When taken in totality, it appears that, yes, 2+ is still a major metric. First, let’s examine the final SEC Net YPP:
And final turnover margin:
Notes:
- Given that Texas made the deepest run of any SEC team, it appears the 2+ metric still stands if you want to have a shot at the National Championship (regardless of how you earned it).
- On the flip side, it seems like coaching is a factor. Brian Kelly’s team had three NFL Rookies of the Year candidates, finished above the 2.0 threshold, and didn’t make it last year. This year, it’s Joey Freshwater’s team of mercenaries that didn’t. I’m not crying.
- Auburn should still be studied, for research’s sake. Turnovers are a bitch.
- While I know that there are plenty of critics about Kirby Smart and his coordinators, my biggest head-scratcher of the Kirby Smart era has always been turnovers. For the aggression on defense and “havoc”, we seemingly don’t force turnovers. The Carson Beck mystery alongside a defense that would bend but not break didn’t help the ‘Dawgs chances at all this year. I still argue that the 2024 ‘Dawgs overachieved, and Kirby should’ve been considered more as a COTY candidate than people give him credit for.
What about the rest of the teams, you say? Let’s look at the CFP contenders in this metric:
The table reflects in “Rank” where each team stood overall compared to other BCS teams. Here’s turnover margin:
So, the overall national leader in YPP won the Natty, and with Texas achieving the magical 2 rating, it appears that Ohio State vs. Texas was the real National Championship game, prior to the Irish predictably crapping the bed and looking barely competitive in the final game.
Notably, the Irish benefitted from turnover margin, as did Clemson and Indiana, which I would argue is the result of playing lesser competition with a better defense. Same could be said for ASU and PSU, but also interesting that no SEC CFP team was blowing this metric up, either.
Looking at the field of 12, tell me Georgia didn’t overachieve. While I understand that Georgia prides itself on being “elite”, the product on the field this year was anything but. It was good, but not 2021-2022 elite like Kirby recruits to achieve. To win a SECCG and even make it into CFP was quite an accomplishment of mental grit and willpower.
Now if we can get the execution to follow, we’ll be alright.
Personally, I’d say this concerns me for 2025. In my opinion, it looks like we’ll be rebuilding next year off of the 2024 team.
The question for me is leadership. How connected will this team be? Who will be the Nolan Smith of the 2025 team?
If you add explosiveness on the outside, the team instantly improves. Hopefully, the transfer portal additions will be the solution along with the freshmen coming in at WR and TE. I expect/hope the QB play will be less efficient and more explosive. Otherwise, it’s a line of scrimmage game. Will the OL & DL play better or continue to be inconsistent? That will dictate the ceiling for UGA in 2025.
Nolan Smith was a 1 of 1 leader. Need a leadership group most years. Delp, Frazier and the QB1 on offense; CJ, Miller and Everette on defense.
Reinforces that we were livin’ on the edge all year…..
I’ve said this before.
Those statistics need to have SOS factored into them.
Georgia’s schedule was murderous.
It’s tough to run up impressive stats against that kind of competition.
On the other hand, the failure to pad stats against cupcakes and also-rans like UMASS, MsSt, UK, AU and GT is squarely on the whole team.
24 wasn’t an elite team but they were able to rise to many challenging situations.
Injuries were huge..but everyone has them.
Relapsing with to that old propensity of playing to the level of your opponent (or even below it for the first half of games) is concerning and smells of an end to the current era of UGA’s elite status if Kirby doesn’t know what the problem was and if he doesn’t fix it.
(Not saying it’s an easy call..it could be several factors working together…but it is worrisome to me. YMMV on this and probably does.)
Kirby and this team absolutely overachieved. They led the nation in dropped passes, there were no DL disruptors, OL injuries (as well as RB, LB, etc.), lose the turnover battle and had lots of good but few flashes of great all season. All while playing the toughest schedule the SEC could muster without running afoul of the Geneva Convention, and you still win the conference title.
This team never had the explosiveness on either side of the ball to win it all. It was obvious watching the YPP all season that the team was overachieving. But to win the SEC and earn the 2 seed when you don’t have your best stuff… that’s a heck of a job.
Totally on board with the over achiever, CKS’s best work, etc…
What I can’t put my finger on is the reason for the lifelessness we showed in the second half vs. OM and ND…
We fought and scrapped (for every inch!) all year, but twice it was like we were going through the motions…
I don’t get that. That’s not who we’ve become.
I expected us to come out after the half in NOLA like we did in Pasadena. Instead we can’t cover the ko and never got off the mat.
I can accept being not very good at football. It happens. Seeming indifference for stretches of games is intolerable, especially vs. ND.
We have to get better at ball for sure, but we also need to get that edge back.
And it doesn’t need to come and go.
The magic elixir of CKS has been blending that good old Vince Dooley style of football that tells everyone on the schedule “you aren’t having any fun at all this week because we’re coming for that ass all fucking day” and Saban-style talent acquisition.
Kirby needs to make a similar announcement about spring ball that Vince made back in the day coming off an underwhelming season:
“There will be blood.”
Or, if you prefer the Bear Bryant version:
“Its come time to burn down the barn to kill the rats.”
For all the complaints about the offense (and they are deserved), the defense was not up to the Georgia/Kirby Smart standard. Other than the Clemson, Texas (twice) and Tennessee games, did this defense ever play with a GATA mindset? I didn’t see it.
For my eyes the defense just didn’t have the talented depth like teams that had Jalen Carter as a sub. There were no Alph game wreckers. Just a core of very good when healthy hard nosed quality guys with a big drop off behind them. Poor tackling was too often on display. Something nobody expects from a Kirby Smart team.
Almost everyone agrees for different reasons the offense was a problem.
This team did not overachieve. With the overall talent on this team there should have been no excuse for some of the performances. The team was top 5 in talent and played at times like that and at times like a good mid-major team. This team had a leadership and discipline problem. Poorest tackling Smart team, something that Kirby always was able to put on the field was sure tacklers, that I can think of. All the drops showed a lack of focus. Lots of whiffs on the OL during blocking happened all year. No energy at times. All the traffic issues during the off season was a sign that this team wasn’t mature.
I just find it hard to say this team underperformed, did the record look like I expected before the season, yes. Was winning the SEC an obtainable goal, yes and they did do that. Was being in the playoffs expected, yes and they checked that box. So they preformed but just showed a lot more kinks in the armor than I expected.
Just a few observations. The Sugar Bowl just doesn’t seem to be our jam with Kirby at the helm. The season long flaws/sins of this team all came out against the Irish and popped like a giant zit.
I guess I should have said a couple of observations.
We’ve won 2 of them under Kirby. New Orleans or the Superdome had nothing to do with our loss.
Turnovers, one kick return, and tackle play were the problems. I agree with the 2nd statement.
Will beat this dead horse till it’s dead and buried….Friggin’ dropped passes did in the 2024 UGA football team, no matter the game, the down, the time, the city, the opposition that week….GO DAWGS!!
By and large I much agree. The D was on the field too much too and that’s the offensive problem of not sustaining drives…and turn overs.
Turnovers begin and end at the line of scrimmage. When you’re getting pressure and disrupting the passer vs allowing your QB to be made uncomfortable, that’s where turnovers are caused. This wasn’t close to a good coaching year for Kirby because we didn’t win the line of scrimmage, many times against teams that didn’t have near the talent and depth we had up front. Winning games when you play like shit doesn’t mean you are a well coached team.
I would have to go back and watch every turnover, but some of them this year were due to ball insecurity in the open field and had zero to do with the line of scrimmage. For instance, the play where Back got hurt … he had enough time to throw the Hail Mary (whether we should have done vs. try a long FG is another question), and he waited too long to throw it. A couple of Nate Frazier’s fumbles happened in the open field. A couple of Beck’s interceptions happened with a clean pocket where he just threw the ball where it shouldn’t have gone. The interception in the SECCG by Stockton was a ball that shouldn’t have been thrown and not the stands.
It’s very easy to make the case this was Kirby’s finest coaching job. Last year’s teams had plenty of flaws with very little depth at most positions. The two games lost one in the rain was a total bust on pass protection. The other the ND game could easily had a different outcome if not for two plays. We’re accustomed to those key plays breaking our way.
NIL has removed the quality depth Kirby was able to stockpile in the past. Until there’s a stable set of playing rules that Kirby can overachieve at this is where we are. It’ll take more good luck to survive in the expanding playoff era.
I’d say more an underachiever, not so much offensively, but certainly defensively. Defensively we were loaded with 4 and 5 stars. Both LB’s back, both safeties, Everette back, 3 lineman plus a nice pick up with McLeod. And then two projected first round draft picks in Mykel and Jalon. Plus 5 star Wilson. Yes injuries hurt but I just believe the coaching was not up to UGA standard.
My nightmares this season…Another QB keeper for 8 yards. Another dropped deep ball uncontested. 5* talent does not equal 5* fundamentals. That’s a coaching problem, not credit.