Siri, what color crayon creates the most explosives?

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I only like to tease Mike Bobo with my tongue planted firmly in cheek because I had some interesting interactions with him when we were at Georgia together for a few years, and also because I’m not a professional football coach. That said, I think everyone agrees that if the Dawgs walk into Tuscaloosa with a similar offensive gameplan and execution as last Saturday, they’ll be leaving 3-1. Kalen DeBoer’s Bama is, to the surprise of no one, explosive offensively. And according to Seth Emerson’s recent piece in The Athletic ($$), Georgia better be bringing some explosive plays of their own.

There has been a growing consensus, however, that a stat is very important: Explosive play margin, as in who has more in a game, is heavily indicative of who wins the game. Maybe it was always that way, maybe it means more in this era of higher scoring and more passing, meaning bend-but-don’t-break defenses have the upper hand, and ground-and-pound offenses don’t.

Seth goes on to opine that since getting 3-and-outs has become more difficult over the last 20 years, a bend-but-don’t-break defense that is elite in the red zone may be the best solution, if your offense can’t quite execute enough big plays. Is that possibly what we have in store for us this year? Hell, I’ll take 14 more 1-point wins, even if I’ve got to go on beta blockers to make it to the end. But I’d prefer less stress in the games they should win easily. Bobo and the offensive staff need to unleash the hounds, because eventually (like next week) they’ll run into a team with an offense that can get yards in big chunks. If they can’t keep up with the other team’s explosives, the records based on net explosives are stark in the SEC over the last 5 years:

  • +10 or better: 52-2 (.963)
  • +5 to +9: 153-9 (.944)
  • +1 to +4: 193-61 (.760)
  • Even: 42-38 (.525)
  • -1 to -4: 62-145 (.300)
  • -5 to -9: 10-87 (.103)
  • -10 or worse: 2-16 (.111)

I keed, I keed. I think.

32 thoughts on “Siri, what color crayon creates the most explosives?”

  2. This is good stuff, but explosives have always been a good measure of the team that wins. Explosives flip field position, make it easier to get points (duh), and removes a lot of margin for error. Herschel was an explosive machine especially as a freshman, but notice when teams started saying anyone but you, our offense had to plod even with the GOAT.

    In today’s game, explosive plays generally come from the passing game because the rules are so tilted toward passing offense. Look back to 2022. We were explosive everywhere. Was that because of Godd Monken (the Dumbledore of OCs)? Was it because we had a QB who was willing to take risks with the ball? Was it because the offensive line was equally good run blocking and pass blocking? Was it because we had a generational player at TE who was a match-up nightmare (see what BB is doing now)? I would say it’s a combination. I remember when people bitched about Mike Bobo in the Aaron Murray era that we scored too quickly and we needed to slow it down (RTDB, Bobo, anyone). Now the same people are bitching about Mike Bobo that we don’t score enough? Which is it?

    My gut tells me the reason all of this comes down to the playing rules and the clock rules. If you want to be a high flying offense in today’s game, you better score quickly because possessions are limited and you have to take advantage of the rules.

      • No, but I’d rather keep the stories off the internet. Maybe over beers one day.

    • I can tell you I was never in the RTDB Bobo crowd, other than the South Carolina game tragedy at the goal line.

      • He’ll be rocking on his front porch 15-20 years from now still ruing that play call. Poor play call exaggerated by piss poor execution … sounds like my golf game sometimes.

  3. We need better OL play next week than we got in Kentucky. If that happens, I really do like our chances. It seemed like a monumental task to get any positive yards at all in the run game with the piss poor run blocking we had going on last week.

  4. Anyone who thinks the team and plan for Bama and the plan for KY are the same is not thinking. Some people just like to complain.

    • Agree that the gameplan won’t be the same for any two opponents, but I’m referring to Kirby fairly consistently going conservative on the road in the conference, even against much lesser opponents. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing, as long as you can adjust and win, which he has. But it often feels like they’re playing with fire.

      I agree some folks just like to complain, and I assume you weren’t referring to me because my criticism of Bobo has quite a bit of sarcasm in it.

      • Kirby has shown a tendency to play conservative against Bama/Saban. I’m hoping that was because Kirby was worried about Saban. Now that he’s gone, maybe Kirby will unleash the Dawgs of war.

        • Totally agree, like in the SEC championship last year. Lead off with an explosive drive, then pulled back on the reigns.

      • Sooooooo, your saying we are witnessing dueling Kirby’s, Home CKS (scores 50ish) vs Road CKS (scores 20ish)….very interesting….

      • No just thinking of being in my seats in the stadium and having people a couple of rows behind me who are loudly booing Bobo even when we are winning. It is tiresome to hear them.

  5. I’m sure that we’ll see a more focused and fired up team showing up at Bama. Whether or not we see a better gameplan or better play execution is the question. I don’t see how it could be worse than what we saw at KY, but as we have seen so far this year, teams performance from game to game has been unpredictable and you can’t forecast how a team will play their next game based on a teams previous game (South Carolina/Kentucky & Notre Dame/N. Illinois come to mind).

  7. Please remove this post. The Bobo lovers around here are going to get their collective panties in a bunch.

  9. If bama runs through our DL like the cats did, we’ll have no chance. Stopping the run has been a hallmark of Kirby defenses, so let’s hope he’s got the leaks plugged but injuries are causing problems for sure. We did a fairly good job of containing Milroe last time, expect we’ll spy him again…maybe with 2 on either side…and let our DB’s do their thing against his less than accurate throwing. On offense, we’ve got to hope the OL can find a rhythm for the running game to open up and Beck figures out his “go to” receivers. I think he’s got a couple, but maybe not one of the TE’s which means some tough crossing patterns for WR’s or going deep but risking having more 3 and outs which is going to put too much stress on the D if that happens. Shoot…now I’m all Munsoney.

    Eitienne and Fraiser will show out, the Bobo slip screens will work, Oscar Delp has a coming out party, and we harass Milroe so much he wants to just quit.

    • And London Humphreys– so good against Clemson we’ve had to hide him until the bama game…Right? Right???

      • Thinking Colbie Young could be “that dude”. Clearly just needs to be whomever Carson starts trusting with every tight situation.

    • I think Bama has at least one more hoss on their defense than Kentucky, so we just have to attack their DBs relentlessly. That’s their weakness, along with a couple spots on the front 7. Delp showing out would be enormous.

  10. I trust our defense (if healthy) to be able to hold Bama to 21-24 points (which would be very good IMO) . Unfortunately, I do not trust our offense to score anywhere remotely close to that unless Beck and Bobo get their heads out of their asses.

    This is similar to last year’s SECCG where our defense did enough to win, but it was unacceptable that our offense couldn’t score more than 27 points. Too many wasted possessions due to stupid playcalling.

  12. Look, I am not anti-Bobo but he has often shown an inability to quickly adjust to defenses who has his number from jump, plain and simple. You cannot, with a straight face defend last weeks offensive output. Milroe is gonna put up at least 28 on us if we give back the ball often. Bobo has to adjust more quickly and give up this idea of take what we can get until they break late and the flood gates open. That lost us the natty last year. It is worse now with the new clock rules and less time to catch
    up. Convince me otherwise.

  13. My only problem with Mike is his love of gut-punching (running up the middle to soften up the defense) for little or no gain, while having guys who have the speed to be making plays on the outside.

    Yes, Mike’s strategy usually results in a big play late, but against some of the higher scoring teams we face, we needs points early.

    • You know who signs off on the game plan?

      Kirby Smart. I’m not taking a shot at Kirby. I’m just stating the fact that if he wanted us opening up the playbook from the opening whistle, he would tell Mike to do it.

      In the Clemson and Kentucky games, Kirby knew neither team could consistently drive the field and score TDs against our defense and that continued to get proven out. In the Kentucky game, he should have told Mike to pull out the stops earlier.

      I imagine we’re going to see a very different offensive approach on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa.

  14. I love and trust Kirby. I respect Mike Bobo. I was also at UGA (law school) when they were players so there is a special place in my heart for them.

    My sad prediction that I hate to make: We will not win another title while Bobo is our OC.

    Not because he’s bad. Not because he’s terrible.

    But because this is Kirby’s ONLY weakness (designing explosive offenses) and so he needs an OC that EXCELS at this and allows Kirby to just turn that over completely to the OC and focus entirely on the overall team, the defense, and special teams.

    I really want to be wrong.

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