It costs a lot to win and even more to lose

We’ve come to the final installment of the 4 Questions of the 2026 Season. Thanks for all the comments and participation thus far. I think we’re all finally getting excited about the game tomorrow, regardless of how hot it will be in Sanford Stadium at 3pm ET (extremely) or what happens in Baton Rouge and Birmingham today (gah). For this topic, I went big picture.

Can Kirby Smart’s strategy of retention and development still produce a national champion?

So much has changed over the last several years in college football, with exorbitant amounts of money being paid to schools, coaches, and now players. There are no rules, winning is the only rule. Kirby has always been great at in-game strategy micro adjustments and outside the lines macro adjustments. He may move less quickly than some want on some things, but often he sees around corners fans can’t. But the rules of acquiring talent have changed so much and so fast that it’s fair to ask whether the Kirby process is still the best way to win championships.

Georgia has had chances to sign elite QBs, RBs, WRs, DEs, and DBs during times when they needed them and decided to bow out of the bidding wars. To date, it hasn’t hurt their chances of winning the SEC, and maybe with a healthy Beck and a non-Superman performance by Chambliss they make the national championship game the last two years. But the entire sport has leveled at the top where UGA once reigned supreme. Georgia has fallen back a little into a muddled top-10 picture that used to be a top-3 or -4. If they had spent on 1-2 more elite portal guys, would that have been enough? Hard to say.

Kirby has clearly recognized a gap and implemented one big change this year. The seasons are longer now, as teams can play up to 17 games. Does beating the living shit out of each other through fall camp and 3 days a week during the season still make sense, or does resting your stars and seniors have value? It seems like Kirby has decided on the latter, at least during camp, which I think is prudent. Keep the guys fresher for longer, limit injuries, etc. Bloody Tuesdays can still happen to keep the team tougher than the competition.

I’ve said it several times now, but this is almost a national championship roster with a national championship schedule. It’s all laid out as well as it could be, in these times. Stay healthy and get some high level play from a wideout or two and this team can win it all. Losing Amaris Williams sucked, but maybe he can play come January. That was an example of paying for a transfer. I just hope passing on the elite WRs and Safety options they had last winter don’t come back to bite them. If it does, it will be a huge missed opportunity and I think Kirby/Georgia will need to adjust further.

Thats all for now. I’ll have a postgame analysis of the beatdown from Section HD on Sunday morning. Go Dawgs!

12 thoughts on “It costs a lot to win and even more to lose

  1. In Kirby we should still trust. He’s created a culture that other teams can’t buy. And even though he’s aging, he relates better to the South GA kids that play junkyard brand defense than any other coach out there can. He’s one of them in so many ways. Who else can convince players to “eat off the floor?” We don’t always get elite wide receivers because they know we’re a run first offense. Ohio State can have them, we’ll get all the other elite talent that isn’t about themselves before the team. We should consider how we’ve lost the last three postseason games and work on our strategy, but otherwise, we were right there with an opportunity to play for it all. Plus it’s been a weird last three years. Three different Big 10 teams have won the natty, with latest being the unlikeliest. This is our year to get it back. The schedule sets up as well as it can and we’ve got the talent, coaching, and fanbase to get it done! Goooooo Daaaaaawgs!!!

  2. I guess the proof will be in the pudding. I just know with the LSU bullshit there is nearly no semblance of the college football I enjoyed for so many years. Kirby is almost all that is left.

  3. During the lean Richt years, someone asked me what I expect from my team. I said that I would like to be in the hunt every year. I feel like we’re there now. No one wins it all every year, and I highly doubt Saban’s run is going to be repeated in the new age of CFB. Kirby has the ability to sell the NFL to his recruits and players AND be in the hunt every year. I stopped second guessing him after Stetson, clearly he knows what he’s doing. Whatever strategy he has, I know that he will work like hell to make it happen, especially the overall culture. Sure, he’d like to stop the speeding, but it’s obvious each year these players bond with each other. Kudos to Cignutty for assembling a bunch of 29 year olds last year and making it work, but I just don’t think that’s sustainable.

  4. The playoffs are a crap shoot. Just get in.

    You need elite WB play to win it all.

    USA Olympic basketball eventually had to send the pros to beat the pros…that day will come for Kirby too.

  5. I think it’s a year to year thing based on need. Retaining your players is important, so I think that we try to recruit players that WANT to be here (of course, there will be exceptions that will leave if they don’t start) but if there’s a need, go get what you need and I do wonder if we’re doing that as we seem to lose out on the free agents in the portal most of the time as we’re not going to overpay for anyone as the players prove over and over that they care more about money than where they play. Remember when players actually wanted to win?

    • I think they do, but now they have more teams that they can win on because the playing field has leveled. Therefore, more kids will take the money at one of the top 10 schools and hope enough others do the same to build a roster of talented and wealthy kids that can win it all.

  6. Had an interesting read yesterday about how colleges will be forced to resume classroom attendance, particularly testing, going forward. Cheating via AI is so prevalent with remote learning that it devalues a school’s degree. Can a school exist for long if the degrees being awarded are worthless?

    Unless the players are decoupled from the schools entirely they’ll have to attend classes, like the old days. It won’t restore the days of cheating players out of deserved income. But it might restore a barrier to unrestricted movement between schools or returning from the pros.

  7. Kirby’s model has held up so far through NIL doings. One phenomenon is that NIL is causing players to stay in school longer for the most part. I’m haven’t seen hard data, but I’d say the “three and done” model for typical CFB players is history. Assembling older, more mature rosters seems to be the name of the game. Kirby has sort of been marching in the opposite direction. But I’m expecting to see that change soon. For example there is talk they’re modifying the practice schedule a smidge. Its obvious keeping these guys fresh and healthy is critical. The season has become a marathon, not a sprint.

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