Texas is Back.

Missouri is finally getting it all together.

LaNorris Sellers is a first round draft pick.

Georgia finally has a pass game.

It’s that annual time of year where, based on a short body of work, we all begin to lose our collective minds and start overreacting and making broad assumptions about teams. Here’s some interesting takes I’ve had so far…

Overreaction: The Biggest Spenders of NIL Aren’t Getting a ROI

Texas looked human against UTSA. TAMU lost to Kentucky. Notre Dame didn’t necessarily look great against the Cretins of Sparta. LSU lost to Ole Miss. Yes, all those things happened. You’re expecting dominance through donations but getting less in return…why?

More Subtle Reality: Roster Management and Parity Rule

Consider the New York Yankees. One of the biggest payrolls in MLB yet can’t seem to win a World Series and are seasonal letdowns against smaller payrolls. Also think of how Texas A&M does this yearly since the Fisher days and has not one ring of anyone to show for it.

The reality is, and can be seen at places like Michigan, Texas, South Carolina, that having a heavy NIL budget doesn’t mean a lot of good players. Hedging your funds on bankrolling a QB and a few skill position players means you’re not investing in the whole team, and when you prioritize a position in such a manner, it means you’re neglecting others. Having a good balance across both sides of the ball yields better teams, but also having a better balance of investing in futures and development likely means a lot more.

Also, those teams who are in the middle tier or lower tier of NIL are now getting to lowball bid quality athletes who can’t command the Arch Manning type deals, but are now playing their asses off for a sweet payday in their final college years or heading for the NFL. This makes for a dangerous team, so some matchups aren’t what they used to be. Places like Troy and UTSA can greatly benefit from this, even if it’s for a short time.

Overreaction: Top Paid Coaches Suck

This is partly true isn’t it? Chiefly because the bidding wars and max payouts for coaches started well before the NIL era, the coaches are at the scrutiny of the most hyper-critical group of people in the world outside of religious zealots: college football fans. Coaches are commanding salaries that are nearly half of their teams total NIL budget, and aren’t winning rings.

More Subtle Reality: The Game Still Has to Be Played

You can pay athletes all you want, but it doesn’t mean they’ll make every perfect decision, every catch, every time. Coaches don’t make every perfect decision. For all the fun everyone’s having around Kiffin’s loss in Oxford, he can’t help that Leavitt is Leavitt and that LSU was shockingly close to pulling a comeback after struggling early in a hostile environment. Balls were dropped, interceptions thrown, and folks were criticizing why Lane went after Leavitt so hard.

Sound familiar?

Are you willing to put Lane and Kirby on the same level of criticism? I’ve got two big reasons why you probably shouldn’t, but you might make that point.

Overreaction: Florida is Back

Florida beat Auburn at Auburn for Sumrall’s signature win in his short Florida tenure, and it looks like Florida is finally putting all the pieces together to start making a run at the SEC again. Finally, Florida has a great football coach…and they’re dangerous.

More Subtle Reality: Buster Faulkner

Let’s not ignore they gave up 39 points to Auburn. Sure, Jaden Baugh is running up insane stats…but he’s supposed to. Florida invested in linemen and the offense, but the defense is iffy and great offensive performances can’t always win games.

Truth is, we knew this about Buster Faulkner. We aren’t happy about it, especially given our criticism of our current OC, but Buster knows what he’s doing.

Do I think Florida will win more games this year than anticipated? I do. Will they beat Georgia? Eh. We’ve seen this show off of North Avenue a few too many times for me to think that.

Will Florida be back for good? Nope…Faulkner can’t keep doing what he’s doing without having someone drive a dump truck full of money to his house to lure him away where his services will be appreciated, and somewhere in the Southeast.