Playpen 5.21.25

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Another prediction from the November 2024 prediction post seems to be coming true:

“Hopes:

  1. that the GOP takes its austerity language seriously and makes unpopular choices that risks their majorities.  Think LBJ on civil and voting rights, but with policies on spending.  While I may not appreciate the choices and priorities, it would be refreshing to see and it could re-set the country towards a responsible economic future that is very badly needed.

…

Reality: 

  1. no significant and helpful changes in revenue or spending.  The debt curve sees no real change, it actually gets worse, and  we find a way to pass off 40+ trillion of debt on to the next holder of the office.”

How long is it going to take for the shoe to fall? 

Discuss.

27 thoughts on “Playpen 5.21.25”

    • Hard to succor and shelter yourself upon images of gross cruelty to the browns and happy, smiling, newly arrived white Afrikaners. I’m sure it has benefits for some, but there are limits to its political currency especially in a crisis.

  2. Running deficits to fund tax cuts for the wealthy lasts as long as foreigners are willing to finance the debt. And they were willing to do that as long as our military protected them. Looks like that happy arrangement is over.

    Without running a debt we’re either taxing the rich (um, no) or stuck with cutting our safety net and standard of living – austerity. Medicaid is the first shoe to drop. It won’t be the last, because the hands of the rich are ever-grasping for more.

    China is the financial colossus going forward. They’ve exercised patience and determination, and have cornered the market in emerging industries and technologies, be it EVs, solar, biomedicine, rare earths, etc. They’ve got a practical version of AI. We can’t build so much as a phone, car or robot without materials from China.

    And we’re in the process of ditching all gov funded universities research. The immigrants, who actually do all the hard work, are getting the boot. Even our closest allies now hate us. All of which I’m certain China is delighted about.

    Us baby boomers have squandered the vast riches our parents and grandparents left us. Times going forward are going to be a helluva lot harder for our kids and grandkids.

    • 1) China wasn’t the second largest holder (until 2 months ago; now they are 3rd) of us treasuries because we were protecting them. They made the investments because they were safe and it gives them a say. Nothing spoke louder about “liberation day” than the folks dumping t-bills.

      2) Medicaid is the easiest to chop politically but it’ll still be damn hard to maintain the trump coalition if you hurt all those folks who are on it.

      What is frustrating as hell to me is that we could have avoided all of this had we not bought, hook line and sinker, the transparent lies that tax cuts reduce spending AND simultaneously increase revenues. And 37 trillion in debt later, they are still selling the same lies.

      All we needed to do was rid ourselves of ideological nonsense and responsibly invest the largesse that the cold war victory and modern industry produced. Instead we’ve packed all the money into a very few hands and they don’t give a damn about the rest of us and have set us against each other while they fill their pockets.

      When the bill comes due, there is going to be hell to pay. It will not be a soft landing imho.

      Will it be French Revolution? Weimar Republic? Wars of desperation? Who knows, but it ain’t gonna be good.

      If 10,000 gotdam hippies in Florida don’t vote Nader in 2000, we may have missed all this “fun.”

    • As we have discussed previously, from the end of WWII until 1963 we had a top tax rates of 91%. It was 70% until 1981. The top rate dropped to 50% for a few years and has generally hovered in the mid to high 30% range since. Most people do not pay the top rate. Today the average tax rate is in the low teens. We have to raise more revenue. Period. It’s impossible to cut our way out of the debt hole we’ve dug. Unfortunately, we’ve spent decades convincing the public our government can’t be trusted to budget and spend responsibly. So, even folks who know better still support tax cuts. How stupid does a person have to be not to understand that foreign countries will stop buying our debt once we tell them we’re not going to protect them any longer? It’s not a coincidence that Japan holds more U.S. debt than anyone else. The incompetence of the current administration is staggering. The Secretary of Homeland Security literally cannot define habeas corpus. The Secretary of Defense brings his wife to meetings with foreign military counterparts and texts sensitive strike data on a public group chat that included a journalist. These are only two examples of how you know your government and your country are totally screwed. Unfortunately, there are hundreds more.

      • Again, not terribly sure that buying treasuries equals security assurances given who the top buyers are.

        https://www.cnbctv18.com/photos/market/us-treasuries-top-10-countries-with-largest-holdings-china-japan-france-canada-cayman-trump-tariff-impact-yield-19587901.htm/amp

        There are lots of benefits (also responsibilities) to running the world, and there are substantial costs to ceding the field. And that’s what we’re doing: offering over our national irrelevancy.

        You would think that after our sacrifices in two world wars and defeating the ussr, that we’d understand the value and importance of American exceptionalism. But we don’t.

        While incompetence is an issue, the larger one is that these people only care about making themselves richer and more powerful while distracting the rubes with the dangers of 4 trannies who swim good among other lowest common denominator bullshit.

      • Btw, did you see where the WH press secretary said that the head of the Lobrary of Congress was fired because of concerns about the appropriateness of some of the books?

        Its a farce. If you wrote it as comedy the critics would complain that no one is really that stupid.

  3. Keep complaining about not taxing the “rich” enough to continue avoiding the real need to cut spending. You can tax 100% of all the tech bros wealth (which is far more than their income) and you won’t put a dent in the debt. We’ve way overspent and yes, need to cut deep into entitlement programs. But no one wants to make the sacrifice so we scream instead about the few who make the most while the car goes over the cliff.

    Our Founding Fathers missed foreseeing that while not wanting to leave the power of the purse in the Executive branch the House would ultimately spend money to only enrich their political longevity. Term limits and something like a Supreme Court of Finance might have provided the appropriate checks & balances we lack today.

    • We absolutely need to cut spending as much as humanly possible. But that won’t get us where we need to be. I’m not advocating just taxing the rich. Unfortunately, we all need to pay more. That includes businesses. I’m well aware this will not likely happen in my lifetime. I’m old. I just hope I’m dead before the country goes full on Thelma & Louise. I hate it for my grandchildren. But, absent another world war that we win (also highly unlikely), this radical experiment in individualism and democracy is probably going tits up. So, where will that leave us? Socialism or autocracy? There’s no question what our current leader prefers.

    • You have all the levers of power. Do it. Pay down the debt. Balance the budget.

      You folks talk the talk but when it comes down to it you are political cowards.

      If you think continuing spending and not taxing will end well then say it.

      We’ve been on that track for 45 years and all we have to show for it are a handful of multi-billionaires and 37 trillion of debt.

  4. Today’s Pigpen is:

    The Hur tapes prove Joe was non compose mentis; or
    Hunter was actually running the White House; or
    Joe’s staffers were selling the Autopen pardons; or
    Joe has cancer that takes many years to develop; or
    The CDC knew mRNA vaccines caused myocarditis and said nothing.

    All of these stories broke in the last week, but Derek wants to discuss why those meany pants Republicans won’t fix the budget. This is some seriously unserious shit. In the name of truth, can we just rename this feature Derek’s Wet Dream?

    • Where are the Mueller tapes of trump? Oh yeah he refused to talk because his lawyer said trump could not help but perjure himself. What’s worse? Being old and infirm or not being capable of telling the truth?

      Hunter shot JFK.

      And yes all of those yuge stories are bigger than our nation’s credit rating and/or looking into the eye of 60 trillion of debt in 2035. All you need is to huff premium gas for 62 months without a break.

      • Who Started Most all the “Entitlement” programs, huh Derek?

        • What’s an “entitlement program?” Sounds like a made up phrase used to rouse the passions of morons.

  5. Did yall watch me make Ramaphosa watch genocidal video in the WHITE house today?? State run media & Libs would never have allowed such. Our world is quickly being turned back right side up. GBDJT!!!

  6. Myself and several other posters here have raised concerns about printing money, deficit spending and the need for some fiscal sanity in Washington. And most of us have blamed both sides (the Uniparty) for this dereliction of duty. But it was always dismissed by our resident socialist and his fluffers while their guy was in power, but now that they are in the political wilderness its a top priority for. After the Affordable Care Act, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the Green Nude Eel, the American Rescue Plan Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act, all implemented under Obama or Biden, you really want us to believe you give a shit about the deficit? Snarky comeback and deflection in 3….2….1………..

  7. Question: “Medicaid” gets tossed around here ’bout every week. Can anyone explain Medicaid to me (Talk to me like I’m a 5-year-old)? It’s free health care, right?

    • Its heath insurance for people who can’t afford private health insurance. Covers about 40% of American children.

      When old folks go to the public nursing home, that’s covered by medicaid.

    • The care facility gets the old folks social security while their cared for, right? And any assets the old folks might have like a house or savings Medicaid can claim to offset the debt incurred?

      • No expert but that’s my understanding.

        If you can pay, then you pay.

          • Sure. Except draftees. Those are entirely fucking free, soul to asshole. Thats why folks without crooked ass podiatrists refer to them as ‘suckers.’

  8. Methinks somebody is off their meds again…LOL…you can tell when the “F” word starts flying

    • Which of his prediction was worse?

      Victory in Vietnam?

      Civil and Voting rights act would lead to losing to South for one generation?

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