Derek and I had a little going back and forth yesterday about the impact of expansion on the CFP and the number of SEC berths that may be available. I had to dive into the rankings and come up with an estimate on how many teams from the expanded SEC would have gotten into the expanded playoff since the CFP was established in 2014. I made one big assumption: I took the highest rated team from a conference and assumed they were the conference champion for purposes of seeding and byes. I did that consistently to try to take out any personal bias, but yes, you’ll see some things you will disagree with. So, without further adieu, here goes with the top 4 plus SEC wild cards/at-larges:

2014 – #1 Alabama (SEC), #2 Oregon (B1G), #3 FSU (ACC), #4 Baylor (Big 12), #7 Mississippi St., #9 Ole Miss – 3 SEC teams
2015 – #1 Clemson (ACC), #2 Alabama (SEC), #3 Michigan St. (B1G), #4 TCU (Big 12), #5 Oklahoma – 2 SEC teams
2016 – #1 Alabama (SEC), #2 Clemson (ACC), #3 Ohio St. (B1G), #4 Colorado (Big 12), #8 Oklahoma – 2 SEC teams
2017 – #1 Clemson (ACC), #2 Oklahoma (SEC), #3 Ohio State (B1G), #4 UCF (Big 12), #5 Georgia, #6 Alabama, #9 Auburn – 4 SEC teams
2018 – #1 Alabama (SEC), #2 Clemson (ACC), #3 Ohio State (B1G), #4 UCF (Big 12), #6 Oklahoma, #7 Georgia, #10 Florida, #11 LSU – 5 SEC teams
2019 – #1 LSU (SEC), #2 Ohio St. (B1G), #3 Clemson (ACC), #4 Baylor (Big 12), #5 Oklahoma, #6 Georgia, #9 Florida – 4 SEC teams
2020 (I know, I know) – #1 Alabama (SEC), #2 Clemson (ACC), #3 Ohio State (B1G), #4 Cincinnati (Big 12), #6 Texas A&M, #7 Oklahoma, #8 Florida, #9 Georgia – 5 SEC teams
2021 – #1 Alabama (SEC), #2 Michigan (B1G), #3 Cincinnati (Big 12), #4 Pitt (ACC), #5 Georgia, #9 Ole Miss – 3 SEC teams
2022 – #1 Georgia (SEC), #2 Michigan (B1G), #3 TCU (Big 12), #4 Clemson (ACC), #7 Alabama, #8 Tennessee – 3 SEC teams
2023 – #1 Michigan (B1G), #2 Texas (SEC), #3 FSU (ACC), #4 Arizona (Big 12), #6 Alabama, #7 Georgia, #10 Missouri – 4 SEC teams

I understand this approach doesn’t take into account the risk of the teams beating up on one another in the SEC, but the couple of things I took from this are:

1. The SEC champion in most years will be poised to take advantage of the #1 seed’s ability to select the location of its quarterfinal and semifinal games. This alone makes winning the SEC mean more.
2. With a few exceptions, the SEC wild cards are more likely to host first round games and make New Year’s an SEC invitational.
3. Our Dawgs are likely to be in the playoff even when experiencing multiple losses.

While I’m not a fan of the expanded playoff, there is no doubt this format will likely have us in the running for national titles year in and year out.

What do you think about this and the likely benefit to the Dawgs and the rest of the SEC?