I posted something yesterday about a Twix in where the poster said that a collective of teams who underwhelmingly didn’t beat the spread were “overrated”. As EE commented, that’s some Olympic sized long jumping to a conclusion on overrated versus underrated, and I agree. Personally, my summary of this post can be this, and you can read the rest after:
Kirby Smart doesn’t care about the spread, and could give two shits if you do. Unless it’s Tennessee, where Kirby tries to make a point against the Vowels, or if he’s looking to prove a point altogether.
I looked deeper into the Dawgs historic trek through the ATS tracking from 2016 forward, and I tend to notice a couple of trends:
- If a team is highly regarded and highly ranked, it doesn’t equate to beating Andreas. Likely, the spread is bigger because said team is held in high regard, so the spread is wider and less likely to be beaten.
- If a team is good but not highly regarded, they are likely to beat the spread more often. The number 1 percentage for beating the spread in 2024 went to Arizona State. Case in point.
If your curious, here’s the percentage of games where Georgia beat the spread in the last nine years:
- 2016 – 46.2%
2017 – 73.3% (7th best in all of CFB) - 2018 – 57.1%
2019 – 57.1%
2020 – 40%
2021 – 66.7% (tied for 14th best in CFB) - 2022 – 53.3%
2023 – 38.5%
2024 – 28.6%
So the lowest performance came in 2024. Highest was in 2017 and 2021. What does it mean? Well, hell if I know, but I think I see something here.
In seasons where Georgia has a top flight defense, coupled with an efficient offense, it’s not unusual to see Georgia beat the spread. This is likely because the defense is keeping points off the board while the offense is putting points on the board. Sounds elementary, but think about 2017, which was lead by arguably the best backfield Georgia’s ever seen as a collective in Michel, Chubb, and Swift…plus a lights-out defense featuring shut down guys like Deandre Baker and Roquan Smith. They had a good defensive line, too. Fromm was a good game manager and as we know that makes it hard to beat a team with that much talent on both sides of the ball, plus a deadly accurate and reliable placekicker in Rodrigo Blankenship.
I don’t think I have to elaborate on 2021, which featured an even better defense and a great offense. 2022 and 2023 had better offensive production, but the defense declined slightly in 2022 and 2023, so that narrows the gap when it comes to point spreads.
When it comes to the Fabris Pool, I typically always bet against the Dawgs, except when it comes to Tennessee and Auburn, which seems to be Kirby’s historic whipping boys. I definitely bet against the spread against Kentucky, though I was wrong in 2023 when Beck had his great coming out party that night in Athens. Tech has now become a similar bet for me of late.
I’ll do a follow up to this to see if some of my assumptions above hold true, because I don’t have the time at publication here to look at individual games in that 9 year timeline.
Still, I believe that Kirby, whether in Manball mode or otherwise, favors explosive plays but sound game management and clock control, attempting to minimize the defensive snaps and keep the defense fresh to cause havoc in the game. Whether Georgia covers or not is of little consequence to Kirby, and if Georgia is low or high in this metric definitely doesn’t make them over or underrated.
It’s just how Kirby rolls.
What do you think? How do you bet the Dawgs? What do you notice?
Agree with everything right up to the end where the eventual goal is to create havoc. I’d characterize our D as bend but don’t break. We occasionally create havoc, but I’d be floored if we were actually an annual leader in those defensive stats.
2021 was the definition of havoc. Kirby calculates havoc differently than we do, but if you think he doesn’t want to see TFLs, sacks, 3 and outs and turnovers, I would disagree. He even said one of the root causes of the problems for the offense this year was that the defense wasn’t getting them the ball quickly or in advantageous field position enough.
He’s just not willing to take what he would call unnecessary risks to make it happen.
I learned many, many years ago that if you want to end up with a million dollars betting on Georgia football, start with ten million…. Could GAS about the spread, it means nothing….
You could say that generally about sports wagering. There’s a reason those casinos in Las Vegas are big and grand.
Agree, it seems Kirby values his feel of game control above all. I agree with the exceptions you listed above. I would add Florida to that list because in the words of Kirby “FTMF’s”.
Other than ‘17 & ‘21 I think Vegas is thrilled with Kirby. I would propose the definition of underachievement is a team that covers the spread and goes on to win….nothing. Suspect that applied to some playoff teams and bama and Ole Miss.
It’s the talking season the worst part of the year. I’ll agree Kirby doesn’t normally GAS about the spread. He does enjoy making rivals remember your playing Georgia prepare to get your ass beaten.
Beyond that just win and the faithful will be happy.
I rarely bet Georgia, especially if they are a heavy favorite in an SEC game. CKS doesn’t mind a slobber-knocker, which doesn’t help cover against teams like Kentucky, Missouri, and Georgia Tech (lately). Also, I watch Georgia games because I am a fan and I don’t want to worry about the score as long as we’re on top. On the other hand, on rare occasions when a team like Tennessee (or Arkansas a few years ago) comes in riding a wave of expectation, and Vegas accommodates the public with a line that is set to take their, I really like Georgia and i can’t help myself.
Of course, I could never bet against them, but if I did, I would always bet Alabama. I’m hoping we can erase that curse this year.
looking at the rollercoaster ride, 2025 is shaping up to be a higher percentage of beating the spread.
I think this is mostly accurate. I made some good money in 2021, but it was the first year I felt confident betting on Georgia with regularity. I did well betting them and the under in 2021 and 2022. The last 2 years I’ve backed off, because I won’t put money against them so I’ll just lay off if I don’t like the play. Also, as a fair warning to all, given the fact that 12 teams are making the playoff, I think it’s less likely Kirby tries to cover ANY spread going forward.
Whenever UGA is a heavy favorite, I’ve learned that it usually means that we won’t cover the spread. I prefer beating every single team like they were TCU in the 22 season’s championship game, but I know that Kirby doesn’t seem to care to keep piling on, which I have to admit, bothers me. I want to score as much as possible and to annihilate every opponent and make them never want to play us again. I like to be relaxed and the only way to do that is to make the score so lopsided in our favor that I don’t have to worry about losing.