!!
🙂
Hello
Looks like ut has their flop game on point. FTMF
Tennessee’s defensive effort was painful to watch. I know it made you happy. They regressed over the course of the season. I’m sure there were opt outs, but they couldn’t stop anything with consistency.
Once again for those in the back:
FTMF
Go Illini
Hey man
Who’s watching usc-tcu? The play by play guy just said usc is second only to Bama in bowl wins. Of course, WE are second in bowl wins! Georgia’s got them condoms by 3. Anti-UGA, Anti-SEC bias is on display again, ESPN!
Yeah, I caught that to. Corrected the TV in front of my wife, who just rolled her eyes.
We’re second in total bowl appearances and second in total bowl wins to Bama.
BTW, that was a great game last night. Lots of hard defense interspersed with offensive spurts. Some great offensive plays and the ending tightrope for the win in OT. Very enjoyable.
Based on the 12-team playoff era, is evaluating conferences based on bowl game results like evaluating conferences in basketball based on the NIT? Whether you agree that 5 teams should have gotten in, when your 6th best team is your bowl game standard bearer (Texas … snicker), that pushes everyone up the board.
In a 4 team era, Georgia is in the playoff. Ole Miss and Texas A&M are likely in non-NY6 games. Oklahoma is playing in Orlando. Alabama is in Tampa. Texas is in Nashville … and so on.
The fact the SEC had 5 teams (and 7 worthy of consideration) in the playoff is enough evidence that the SEC is the deepest league in the sport. Ohio State and Oregon have the athletes to play in this league and be dangerous. Miami and Notre Dame would be worthy opponents (ND in particular would be tough). Indiana and Texas Tech don’t have the quality depth it would take to survive a 9 game SEC schedule (and that doesn’t mean they don’t have good teams).
My counterpoint is that SEC is shitting the bed in bowl games while the Big Televenteen is undefeated. Opt outs and such affect everybody differently, so it’s hard to tell, but I’m sure we’ll hear all about it. I don’t really care. Just want the Dawgs the last one standing after the tournament ends.
Russ, I don’t think you read my comment.
Missouri – unranked and lost their starting QB midseason lost to a team that could have been in the playoff
LSU – unranked and fired their coach midseason and lost to a ranked Houston team
Tennessee – lost by 2 to an Illinois team they had no business losing to. I’ll give you that one.
Texas A&M lost a playoff game to a Miami team that was as high as #2 in the polls. A&M’s offensively deficiencies caught up to them late in the season. South Carolina was the canary in the coal mine. Texas physically whipped them. Miami’s defense put them in a UFC chokehold.
If the 2 participants in the SECCG win tomorrow, no one is going to care one bit what happened in these lower tier bowl games.